Monday, 29 August 2011


I haven't had much time to trade recently and took a few days off from the ASP system. My welcome back, however, was not exactly blissful, with poor game choices resulting in a miserable Sunday (in betting terms at least). I began the day with my biggest ever loss - £38.50 - as City ran riot at White Heart Lane. Such is the nature of this system that this huge loss could have been a small profit, had I reacted slightly quicker and not been greedy, with Dzeko's goal in the 34th minute being an optimum time for a goal to be scored for this system. Had I reacted before his 41st minute goal I could have turned a nice little profit (in fact I have seen others' spreadsheets and they did turn a profit from this game), but I decided to wait until half time to let the AU price recover a bit, meaning more profit. The second goal inevitably came and any profit I had hoped for was gone.
Another factor which I think is letting me down is my game choice. With the return of the Premier League and Sky's unerring coverage of the football I have found myself picking games which I can watch whilst trading, as well as games which I think I know more about. I find myself justifying the games I have selected, which have gone outside of the filters, by saying things such as 'SURELY they can't...' and surprisingly this isn't that effective. My own 'superior' knowledge of the Premier League is highly distorted and biased, for instance yesterday I didn't believe City would score 4 or more goals because I didn't WANT them to score 4 or more goals, and until I can look at games objectively I don't believe I should use matches which go outside of the set filters.
So after such a morale-crushing decomposition of my inabilities, what now? From today I am going to go back to basics for a short while to see how it pans out. I will stick to the set filters and only trade a few games a day, meaning a maximum of two at any one time. I will also reduce my stakes for a short while until I am having a better run of the results. I am still confident that this will come through as the theory is pretty sound and will endeavour to work hard at it to make it right. Today I have a free day so I am going to re-read some of the tutorials and watch the latest videos in order to boost my understanding.

I have also decided to endeavour to find the most profitable and effective systems over the year, so that I can build up a sizeable portfolio to bring me top dollar. This won't begin until the end of September, however, as this is when I return to university and (ironically) have more spare time. 
On the other hand, however, yesterday was a roaring success. Despite being down after City's very impressive performance there was a silver lining for me. The 'Best of the Rest' Market now has City available to lay at 1.44 (backed at 2.26), and the Straight forecast of United/City is at 3.7 (backed at 8.2). I will probably lay the Straight forecast reasonably soon, but leave the other market for a while as I am waiting for odds of around 1.3, and with City's next few games being straightforward ones I think this is easily achievable. I only wish I had had more capital a few weeks ago as I would have A. Lumped much more on City, and B. Backed the Anti-Arsenal markets which I outlined a few weeks ago. In addition to this good news, the United-Arsenal game was a joy to behold and I am still in disbelief. I thought it was amazing when we beat them 6-1, so 8 goals against 'The Arsenal' is unthinkable, full strength side or not. Despite being a huge United fan however, I couldn't help feeling a little sorry for Arsene Wenger in the dugout, and Fergie's post match interviews would appear to suggest he has similar sentiments. Wenger is a decent man, very clever and has an astute knowledge of the game and does certainly not deserve what is happening to him and his club right now, I hope he can recover before he is shown the door. 
I would also just like to say thanks to everyone who has been reading this blog and all of my followers on Twitter. It has now been just over a month that I have been blogging/tweeting my thoughts so to have this many followers and page views so far is very pleasing. Thanks to all, please help to continue spreading the word.

That's all from me today, hope you have a good day.

Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Boring couple of days

So since the last time I updated I haven't had too much of a fruitful time, mainly because the games aren't as available throughout the week. In the evening there are cup competitions, but it is quite annoying that all of the games kick off at the same time, as with the starting bankroll being only £200, it means you can only do 3 or maybe 4 at a time. I much prefer the games to be spread throughout the day, but c'est la vie. I've had quite a few games winning only one or two pounds which is quite frustrating, but it is better than a loss anyway. Yesterday was about to become my best day so far as I was going to record a full bill of wins with decent wins, until I made a fatal error. In the Bury game I had inadvertently left a liability on AU of £13.70 and I really do not know why this is. I believed that I had wiped out all liabilities at half time because I even took it out of 'My Markets' on Betfair, as I thought my work was done it the game. After the game I checked it however, and found that Leicester's 94th minute goal (typical) had turned my £8.50 profit into a big loss, needless to say I was fuming. Especially as I'd worked very hard on it last night, particularly in the difficult Genk game, all for nothing. 
Luckily I am more of a silver lining type of guy and have learnt my lesson and will certainly not make the same mistake again. The next couple of days will be fruitless as I am going away again so will have no time to trade. This is rather annoying as I was really looking forward to trading the Udinese-Arsenal match. I dread to think what would happen if Arsenal go out tonight, I'm caught between my like/admiration of Wenger and my typical English mannerism - enjoying people failing. 

Good day and happy trading.

Sorry if the picture is a bit small, I just wanted to fit it on the screen this time.

Sunday, 21 August 2011

The Weekend Round-up

It has been a very interesting weekend as I have been putting the ASP system into full flow. First words which pop into my head when thinking about it are; fun, highly addictive and time-consuming. I have enjoyed using it immensely and I think that it is plain to see that it does what it says on the tin; it will assure profits. The only downside to it is that it is quite time-consuming as, despite what the creators claim, it does usually take monitoring well into the second half and I also find myself watching the odds move throughout the game, meaning I am almost constantly involved. Luckily I rather enjoy doing this so, for now at least, it is not a chore to me.
Now, on to how I did. You will notice that when describing the system I didn't use any words such as 'highly profitable', which is not to say that it isn't, just because sometimes using it can be frustrating and pointless for such little reward. For instance, at the moment I am in a game where the most I can possibly win is £0.09 which all seems rather pointless for 45 minutes worth of work. It is, however, the case that mostly games do not go like this; most games seem to average around £3.50 profit which adds up nicely over a day's worth of trading.
The weekend saw me trade 18 games (1 of which is still in-play) and I had 14 winning trades and 3 losing trades. Below I have included a very handy P+L sheet, provided by the creators of the system, which shows all of my trades and my profits and losses.

As you can see I took a very nasty hit in the Brentford game, but as you should also be able to see in my added 'notes' section, it was not entirely my fault. Before the game the market had ample liquidity so I imagined that it would be fine to trade on, despite being a lower league game. I was sadly wrong and it cost me big time, but at least I will know not to make the same mistake again. Had the market adjusted properly I should have been able to reduce the loss down to about £2 or £3. This means that I have spent most of today trying to recoup my losses from yesterday, but I am now back in the black and I hope it will stay that way. Total profit thus far is £18.34 then, with one result left to come. This is not a huge amount of money for the amount of time and effort I have put in this weekend, not just trading but researching the games too, but at the moment I'm not fussed as I am still learning the ropes. The annual forecast is £3,347 but I am aiming to get that much higher in the coming weeks. In fact, if I take out my -£22 from Brentford it shoots up to over £7000, which is more like it.
Other notes which can be taken from my sheet is the 'Country' column I have added, which is obviously stating which country the game was played in, so that I can see which country has a higher profit ratio (once I have enough data) and begin to be a bit more select with my picks.
One last thing before I go; you may have noticed that the £ sign in the 'won' column on the second trade is not in the same position as all of the others. I have absolutely no idea why this is, but it is driving me crazy as it I always have to have things like this neat and perfectly set out. I have tried all manner of things, all to no avail, so if anyone knows how I could change it please tell me! I believe it originally did it because when entering the amount, I entered a £ sign also, which is unnecessary. Needless to say I have gone back and deleted the sign which I entered, but it still didn't help. (It is also annoying me that the image is trying to escape off of this page, but it is the only way which I can show you the whole spreadsheet. In the future I may crop the 'notes' section and just include them in the write up).
Anyway, enough from me, hope you all had a green weekend. Goodnight.

Saturday, 20 August 2011

So far so good

At last I am back at home and shall now finally be able to get back to proper betting and using the ASP system. Being away hasn't stopped me from from trading completely however, and I have been able to try out the new system further. I have made about 12 trades over the last week and things seem to be going quite well. So far I have had only three losing games, all with a very manageable loss of under £2.50 each. The rest of the games have been successful ranging from profits of £0.45 to £9.02 (I had one game the other night which followed a very strange betting pattern with Any Unquoted odds being available to lay at 14 after a goalless 75 minutes so I increased my stakes and took a profit of £17, but I won't count that in the system's report). Starting from today I will look to records my trades properly, giving a starting bank and a P+L. 
Today I have successfully traded the Sunderland-Newcastle game, and just waiting on the result of the Arsenal-Liverpool game as well. Later I am considering Augsburg-Hoffenheim, Hull-Palace, Forest-Leicester and probably some evening games but I haven't looked yet. I have found the system easy to use, though in fairness I haven't faced a tough first half yet, it has mainly been goalless or very low-scoring. I have made a couple of additions for myself, which some of you might find beneficial - First one is introducing a back of the HT score being 0-0, normally at odds of 2.6-3.6. I have found this to be particularly helpful as, when picking games liable to low scorelines the 0-0 scoreline isn't too uncommon so this provides extra green which can be used to get rid of liabilities and normally leave me in profit too. At around 40 minutes I lay the 0-0 HT score (if 0-0 obviously) for around 1.08 in the hope of a late goal. 
My second addition is something I was advised on Twitter when talking to others using the system, which is to keep my 0-0 liability as low as possible. I now increase my AU liability to about £60 and try to keep the 0-0 at around half of this in order to make for a quick breakaway at HT. So far this has worked brilliantly but I will keep testing before increasing my stakes higher.
On a side note, I just finished watching the Arsenal-Liverpool game and it really does look like a downward spiral for Wenger and Arsenal at the moment. I really don't know what he is playing at by not spending any of the money at his disposal. I appreciate he has his morales and beliefs but when they aren't succeeding anymore, surely it's time to change? It could cost him his job. The £30m Udinese game is now absolutely crucial for him.
Enough from me, hope you enjoy your weekend and that it is a green one all round.

Friday, 12 August 2011

ASP System

Ignoring my blog earlier in the week, I decided to purchase the ASP e-book prior to my holiday, so that I could read it whilst away. Before reading it I was a little sceptical about the reviews I had read, as, having searched long and far for a money-making scheme that worked, I had not found one that both satisfied my position and had the potential to make me money. But these fears were soon quelled. The system is everything that I have been looking for over the past few years. I am no longer interested (and haven't been for a while now) in betting tipsters who are, in most circumstances, no better qualified to sell their guesses (for that is all they really are) than you or I.
I had always wanted a system and had always strived to create my own. I am still quite confident of coming up with one or two over my life as I am still very young and learning all the time. For now though, I can find no better system than the Assured Soccer Profits system to suit my current needs. It won't be for everyone - it won't make you a millionaire and it does take hard work, despite what the creators claim - but it can certainly make you over 10k per year if you put the effort in.
The e-book is extensive and covers most scenarios and, though it does tend to look upon things a little more optimistically than realistically at times, it should set you up and prepare you for most outcomes. If that isn't enough there are a series of very instructive videos to help you along the way, all for a small price of £89. Bar. Gain.
Despite being in love with the theory, putting it into practice is always the tough bit. I have found it extremely helpful to write out every outcome and what to do in the event of each outcome, so that I am not fazed by what might come (quite a crucial element to success in this case). If anyone wants a copy of this to reference/compare with theirs/nose at, feel free to email me, though it is only a basic document so don't get excited. So far I have only had time to trade 2 games, but both have been successful. The first game was a lovely straightforward (great for confidence) 1-0 first half (this will mean something to people using the system) and I pocketed £4.47 profit (could've been higher but I was taking it easy for my first go). The second game was slightly harder - 0-0 at half time - but I managed to get rid of my liabilities and even won 95p.
As you can see from my results, the wins aren't massive, but this means the losses aren't either (if you do it properly). Also, when doing 6 or 7 of these a day (definitely feasible) the profits will soon stack up to a few hundred per week. Stakes can be increased but I will wait until I'm more confident before doing this. The only downfall I can see in this system is greed. It will be tempting at times to hold out for a slightly higher profit, especially when profit levels are so small, but it is key that I don't. As highlighted previously in this blog, my discipline and naivety has a potential to be my downfall and it is with this in mind that I have DO NOT GAMBLE written all over my notes a billion times. In reality, however, I don't see that I will have too much of a problem with this system, as the lure of £6 rather than £4 isn't going to interest me much. The key to it is small, consistent, regular, profit. And I know this.
This has been quite a rambly post but its mainly because I'm so excited by this new prospect (I get like this when I find something new to play with). To end it promptly then, and summarise: I fully recommend this product. I'm not going to be on the Forbes Rich List 2012 but its still a worthy addition to my portfolio. And when I say portfolio, its more of a folder with this system in it. And nothing else.

Any thoughts/opinions/experiences people using the system have had are more than welcome. I'm very keen to hear how people using it for a longer time than me have found it. For now though, back to the 'holiday' and the Lady Gaga 'impressionist'...

Monday, 8 August 2011

A break from betting and a new prospect

Tomorrow I will be off on a camping holiday down in New Forest with my family and will be cut off from the betting world for about 10 days. This actually comes at a helpful time as I have just lumped a large portion of my betting capital on the long term bet of City to win the 'Best of the Rest' market, a bet which I recommended a few days ago and am still immensely confident in. If you are still wanting to bet on it, however, do be aware that the odds have dropped on Betfair from 2.26 to 2.06.
As for the new season, I am hoping I will be able to watch the opening fixtures over the weekend, especially after such a blistering Community Shield yesterday. I will not however be betting on the games, though I do have one recommendation of both teams to score in the Newcastle vs Arsenal match. If you're a fan of the Goals Galore coupon from Betfred, you might want to double this tip with both teams to score in the West Brom vs MUFC game for good odds.
Lastly, I am extremely interested in the new Assured Profits System which seems to be creating quite a buzz at the moment. The price tag is quite hefty but I have read a LOT of reviews and blogs on it and it seems to be quite effective. The general gist of the system is that it takes a lot of effort and careful planning to master, but once you have it sussed it can reward you greatly. I will be looking into and (probably) purchasing it after I return from holiday and I will keep a running diary going of how hard/profitable it is, so stay tuned for that! Also, if any has any advice/reviews of the ASP they would be greatly appreciated.
Until then, enjoy the season opening and good luck with any bets.

Saturday, 6 August 2011

Perfect day and a quick tip

A perfect day today then with 5 tips out of 5. Had a feeling it would be a good day after the two Japanese games were settled in 30 mins each. The last one took a while to come - first goal was not til the 75th minute but after that it was like waiting for a bus to come. From a personal point of view I traded out (annoyingly) after the first goal went in for a small loss. The loss was recouped in the same game however, with a successful lay of the draw after 65 mins.

I haven't had/got much time to look at tomorrows games, but one game I do like the look of is in the Japanese League - G-Osaka vs Fukuoka 10am BST over 1.5 goals. At present the odds are very low, so I will leave it 20-25 mins for it to drift before backing it.

Hope you enjoyed the start to the new season. Long may this form continue.

Friday, 5 August 2011

Ante Post for the coming season..

As I don't have a huge amount of capital myself at the moment, I'm not really able to lump on huge ante-post bets and tying up my money until May. I have however, found two bets that might be of interest to people in this market, and which I will also probably put a little on.

Firstly, a tip which was announced on Twitter by @jonnot a few weeks back - 50p E/W Lucky 15 bet on Man United, West Ham, Huddersfield and Oxford to win their leagues to return £1732.50 on William Hill. I think this bet is worth the small amount of £15 as a bit of added interest to each league.

Secondly, a tip which I have come across myself which I think gives fantastic value. This is for Man City to win the league when removing United and Chelsea from the league @ 2.26 on Betfair. I was considering City for the title outright so I certainly think they have too much class and money to not finish above the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs this year. I also expect them to make a blistering start in comparison to Arsenal, who I have already mentioned have a tough first few weeks, which might present an early lay opportunity to make sure it is risk free.

That's all I am going to flutter on, good luck with whatever you choose though.

New Season New Start

After a small break from betting whilst I attended my friend's birthday in Norwich I am back with tips and excitement ready for the new season. Hull and Blackpool hardly sent shivers down my spine, as a very dull match and some poor trades on my behalf made for a disappointing evening. The tips continued to reward however, with both 1.5s coming in last night. Tomorrow I have five tips, all which I think have a good chance of coming up trumps:

Tip one:

J-League - Kashima vs Yamagata 10.30am BST over 1.5 goals
(If there are no goals after 10 minutes, I will lay the HT score of 0-0 for a small stake also).

Tip two:

J-League - Urawa vs Kobe 11am BST over 1.5 goals
(I will probably wait around 10-15mins before placing this bet).

Tip three: 

English League One - Sheff Wed vs Rochdale 3pm BST over 1.5 goals

Tip four:

Finnish Veikkausliiga - FC Inter vs Jaro 4.30pm BST over 1.5 goals

Tip five:

English Championship - Southampton vs Leeds 5.20pm BST over 1.5 goals

Good luck all, hope you enjoy the new season.

Thursday, 4 August 2011

A black day

Yesterday the 86p fund took a huge hit as I went on tilt and lost £200. Despite my tips on here being successful, I decided to try my luck in the rangers game. I had £30 on it to be 0-0 at half time, and was just getting ready to trade before rangers scored. Angry that this might prove to be a losing day, I lumped 200 on an extra bet from Iceland which proved unsuccessful. As my profile says, I am a young bettor and although I like to think I'm a pro, I still lack a lot of valuable experience. With each mistake however, I am slowly learning all the pitfalls and it is making me far more knowledgable for the long run. I had been planning to deposit as the season began but for now I think I will stick to low stakes, just using the money left from the 86p, which is currently at £72. I have tilted in the past but have got away with it by winning the bets. This is the first time that I have lost on tilt and hoping it will be the last now. Greed can't control your betting, or you'll end up broke.

Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Tips for August 4th

Another perfect night then with both selections coming in. The Lillestrom game finished 3-2 so the bet was never in doubt. The Benfica game posed more of a scare with a half time scoreline of 1-1. The second half was goalless though, despite a red card, so I was able to trade out at around 1.7 (layed at 1.98) to make a tidy little profit. Even the bet which Betfair didn't offer came in which made it doubly annoying there was no market for it. Here are my bets for tomorrow:

Tip One:

Norwegian Division 1 - Honefoss vs Sandefjord 8pm BST over 1.5 goals

Tip Two:

Brazilian Campeonato - Sao Paulo vs Bahia (Friday 5th) 1am BST over 1.5 goals

I did also want to bet on the Start vs Molde game going over 1.5 goals but, again, Betfair doesn't have an in play market for this game. Very odd and annoying as they have one for matches in the league below. Strange.

Good luck anyway

Tips 3rd August

Last night was another perfect night as Crawley went over 1.5 goals by some way and Copenhagen didn't manage to score until late in the first half, allowing for a decent trade out.
Today I have two selections:

Tip One - Lillestrom vs Tromso 5pm BST to be over 1.5 goals @ 1.25

Tip Three - Trabzonspor vs Benfica 7.45pm BST to be under 2.5 goals @ 1.93
If there is a low scoring first half it is likely that I will trade out at half time.

I also wanted to lay the Haugesund match at 5pm to be 0-0 at half time but Betfair have no market on it today unfortunately, so I won't be betting on it.

Good luck all.

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Little tip for August 2nd

I'm writing this now because I'm not sure I'll have much time tomorrow. Today ended up very good indeed following yesterday's disappointment. Earlier I said that my over 1.5 bet had already come in, but a small investment on GAIS to win as well also came in, taking my 86p fund to £243.49, after a dip to £174.78 the previous day.

Tomorrow (2nd August) I will be tipping in a friendly match which is unusual for me. Because of this I will not be placing a large stake on this and would advise anyone to keep their stakes low should they follow this tip. The tip is Crawley vs QPR to go over 1.5 goals at around 1.25.

I will also consider laying Copenhagen to win in Ireland in the Champions League Qualifying round, after a less than impressive 1-0 win last week in Denmark. Furthermore, Copenhagen had a game at the weekend whereas Shamrock had a weekend off. I expect that Copenhagen will win in the end but it will be hard for them, so will consider laying them to trade out later.

Goodnight and good luck all.

Monday, 1 August 2011

Football's coming home...

So as another successful day draws to a close I thought I would take some time to do another post. GAIS vs Halmstads is still in-play but the bet was settled after 15 minutes so a successful one there. I have a small stake on GAIS to win (currently 1-1) against a very poor Halmstads team, so hopefully that will round off a good day.
Yesterday was not so good unfortunately and I lost about £35 of the 86p fund, luckily not too much. I did say that I wasn't as confident about the two bets and that fear was soon realised. In the first bet of the day featuring Helsingborgs vs IFK Goteburg I recommended a lay of 0-0 as a half time score after about 15 minutes of play. I noted that I was not as confident about the over 1.5 so didn't bother taking that option. As it went, the game finished 2-1 after all second half goals, so rather disastrous. The 0-0 HT score lay is something new that I am testing and have only done it twice. After a near miss on Saturday from Molde and a failed Sunday, it is rather easy to feel downbeat about this system. I will, however, continue to persevere as I think it will be profitable in the long run. One defeat is a stupid thing to be pessimistic about.
In the other tip I gave, I was unimpressed with the starting price of over 1.5 goals so suggested waiting for it to drift before backing. Two early goals soon ruled that out meaning that tip was a NO BET. Ironically the two games I had for Finland were successful, but if I can't bet them on Betfair it is pointless as bookies just don't give the value. Today I noticed to my annoyance that there was a full market for the Finnish game playing, I have no idea why it picks specific games to have a full selection of bets on. If anyone can help me out with that one it would be appreciated.

This weekend sees the return of the football which everyone has been waiting for: the 'real' football (sorry to any non-western European readers). I personally can't wait to get my teeth stuck in to a fresh new season with so many more options for betting. I know that I have only been tipping one or two a day with a very low ROI since I started, but once Saturday kicks off I will have a much greater range (hopefully). Already got one interesting one lined up for Friday - Hull vs Blackpool. I imagine there to be goals there to cut the ribbon of the Championship season 11/12. Blackpool were fantastic to bet on last year, and whilst Hull weren't at all, especially at home, they have had a brilliant pre-season and have made some good signings so I'm looking forward to that one (especially as I'm at uni in Hull too).

I'm pretty busy this week so hopefully you will forgive me for irregular posts. I don't think I fancy anything tomorrow but I will have a closer look at the European games for midweek. Good luck with anything you try though. Bring on the weekend.

No time to waste..

I haven't got much time today, so I will only be betting on one game. Yesterday wasn't a good day, I only managed one bet and it was a loss, proper analysis will follow when I get some time. Today I will be recommending:

Swedish Allsvenskan - GAIS vs Halmstads over 1.5 goals 

Good luck today.