I haven't had much time to trade recently and took a few days off from the ASP system. My welcome back, however, was not exactly blissful, with poor game choices resulting in a miserable Sunday (in betting terms at least). I began the day with my biggest ever loss - £38.50 - as City ran riot at White Heart Lane. Such is the nature of this system that this huge loss could have been a small profit, had I reacted slightly quicker and not been greedy, with Dzeko's goal in the 34th minute being an optimum time for a goal to be scored for this system. Had I reacted before his 41st minute goal I could have turned a nice little profit (in fact I have seen others' spreadsheets and they did turn a profit from this game), but I decided to wait until half time to let the AU price recover a bit, meaning more profit. The second goal inevitably came and any profit I had hoped for was gone.
Another factor which I think is letting me down is my game choice. With the return of the Premier League and Sky's unerring coverage of the football I have found myself picking games which I can watch whilst trading, as well as games which I think I know more about. I find myself justifying the games I have selected, which have gone outside of the filters, by saying things such as 'SURELY they can't...' and surprisingly this isn't that effective. My own 'superior' knowledge of the Premier League is highly distorted and biased, for instance yesterday I didn't believe City would score 4 or more goals because I didn't WANT them to score 4 or more goals, and until I can look at games objectively I don't believe I should use matches which go outside of the set filters.
So after such a morale-crushing decomposition of my inabilities, what now? From today I am going to go back to basics for a short while to see how it pans out. I will stick to the set filters and only trade a few games a day, meaning a maximum of two at any one time. I will also reduce my stakes for a short while until I am having a better run of the results. I am still confident that this will come through as the theory is pretty sound and will endeavour to work hard at it to make it right. Today I have a free day so I am going to re-read some of the tutorials and watch the latest videos in order to boost my understanding.
I have also decided to endeavour to find the most profitable and effective systems over the year, so that I can build up a sizeable portfolio to bring me top dollar. This won't begin until the end of September, however, as this is when I return to university and (ironically) have more spare time.
On the other hand, however, yesterday was a roaring success. Despite being down after City's very impressive performance there was a silver lining for me. The 'Best of the Rest' Market now has City available to lay at 1.44 (backed at 2.26), and the Straight forecast of United/City is at 3.7 (backed at 8.2). I will probably lay the Straight forecast reasonably soon, but leave the other market for a while as I am waiting for odds of around 1.3, and with City's next few games being straightforward ones I think this is easily achievable. I only wish I had had more capital a few weeks ago as I would have A. Lumped much more on City, and B. Backed the Anti-Arsenal markets which I outlined a few weeks ago. In addition to this good news, the United-Arsenal game was a joy to behold and I am still in disbelief. I thought it was amazing when we beat them 6-1, so 8 goals against 'The Arsenal' is unthinkable, full strength side or not. Despite being a huge United fan however, I couldn't help feeling a little sorry for Arsene Wenger in the dugout, and Fergie's post match interviews would appear to suggest he has similar sentiments. Wenger is a decent man, very clever and has an astute knowledge of the game and does certainly not deserve what is happening to him and his club right now, I hope he can recover before he is shown the door.
I would also just like to say thanks to everyone who has been reading this blog and all of my followers on Twitter. It has now been just over a month that I have been blogging/tweeting my thoughts so to have this many followers and page views so far is very pleasing. Thanks to all, please help to continue spreading the word.
That's all from me today, hope you have a good day.