The Premier League winners market 2013/14

As I write the title I am a little shock to see I am writing '13/14', where does time go?! I still think back to the seasons of 00/01/02 as being yesteryear but it really isn't anymore. Anyway, enough inane tittle and on to the most important topic of the season: who will win the Premier League?

The summer seems to have been a manager's summer, and unusually each team has a new boss going into the new season. This creates something of a problem for bettors as it means we are entering something of an unknown. That being said however, I do think that a more than necessary emphasis has been placed upon the three incoming managers and it is going to be more down to the players on this occasion. Of course there is also the added difficulty of the season beginning before the transfer window slams shut and there are still some big names to decide on their futures. Regardless, here is what I think at this moment in time:

Manchester City have gone about their summer dealings uncharacteristically quietly and sensibly. It appears to be a Pellegrini-effect as he has chosen to keep below radar in his first months in charge. Problem characters such as Tevez and Balotelli have been discarded and the squad has silently and carefully rebuilt following their disappointment last season. This does not mean they haven't spent a great deal of money however - adding the likes of Navas, Negredo, Fernandinho and others for hefty fees. I imagine it will be a completely different looking City and one which operates a lot more functionally and organised. Last season they had the best defence in the league and barring the injury to Nastasic there is no reason they cannot continue that into this year. Odds on City to record the most clean sheets are not amazingly appealing at evens with Paddypower, but possibly worth a consideration when you look at the frailties in United and Chelsea's defences. The focus over the summer has been bolstering the attack and in Alvaro Negredo they have a proven goalscorer. Whether he will start ahead of Aguero often enough is difficult to call, but 28/1 with Sportingbet for Negredo to be top scorer is certainly tempting, especially considering he bagged 31 in 42 last year with Sevilla. Going into the opening match City are favourites for the title at 3.2 on Betfair, and overall that looks like a sensible price-up. They have the experience of winning a title in recent years and will be a lot more disciplined and focused this season.

The Special One is back at Chelsea and is making a particular noise with the Wayne Rooney saga. It strikes me that Chelsea have been very clever in their dealings with Rooney and have royally stitched United up. Undoubtedly Mourinho wants the player and if he gets him it will be an almighty blow to both Moyes and United, and Chelsea's title hopes would likely increase somewhat, but even if he does not succeed Rooney has created a situation where the United fans are now against him and he is 'stuck' in a team he does not want to play in. The irony of it all that he asked for greater players to be signed at the club, only to fall behind Van Persie in the pecking order and get the hump. Moving on from Rooney however, as we cannot really factor in things we do not know the outcome of yet, and Chelsea appear to be slightly overpriced in my view due to the Mourinho effect. They have signed decent players in Schurrle and Van Ginkel, and will certainly benefit from the return of Lukaku, but apart from that they appear to have a similar squad to last year but with some of the spine of the team a year older. They finished 14 points off United last season and that number probably would have been larger had United not had the title done weeks before the end (therefore playing with less interest vs Chelsea at Old Trafford in the 0-1 defeat), leading me to believe there is not a great deal of value in their odds of 3.35 at the moment. Of slightly more interest is the 24/1 available on Lukaku to be top scorer with various bookies, along with Mata to record top assists at 11/1 with Boylesports.

Manchester United are certainly an enigma this season following the retirement of their leader over the last double decade and more. They trounced the league last year but it will certainly not be quite so easy this year, and they begin the season perhaps somewhat unfairly as third favourites at 3.9. They have the same team as last year, with the possible exception of Rooney if he does leave the club, but presumably the assumption is that the lack of imported talent has meant that the other two have caught up somewhat and even overtaken the champions. While I agree that United should have already strengthened their squad as there are particular obvious areas of weakness, I cannot see that Chelsea have made enough of a step up to overtake United as second favourites. Should Rooney leave for Chelsea however, then that would change matters completely, and perhaps the market is as it is because it has already anticipated this move. I think it is unlikely Moyes will end the transfer season without adding a name to his squad, though it might not be the big-name player he so craves, meaning the purchase is likely to be Everton-sourced. The lack of a new playmaker and the possible departure of Rooney could mean an increased role for the talented Kagawa, who showed great promise last season despite spending most of his time on the bench. As an outside shot, he can be got at 21/1 to record the most assists this season with Paddypower. I think United are going to be very prone to market over-reactions this year given the departure of Ferguson and the unknown which surrounds Moyes. A bad run could see them drift out massively so I would advise waiting to see how they get on before backing them, therefore possibly grabbing much longer odds. The 'top 3' market should also be closely observed as United are already at 1.47 and could push out even further making for a tasty trade. It is unlikely that an unchanged Arsenal side (currently 4th favs for top 3) is going to outperform an unchanged United team in my opinion, but who knows.

One thing I am sure of; regardless of where Luis Suarez or Gareth Bale ends up these three teams will be the only ones seriously challenging for the Premier League title. Spurs and Arsenal have good squads but miles away from the title winning squads they need. As for which of the three will take the title, I do not know! Last season I made the mistake of laying United when they were out in front and I took one of my biggest losses of the season on them when they triumphed with ease. In truth, I hated laying United as a United fan, as I found myself caught in two minds and wasn't able to just bask in the glory I should have been enjoying, so maybe this year I will consider if it is really worth it.

Over the last two seasons a successful market has been the straight forecast, although this year the odds are a lot more appealing, though of course a lot more difficult to predict! For the best value I would currently look to Man City 1st/ United 2nd at 8.4 as it will probably trade lower throughout the season, especially if United beat Chelsea early on at Old Trafford.

This season will chop and change, there will be plenty of trading opportunities in this market, it will just be all about picking the right moments. I can't wait.

Back in business

Well hello bloggers, it's been a long while. I have had a long sabbatical from blogging and betting but I am back now and raring to go for the new season. As regular followers will know, I graduated from university this summer so the last few months have been a desperate attempt to land myself a job and not end up another unemployed statistic. I have managed to get a paid 6-month internship full time in London in PR and marketing, but it will require a lot of commuting from where I live meaning blog posts will decrease somewhat as I have less time, but please bear with me, I'm not ready to quit blogging just yet!

At the moment I haven't had a chance to review the season and teams in detail yet, but I will do that soon. At the moment the thing which jumps out at me is the unpredictable nature of the Premier League winners market this year, I really can't call it and everyone is saying different things. From a betting perspective this is great; last year I was caught out as United ran away with the title and didn't look back, but you can say for sure that the same thing will not happen this year and there will be loads of opportunities to back and lay. In addition to this, we have three closely matched teams all in the 3s, providing a great dutching opportunity. Last year I pointed out you could get a 14% return on 10-month investment if you dutched the top three to win the league, and this year you can get between 15-17% on the same three teams which is extremely attractive. Of course there is risk involved, but I really cannot see Arsenal or anyone else creating a season-long challenge to the top 3 as they simply do not have the calibre. The one thing about the Premier League title is you can be sure that the best team will win it, there are rarely shocks as it takes so long to complete, meaning this investment looks extremely appealing to me. Give it a ponder. 

This was just a short post to let you know I haven't quit/died, and I will be back again next week to review the markets properly. I welcome anyone else's analysis by the way, so feel free to let me know your thoughts. Have a good weekend.

Ronnie Rolls On

Well I admitted that I wasn't sure if Ronnie O'Sullivan would be able to recreate his magic from the past and to be quite honest I was spot on. He wasn't his old self throughout the tournament: He was a million times more incredible. Even his biggest fans surely could not have expected such a ridiculously imperious return to the game as he swept aside everyone and made light work of the world's biggest snooker tournament. Okay, he didn't have the toughest run to the title and a glamour tie with Judd Trump was as close as he came to leaving the tournament, and we all know how much of a pain in the ass he can be at times; for someone who claims he doesn't like attention he sure is good at kicking up a storm, but ultimately it was a phenomenal performance from a player who hasn't been in the game for a whole year. While I am really hoping he stops moping around and plays on the circuit next year, I am still unsure as to whether the snooker world needs him or not. While it is brilliant to see him back and he certainly brings in the crowds, it is a bit like Man United bringing Paul Scholes back in the middle of the season last year. It is great to see an old genius back playing and he has shown he is more than capable of competing at the highest standard, but the problem is it doesn't really allow for new stars to come through. This season has seen the trio of Trump, Selby and Roberston rise to the top of the rankings in much the same way the 'big four' have in tennis. The three have been interchanging in the rankings throughout the whole year and each of them has their own style of snooker flair, providing great entertainment throughout in my opinion. If I was Barry Hearn, I would have marketed the rivalry between these three as much as I possibly could as they look to be the best talents for the future and could go on to dominate between them. Domination is definitely something the game needs but I am still undecided as to whether Ronnie being the dominator at this late and unpredictable stage in his career is good for the sport. Maybe that debate is for another day though.

Now the snooker is over it is back to football for me, though that is nearly over too and I will soon find myself lost for a whole summer (though perhaps this is good as it will be a summer of mad job hunting). The form of the three teams going for the champions league has been exceptional over the last few weeks and I must admit I thought at least one of them would falter. Chelsea in particular have impressed me the way they have balanced their European efforts and their league position simultaneously, though in fairness I couldn't think of many better managers to do this, I wonder how many Chelsea fans will be annoyed at Rafa's appointment by the end of the season. I am beginning to wonder about the threat Chelsea will pose next season in the title race as they have a big squad with some fantastic young players, while they have the appropriate mix of experienced players too, but I will wait until after the transfer/manager window before making any decisions. If you are looking at this though, they are currently 4.4 to win the league next season on Betfair, which is considerably shorter than the 6.4 they started at this season. They still have a massive match tomorrow against Spurs and anyone willing to stick their neck out on a Spurs win could take a big profit as a huge flip in the markets would be probably should Spurs win. As it is though, the markets have Chelsea firmly in the top 4 spot at 1.09 and their top 3 price is now at 1.28 following their victory at Old Trafford. Spurs remain outsiders for the top 4 at 2.86 while Arsenal are at 1.36. 

Enjoy the football this week. Savour it. It won't last for much longer!

Snooker and Football

I'm not sure if you are going to be able to guess what this post will be about under the cryptic title I have chosen, but I'm sure you can have a little guess. The snooker World Championship has been running for a week now and it has not disappointed so far with huge amounts of quality and excitement on the baize. With round 2 currently in progress, the biggest shock so far is Neil Robertson's first round exit to Robert Milkins, after one particular blogger astutely tipped Robertson as a good back-to-lay option... Moving on and there were other first round casualties for what I like to call the 'mid-runners' (ie not those in the group of favourites in the betting, but not big outsiders either) Higgins, Allen and Maguire (who I did actually say was unreliable, so maybe that is 1-1). Their defeat along with Robertson's has altered the market somewhat, with Ding Junhui in to 7.4 from 14s and Shaun Murphy in to 15s from 22 (although Shaun is through to the quarter finals already). The favourites still remain close with Trump at 4.5, O'Sullivan (who dispelled any doubters with his first round victory over Marcus Campbell) in to 4.8, and Selby is at 5.6. 

In addition to the front-runners there have been a few surprise performances not least from 21-year old Michael White, who has already knocked out Mark Williams and Dechawat Poomjaeng and will go on to face Milkins or Ricky Walden in the quarters. He is currently at 22 to win the tournament and although I don't advise backing the in-form man, especially one so inexperienced, if he can carry his momentum into his next match there is no reason to suggest he could not make the semis. Poomjaeng, who was unfortunately knocked out yesterday, has been the source of much entertainment in his brief spell at The Crucible and I'm sure many will be sad to see him out. I think Maguire's quote that he doesn't think Poomjaeng 'is the full shilling' pretty much sums up his antics. 

Over in football land United sowed up the title in brilliant fashion and we have entered the stage of the season where the outright markets begin to settle or partly settle their bets. I'll be honest and admit this does confuse me slightly as it skews the profit and loss margins on each market as each team gets knocked out of the running. But anyway, the biggest market still left in contention definitely seems to be the race for the top 4, or even top 3, while the final relegation spot also seems unsettled. I feel each weekend between now and the end will be crucial for both of these battles and it is difficult to see who has the easiest run in for the top 4 race. Arsenal face United at home this weekend and although Ferguson has rightly vowed to honour the top 4 race, I don't see any reason why Arsenal cannot take at least a point from the champions-elect. If they can avoid defeat on this occasion they would certainly appear to hold a small advantage over the other two, who still need to play each other on May 8th. I am sticking with my belief that Chelsea will be the ones to miss out, while Arsenal will take 3rd place. This is not the market belief however, as Chelsea are favourites for the top four at 1.33 and top 3 at 2.04. We shall see. 

Down at the bottom it is really difficult to call and I won't be getting involved there. On the surface it seems that Wigan have the tougher run in but I get the impression people are reluctant to oppose them due to their heroics in recent seasons. I can't help but feel though that this may be one season too far for the club, especially as they have the FA Cup final to think about as well, although I do hope I am wrong. Enjoy your weekends.

The Betfair Snooker World Championship 2013

Regular readers of this blog will know that I am impartial to a bit of snooker from time to time and over the last year or two it has become a kind of second sport for me. Unfortunately this tends to be strictly from an enjoyment perspective and not so much from a betting perspective, partly because snooker doesn't have the liquidity required to trade properly and partly because the sport is so unpredictable. The World Championship starts on Saturday though and it is sponsored by Betfair after all, so it should show an improvement liquidity-wise.

The draw for the competition was made yesterday and it made for a slight rearrangement on the outright winner market, as each of the favourites' route to the final was determined. As far as the betting goes the outright market is the most interesting as usual but it is typically difficult to pick yourself a winner, with the favourite starting at a huge 7.2. The big news so far has been the return of defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan having played his last competitive match of snooker in the final of last year's World Championship. He heads the betting at 7.2 but I really cannot see myself backing him, especially as favourite. Everyone knows what Ronnie is like and how he plays, no one can predict anything he will do though and he could be sensational or awful. I wouldn't want to back anyone who had not played the game for a year, let alone someone who is renowned for being a bit of a basket-case. Don't get me wrong, I fully hope we see the old Ronnie back to his glory days to give a strong defence of his title, but I won't be backing him to do so.

Neil Robertson, Judd Trump and Mark Selby make up the rest of what Betfair is calling 'The Big Four', and you can currently get 1.89 on any of them to lift the trophy. Throughout history the winner has tended to be one of the big players in the game at the time, as indeed should be the case, and it isn't since 2005 when a young Shaun Murphy won the title that an underdog has come through to win. You could argue that last year was a shock with O'Sullivan winning despite his poor ranking and age (oldest winner since Ray Reardon in 1978), but Ronnie has been somewhat of an anomaly all throughout his career so it can possibly be excused (and he was actually still one of the favourites). Of the other three of the 'Big 4', the most appealing to me is Robertson at 7.4 who is the only former World Champion of the three. He certainly looks good for a back-to-lay as he has been the most consistent throughout this season (despite actually going all the way only once) with 1 win, 3 finals, 3 semi-finals and quarter. He is just coming off the back of his impressive China Open win and I think he could be ready to take it to the next level. Alternatively, Mark Selby at 7.8 has been world number one for intermittent parts of the season and, although he has been less consistent with only one final, he also won the UK Championship and the Masters and is looking to complete the Triple Crown. Judd Trump at 8.4 is my least favourite of the four by far and tends to have his price shortened somewhat due to his playing style. This season he won the International Championship and finished runner-up at the Shanghai Masters, but let's himself down far too often and has failed to get past the second round of ranking events on 5 occasions this season. Two years ago he announced himself to the world by finishing runner-up in this tournament, but I think it may still be a tad too soon for him to go one step further.

As for 'The Field', Higgins and Ding (14s), Allen (16s), Maguire (19.5) and Murphy (22) make up the rest of the main pack with a fair chance of doing well this time round. Higgins and Murphy are the only ones with World titles to their name, and it is the latter who I feel has once again been severely underrated by the markets. He remains number 4 in the world (ranked 5 in this tournament because O'Sullivan is first seed) and has been pretty consistent all the way through the season, with one final, four semi finals and two quarters. It may just be past him to win the tournament, but I will be backing him to make the quarter finals at least. Mark Allen is another who has performed well this season and is up to 6 in the rankings, though he is another who frequently struggles to make it past the second round (on 6 occasions). He also has a very difficult draw with the way it is structured, so I would not really advise backing him. Stephen Maguire is at 19.5 and this must be for his world ranking (5) alone because he has not really performed well this season. He won the Welsh Open and made the semis in China, but on eight occasions did not progress past the 2nd round. His draw is not the harshest however and he could progress until he meets Robertson in the quarters, but I wouldn't back him to get that far based on his recent form.

Overall the tournament is extremely difficult to call either way, much like any other world sporting tournament, as the prestige of the Crucible mixed with the length of the matches (1st round is best of 19 frames, progressing to the final which is best of 35) means anything can happen. I'm not sure I will be having any big punts on it, but maybe a couple of small interest bets. From a in-play trading perspective, I would be looking to back Mark Selby if he went behind early on in a match and lay Judd Trump/Neil Robertson if they took a big early lead. Robertson and Trump's playing style relies upon their long potting being perfect which is difficult to maintain for a whole 19+ frames and they are known to frequently take the foot off the gas when they're ahead.

Otherwise though, sit back and enjoy the tournament! Much like golf or test cricket, it is a sport which is relaxing to watch as well and can be left on in the background (particularly when you have revision to do...), but can also be exciting at times and unmissable! I only wish I didn't have exams soon so I could go to Sheffield and watch it. Good luck.

A bookmaker review

I was reading The Portfolio Investor's blog the other day and he was talking about a few smaller bookmakers and the necessity to treat them with caution. Over the last year or so due to personal research and a lot of matched betting I have come to use and experience a number of bookmakers, both mainstream and non-mainstream, so I thought I would do a small review based on my experiences for people perhaps looking to open new accounts. I accept this is a subjective post and people may disagree with some of the things I say, but I reiterate this is just a review based on my personal experiences.

Firstly there is what I consider to be the mainstream bookies. These are the ones who I see as the market leaders in the UK, through both their street and/or online presence. Some might disagree but personally I see these as being: William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet365, Coral, PaddyPower and Betfred. Bet365 has no high street betting shops to my knowledge, while PaddyPower has a few scattered mainly in the North of England and in Ireland, but the majority of their work is based around online betting. The other four neatly juggle online and street bookmaking to provide a good all-round service. I have had quite a lot of experience with each of these bookmakers, mainly online, and they typically offer the same sound service across the board. My personal favourite is Bet365 as they have exceptional customer service and frequently offer the biggest offers and free bets. They also have an extremely attractive £200 sign up bonus, as well as a £50 mobile bonus. The others all have little features which make them individual and worth having an account with, for example PaddyPower and Coral have a number of novelty bets and enhanced odds offers, while William Hill has the 'Priority Prices' which is their version of enhanced odds. Overall I have very little bad things to say about these bookmakers, although others may have issues with their staking restrictions. I do not really stake big enough bets with bookmakers for this to affect me however.

Secondly we have what I consider to be the second tier bookmakers. These are generally the ones we hear a decent amount about through their marketing campaigns or advertising at sporting events, but do not rank as highly as those above, for various reasons. I consider these to be: Sporting Bet, Bet Victor, Stan James, Blue Square, Boylesports, Sky Bet. These bookies I would not regularly place bets with as they offer nothing too dissimilar from those above, but it is still worth having an account with each of them as they will frequently offer free bets for big sporting events. Sky Bet offer a unique sign up bonus which offers the user a weekly free bet if they stake a certain amount each week, while Bet Victor is notable for its range of bets offered, particularly the popular Man of the Match markets. Unfortunately I have had bad experiences with Sporting Bet and I know I am not alone with this. They appear to have a reputation for finding ways to not pay out free bets and offers, and I have also known them to withdraw offers mid-flow (as they are entitled to do, of course, but it does not do much for their PR). I have also been on the receiving end of poor customer service (accused of 'abusing' their system after placing a few bets) and as a result I tend not to bet with them as much as I can. I do not have any bad things to say about the others listed, only that I know some people have complained that Stan James are very quick to shut down people who win large amounts, so they are not very good from an arbing perspective.

Lastly is the 'best of the rest', which basically means all of the other bookmakers I have accounts with which don't qualify for the above categories. There are loads more in the world with differing quality but I cannot comment on these as I haven't had any dealings with them. I will give a brief summary of those I have used before:

Bwin: A decent online service which I have encountered no problems with. Not exceptionally attractive odds however.

118Bet: One of my favourites from this category. A large £50 sign up offer and a very simple interface.

888Sport: Main feature appears to be poker and casino but still offers a decent sportsbook.

SetantaBet: Rather poor odds and only £10 sign up offer.

TitanBet: Fairly easy to use, good customer support.

Bet770: One of my least favourites. A good £70 sign-up offer but poor odds and you need to send copies of drivers licence and bank cards before withdrawing. Also have a tendency to ring your house even if you don't disclose your home number.

UniBet: Another of my favourites. Everything is plain and simple, excellent customer service and decent odds.

ApolloBet: Same company as Setanta I believe, so they use the same poor odds. Smooth customer service however.

SeanieMac: Used to be same company as Apollo/Setanta but have recently been taken over by Boylesports I believe. Currently have an inactive sportsbook and I have £40 irretrievable in the account, though apparently they will be up and running soon.

10Bet: Huge sign up offer of up to £200, but equally huge rollover requirements come with it. Apart from that though it is a decent sportsbook.

Bet-At-Home: Diabolical odds and poor interface.

BetInternet: Fairly sound website, simple to use.

32Red: Not primarily a sportsbook and it shows. Confusing 'Wallet' system in your account and site is centred around the casino.

That is just about it from my own records. There are a couple of extras from the exchanges: Betfair and Betdaq but I don't really see the point in them. They seem easy to use but it seems slightly stupid to me that they, particularly Betfair, have a separate sportsbook when they are primarily an exchange. To their target market, the people who know Betfair as a 'confusing exchange', becoming a sportsbook AS WELL is not going to solve matters massively I do not think, rather it will confuse the masses. Lastly, Pinnacle is an online bookmaker which I think many of you will argue should be in the top bracket, particularly arbers, due to its highly competitive odds. I have not had a great deal of experience with it but it does strike me as being for the more serious bettor, rather than for punters, so I will leave it up to you as to where you place this one.

No doubt everyone has had varied experiences with each bookie and I would be interested to know these, so please let me know in the comments. I'd just like to mention a new company which I have also  recently been looking into: 'Bet Butler'. This seems like quite a good idea overall and useful to the casual punter. For serious bettors I can't see any reason why you would pay 3% on your winnings bets if you have multiple betting accounts anyway, that is just lazy! But for the casual punter, it will probably win you more than you lose in the long run.

Cheltenham Bonus Bagging

The weekend was a big one for the relegation scrap, and it is so tight down there that it looks as though it will be like this for the remaining 9 game weeks. Wins for Villa and QPR saw a shift in relegation odds, while the markets now appear to have written Reading off completely, despite their burst of form at the start of 2013. Reading are now 1.13 to go down, while Villa have climbed to 2.3. QPR's win did little in terms of jumping out of the relegation zone, as Villa's win ensured they are still four points adrift, and this was perhaps noticed by the markets which readjusted to make QPR 1.57 for the drop, despite initially jumping to 1.7+ immediately after their victory. Their victory over Sunderland was of course crucial however, and if they can carry this form into the upcoming relegation 6-pointers then they should stand a good chance. Elsewhere in the table, Spurs lost at Anfield and drifted to 1.44 for a top 4 spot, despite the four teams around them not playing. Liverpool, every markets friend, are now 1.49 to finish in the top 6, despite being level on points with Everton, who have a game in hand.

The big news this week will no doubt come from Cheltenham, and the bookies are doing their best to come out on top with the best offers. This is a good time to remind everyone about the extremely successful and profitable matched betting service 'Bonus Bagging', available for just £27. I should note I don't tend to do sales pitches, and I am not in anyway involved with this service other than on a consumer level, but it is the only service which has consistently earned me money and everyone really should be a member. My email account has been going crazy this week as Mike, 'Mr BonusBagging', has been carefully sorting through all the free bets and offers available to ensure Cheltenham is a profitable festival. Many of the offers available take work well over my mathematical knowledge to become profitable, but Mike produces video and written guides as well as spreadsheets and calculators to make each one as easy as possible. Whether you use these profits to fund your Cheltenham bank or just for some extra cash, it is really a no brainer.

Enjoy the festival.

The world goes on

Last night in Manchester was predictably dramatic, albeit slightly tarnished as a spectacle. There are plenty of unbalanced opinions doing the rounds at the moment, so I won't add mine. It is a bad year for English football however, with potentially no teams in the quarter finals (unless Arsenal can produce something incredible) since 1996, and that is a shame considering we have some very good sides this year, as well as the holders. The Betfair market Champions League winner market is currently suspended, but the bookies have Madrid as favourites at around 3.5, and I'm sure Munich's price of 4.2 won't last a great deal longer. It will depend on the draw, and whether Barca can pull their tie back.

Back to the Premier League and QPR continue to be unpredictable in their campaign for safety. They have been matched as low as 1.15 and as high as 7.8 throughout the season, but their victory away at Southampton has put them four points adrift of safety, and they are back out to 1.37 for the drop. This week they have a winnable game at home to Sunderland, while Villa and Reading play each other and Wigan play in the Cup. I would like to say that if they lose this weekend and there is a victor in the Villa-Reading match then it really is over for QPR, but there is just no telling. There are 10 games to go and this is more than enough in a relegation battle where 2 wins on the bounce take you out of trouble.

The race for the top 10 is hotting up nicely as well. Swansea and West Brom, you would think, have 8th and 9th sown up, which leaves 10th spot for feasibly any team down as far as Southampton. Six points separate 16th and 10th and a little run for any of these teams could secure a top 10 spot. Stoke are the favourites to take this place at 2.84, while the current 10th placed team Fulham are second favourites at 3.4. At the moment goal difference is separating Fulham, Stoke and West Ham, and a race as close as this could come down to such fine margins on the last day. I wouldn't like to call this one, so I will stick with my pre-season pick of Fulham.

Further up the table and if the markets are anything to go by, then the race for the top 4 is all but done. Spurs' huge victory over Arsenal at the weekend saw them shorten to 1.33, their lowest price of the season, while Arsenal are out to 3.25. Chelsea are at 1.26, despite sitting in 4th place currently. Like most things however, I still feel this has a long way to go and the 5 point gap between Arsenal and Chelsea is not insurmountable. Tottenham have the toughest fixture list out of the three, playing Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea and Man City in the next month or so, along with a 2-legged tie against Inter Milan. It is advantage Spurs at the moment but a lay at 1.33 would not be the worst decision in the world, the main difficulty would be how well Arsenal could put the pressure on. If, like me, Arsenal do not fill you with hope but you still think Spurs will drop some points, then backing Chelsea to finish top 3 at 1.96 could be a more appealing option.

At the top United appear to be running away with things. 1.05 for the title and with a 12 point lead it is hard to disagree with that price. I would not go as far to say it is over, but it is looking good for Fergi and co, and I decided to take a big loss on my lay of United to win, rather than let it run. If United lose to Chelsea on Sunday then we might see a small amount of panic creep in, but it is difficult to see them losing such a lead, regardless of what happened last year. Man City are at 21 to win the title incidentally.

We are into the final stretch of games once more, yet it only seems like yesterday I was preparing some preseason trades. How time flies. Cheltenham starts next week and I will be looking to take advantage of a few bookie offers, while also enjoying the festival. Keep your eyes peeled for free bets because there are normally a fair few about, with a potential to win decent amounts. Good luck with your bets and enjoy.

Ally Pally

My week has been dominated by the snooker as I had predicted, and it has been a firecracker so far. Comebacks from the big name players such as Robertson, Trump and Selby was the theme from the last 16,   and the top 5 in the world all made it to the quarter finals to make it a thrilling tournament in store. I had a little interest on the winners market by dutching the four favourites, so I was pleased to see them all come through (just about). I've layed off a bit of my liability now but the odds are all still fairly long because no big name has left the tournament yet. I also had a £5 bet on Murphy to win on the fixed odds market (to qualify for a free bet elsewhere) which I have partially layed off, hence the large liability on him:

Over in the football world, the biggest move of the week has been QPR's relegation odds. They did well to secure a point against Spurs, although I watched the match and must say they were abysmal on the attack, but their transfer activity, or at least the rumours surrounding them, have seen their odds jump from 1.55 to 1.65 for relegation without touching a ball. I topped up at 1.57 when I heard about Remy, and now M'Vila is rumoured although apparently he isn't too keen. 'Arry the wheeler dealer trying to work his magic once more. At the other end of the table, United and City got through their weekend unscathed, proving once again that this season is going to be all about them. United remain at 1.38 for the title, and I have now decided to get involved in laying United. They have a tough month or two to come, despite their big lead, as they will be focused on their huge matches with Real Madrid in February. 

Apart from that though I'm off to Ally Pally myself tomorrow, hopefully for a top day of snooker. Have a good day people, I leave you with a blatant lie from Old 'Arry: 

The Betfair Masters 2013

The Masters starts this week and regular users of this blog will know that I enjoy a good snooker tournament from time to time. This one I am particularly excited about though, as I have tickets to one of the quarter finals which will be my first time going to watch any form of snooker. Some may say they couldn't think of anything worse, but what do they know?

In terms of betting, the favourite going into Friday is snooker's new darling Judd Trump at 5.3 (9/2) with Betfair. It is an interesting price up for Trump, who crashed out in the first round at the last ranking event (UK Championships) to world number 50 Mark Joyce, although he did win the International Championship back in November. Since Ronnie O'Sullivan's recent sabbatical, Trump appears to have taken the mantle of snooker's exciting bad boy, or 'full time playboy' as his Twitter bio used to read. A key feature of the O'Sullivan reign was unpredictability on the table, yet he was frequently a lowed priced favourite for each tournament, mainly because of his name. This was the case even as he began to slip down the rankings in recent seasons, and I can't help but feel this is already beginning to happen to Trump. He is, of course, the world number 2, but at these prices I do not think I would like to back him, especially with his unpredictability as a relative rookie to the game. 

The second favourite some way behind him is world number 1 and UK Championship 2012 winner Mark Selby at 7.8 (7/1). This seems a somewhat reserved price for the world leader and this is presumably down to his lackluster win at the UK Championship. He managed to dig deep and claw back wins rather than sweep away all in his path with slick snooker, but this should still not be underestimated as a good ranking title. Having been out with a neck injury before this it is certainly an admirable achievement to recover and reclaim his number 1 spot, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a big improvement in his play at The Masters. The 7.8 therefore looks like quite a decent price.

Due to the talent which has come through in recent years, snooker has become a bit like Formula 1 in that it is difficult for one player to dominate all the events. So far this season there has been 5 world ranking events, and 5 different winners (Ricky Walden, Barry Hawkins, John Higgins, Judd Trump and Mark Selby). Additionally, no one has won the 'triple crown' (The UK Championship, the Masters, and the World Championship) since 2002/3. Despite the fact that The Masters is not a ranking event, it is still seen as extremely prestigious in the Snooker circuit, and I am sure the £175,000 winners prize helps too. This is shown by the recent winners of the tournament, as Ding Junhui is the only to have won it since 2004 other than O'Sullivan/Selby/Robertson/Higgins.

This leaves the tournament rather open with any of the 'big players' looking to take the title, and the betting markets mark up Robertson and Higgins (both 8.4 or 15/2) as completing the top 4 favourites. There appears little to choose between these 4, and dutching them would give you odds of 1.8 (4/5), with the option of trading your position on Betfair throughout the tournament. If you fancied adding in world number 4 and UK Championship runner up Shaun Murphy at 12 for a less ambitious punt, you would get odds of 1.5 (1/2). Due to the way the draw has fallen, Robertson, Higgins, Selby and Trump could theoretically be the 4 semi-finalists in the tournament, so dutching could be an interesting option to take. Naturally I expect there to be a shock along the way, but the point is none of these 4 will be knocking each other out in the early rounds. 

Essentially this competition, like most of snooker's tournaments, is up for grabs. If you are someone who enjoys a more risky and money chasing bet, then I would suggest last year's runner-up Shaun Murphy to win at 12 (11/1). As number 4 in the world and also runner-up in the UK Championships, playing some superb snooker along the way, I think he is fairly overpriced this time out. Otherwise though, sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

2012 Review

In keeping with the tradition on this blog (and by that I mean I have done it once), this post will feature a round up of my progress over the last year. I will admit that I have skim read a lot of my posts from the last 12 months as I needed a bit of reminding about what I was up to this time last year! 2012 was a good year for me on the whole however, as I completed my first full season of trading in good profit, and that has continued into this season.

The first few months of last year I was attempting to continue where I had left off in 2011, by trading each week and looking to take a profit close to the target I had set myself. I was mainly focused on developing my own systems, and I took to making spreadsheets and detailing the trades I made in order to see which was proving the most profitable for me. This was a good move as it is something I still stick to today, and not just when trading, in order to keep my dealings as organised as possible. These months didn't really feature a heavy amount of trading however, not compared to 2011 anyway, mainly due to a lack of funds and a lack of time, as my university year was coming to an end. All the while however, I was keeping an eye on the outright markets and plotting my strategy for the following season. May came and I finished the season in a good amount of profit, something I was extremely pleased with given that it was my first year attempting to do so properly.

The summer months were brilliant for sport. The Euros, Wimbledon and then of course the Olympics all over a few months. I continued trading on a smaller scale over these months, taking a profit from the Euros but not really dabbling in the other sports. This is something which I feel I have really kicked from my game in 2012: gambling on unfamiliar sports. On the whole, I have only traded football and snooker, two sports which I feel comfortable with. Betting needlessly on other sports had cost me a fair amount of money in the past, so I am pleased this appears to now be behind me. I did even have a lucky dabble in the manager markets but this was a one off and not something which I could really repeat. July was a momentous month as it saw the year anniversary of the blog, and a proud moment for me as I had wondered whether blogging would be a fad which I would just forget about after a while.

The new season arrived in August and I embarked on my new strategy, one which I hope I will be able to continue for many years. I won't go into detail here on how it is going because I did so in my last post, so please refer to that if you are interested. On the blogging side of things, the blog has evolved to cover things other than my own personal journey by looking at the markets, the teams and players, as well as bets from various bookmakers. This has been a conscious effort as when I read blogs I am more interested in general betting chat than the personal experiences of individuals. This is not to say that personal experiences are boring however, I think the best blogs I read are ones which integrate personal experiences with context from the betting world too.

One thing which has not had too much of a mention this year is matched betting. I have exacerbated the free bets on offer to me, with the exception of the odd reload free bet, so I have moved on to teaching/advising friends and family on how to match bet. This has provided me with a decent sized regular income (at least by my student standards), which has allowed me to generate capital for my trading and live less like a student this year. I have many more 'customers' lined up as well, so this should continue for some time into the new year.

In terms of the blog, it continues to grow and I have almost reached 15,000 hits after four consecutive months of over 1000 views (the first time this has ever happened). December 2012 was my best ever in terms of pageviews with 1418, so long may this upward trend continue!

My plans for 2013 are simple: to keep calm and pass Berbatov the ball. Oh wait, no, wrong one. My actual plan is just to continue as normal, keeping things simple and tidy with no need for drastic changes. I have learned a great deal over the last year, but I am still eager to learn more. I will continue to follow the markets, tweaking my trades here and there and if I finish with a profit this season I will be a very pleased man. I will graduate from university in June (hopefully) and I would very much like to go into marketing for a bookmaker or exchange. I applied for the Sky Bet marketing graduate scheme a couple of months ago but I was rejected, presumably because I have nothing which relates to marketing on my CV! If anyone reading works in such a department (at any firm), some work experience in the summer would be much appreciated! Otherwise, the marketing department of every bookmaker can expect a request for experience at some stage this year!

So that was my year, and my plans for this year also. I would like to thank everyone who has been reading over 2012, it is very much appreciated. I hope you will all continue to follow my journey in 2013. Happy New Year.

Merry Christmas

This is just a short message to wish everyone a very happy Christmas. I was going to do a review of the weekend's football but, to be quite honest, I cannot be bothered! I have plenty more chocolate and other delicacies to enjoy between now and New Year, and everything I talk about will be different in two days anyway (after the Boxing Day fixtures). The Christmas calendar is one of my favourite times in the football season, meaning I will probably be enjoying the games whilst eating, rather than trading!

I hope you all have an excellent Christmas, I will be back after a short festive break.

Festive fixtures - England vs Germany, 'No Man's Land', December 25th 1915.

Last Post Ever

This will be the last post ever on this blog, or in fact any blog, if the Mayans are correct about the end of the world today. If that is to be the case then this post is largely pointless, but I am a gambling man and I'm willing to make a little punt on waking up bright eyed and ready for the weekend's fixtures tomorrow morning. Worst Bet of the Week award goes to the man who placed 50p on the world ending with Coral at 1,000,000/1. Absolute genius. 

Anyway, back to betting talk and I was given a Christmas treat earlier by Sporting Bet who are offering a £100 free bet if you make 10 bets of £10 between now and New Year's Day. This is a massive offer, and you should be able to make £70 at least by matching it effectively. The beauty of it is the minimum odds on the qualifying bets are 1.2, meaning you can find close match odds for a tiny liability. I have already placed all of my qualifying bets, making a small loss of around £5 and it took me less than half an hour, easy money. If you're planning on doing this bet, I would act quickly as Sporting Bet have been known to withdraw their offers rather swiftly after building up big liabilities. I'm sure they won't be the only ones to offer a Christmas gift, so I look forward to that.

Back in the Premier League my lay of West Brom for the top 10 at 1.283 is continuing to flourish as the Baggies are now out to 1.67 after collecting just one point from their last four matches. It was good news down at the bottom of the table as QPR finally won a match, and the market reacted massively jumping them from 1.62 to 1.87 for relegation. This, combined with a thrashing at the hands of Arsenal, had a knock on effect on Reading who are now as low as 1.16 to go down. This is a trying time of year for the lower teams and those who have relied upon a good starting 11 but lack depth in squad are likely to struggle. I expect this to be a crucial factor in QPR's rise out of the relegation zone.

Up at the top, United and City pulled further away from Chelsea after their exploits in Japan allowed Spurs to pull level with them on points in third place. They now sit 1.66 for a top 3 finish and, although they dispelled suggestions they might be jet-lagged by thrashing Leeds in midweek, I just wonder how they will handle 4 games in 11 days, especially with tough games away to Norwich and Everton. They still remain 4 points worse off than at the same time last season, although with a game in a hand this time, which is remarkable considering the level of their investment over the summer months. The previously depressed Arsenal fans have now realised that they are just 2 points off 3rd place, and it is surely not long before they nominate Wenger for a knighthood for the trillionth season in a row. They're now at 1.96 for a top 4 finish, while Spurs are 2.36. One to keep an eye on may be the price of 4.2 for them to finish in the top 3, although liquidity is currently a problem in that market.

That's all from me now, I need to do some last minute Christmas shopping! Enjoy your weekends people, hopefully we will still be here tomorrow for some festive fixtures.

Snooker Carnage

There was drama in the UK Championship last night as Neil Robertson and Mark Selby played out an  epic in the quarter finals. In the best of 11 match, Robertson raced into a 4-0 lead and was matched as low as 1.04, before totally capitulating and losing 6-4. Selby was matched as high as 85 in-play to win the tournament, and now sits favourite at 2.5 meaning someone had a nice cash out this morning. Elsewhere, pre tournament favourite Judd Trump crashed out in the first round and 17 year old Luca Brecel impressed before eventually being edged out by Shaun Murphy in the quarters. I watched Brecel at the World Championships last year and he certainly seems destined for big things, I think we may be seeing much more of him over the next few years.

Over in football the big match is obviously the derby this weekend and Bet365 are treating us to another of their £50 in play free bets. Apart from this, I probably won't get much of a chance to trade this weekend due to end-of-term university work, but I did manage to take a £25 profit over the last week. I'm currently waiting for my bet on Everton to win the league 'without the top 6' to be matched, as at the moment this looks like a straight battle between them and Liverpool, and the latter look distinctly unimpressive so far, especially with Europe to contend with as well. Last week the big match for me was Bayern vs Dortmund, with Dortmund desperately needing a win to kick start their title charge. It was not to be however, and the match finished 1-1 leaving Bayern's odds of winning the title still around 1.11.

I decided not to take Newcastle to finish top 10 as there were too many factors in the way for me. I do  still admire them and the players they possess though, and I will be hoping they recapture last years form. Only time will tell if I made the right decision here. Enjoy your weekend.

Polar Opposites

Fourteen games into the season and some interesting angles are beginning to open in the markets. Up top it seems quite routine at the moment, with the Manchester duo powering ahead and both neck and neck for the title, both at odds of 2.3. There is little to choose between the two at present, but the derby next weekend should give us a better indicator. Chelsea have seriously dropped off the pace at the moment and, despite Benitez's appointment, I can't see them seriously challenging long term this season. If we look at the standings at this stage last season, interestingly Chelsea are actually 2 points worse off than they were under Villas Boas, despite all the money they have spent and their quick start to this campaign. United backers will probably take encouragement from the fact that United are on the same amount of points as 2011/12, yet City are 6 points worse off.

Not surprisingly, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs are significantly down on last years tallies, while Everton have made an improvement. The biggest movers however, are the flourishing West Brom and the floundering Newcastle. West Brom are 11 points better off, while Newcastle are 12 points worse off, currently sitting at 1.23 and 2.82 respectively to finish in the top 10. I take issue with people saying that West Brom are 'over-achieving' as it suggests they don't deserve their position, when they have performed excellently so far and deserve this success. I do however, feel that this is a success which may be relatively short lived and have therefore chosen to lay them for the top 10 at the short price of 1.28. Newcastle on the other hand are a more confusing matter, having been hit severely by injuries and facing the difficulties of balancing a European competition with the league. They also have the matter of the African Cup of Nations which will probably see them lose a number of important players throughout January. Despite this however, I still feel they have a good team, and one which is certainly capable of making the top 10. They're currently only 5 points off the top half and the price of 2.82 is looking increasingly tempting to me, I will decide over the next couple of days whether to take it or not.

Down at the bottom I have joined the Redknapp bandwagon and layed QPR for relegation at 1.9. I expect Harry to have some impact, at least, on the squad which is clearly a lot better than their current position. There is also the possibility that the owners might invest more cash in January so the current price is attractive for many reasons. If they get one win I reckon momentum might pull them out of the bottom 3 quite quickly.  

Elsewhere the UK Championships start tomorrow and I can't wait. I won't be trading it, apart from a £5 interest bet on Robertson, but I will just enjoy it as a spectacle. Good luck with your weekend trading.

Trading the outrights in-play: Do or Don't?

With another weekend of comebacks and collapses from the Premier League's so called 'elite', I stumbled across an interesting thought when watching the outright markets: is it wise to place bets on the outright markets when matches are in-play? As regular readers will know, the outright markets are where I have been focusing a lot of my attention this season, and this thought appeared in my mind when I looked at the odds in-play. Over the weekend both United and City went behind, and the winners market yo-yo'd accordingly. With United starting at 2.15 to win the title, they drifted to around 2.6 after slipping two goals behind, before Chicharito completed the comeback and they ended the match hovering between 2 and 2.1 for the title. Similarly, City started Sunday around 3.3, before drifting massively to 4.5 whilst being held by Spurs, and finally completed their comeback to return to the 3.2-3 mark. 

Man United Graph

Man City Graph

This got me thinking about if it is worth getting involved in-play in order to take an over-reactionary price in the market. If we have learned anything over the last decade or so it is that United, and now City, are masters of the comeback and rarely slip to unusual defeats. United in particular have been particularly poor at the back this season, but have so far had enough firepower to keep coming from behind time and time again. The benefit of taking a high price in-play and banking on a comeback is that, should the team fail to come back in that particular match, the trade is not lost and it can continue for the duration of the season. But although the price may seem attractive at the time, there is still scope to say that more often than not you will end up with egg on your face.

The problem with taking the prices in-play is that the prices are disfigured, and although that could work in your favour at times, it is more likely to confuse you in the long run. The length of a match is far too short a time to be making any big or rash decisions. I don't believe anyone should make huge decisions based on a team's performance in one match, or even one half of a match, as things can change very quickly in football. Sure, most people trade the in-play match markets throughout the game, but the outright markets require a lot more attention. For starters, the amount wagered would need to be large to take any decent size profit from the trade, and such a quantity would be something I would be uncomfortable with on an impromptu bet. Another reason to hold back and let the match unfold, is that you will probably get a higher price if the result stays the same, than you would in-play. The odds on City to win the title are going to be larger after they have LOST to Spurs, rather than whilst they are LOSING and might possibly lose in the end. 

Lastly, and most crucially in my opinion, is why not just trade the match odds market if you think a comeback is on? They have the potential to be so much more lucrative and you need not risk such large sums either. Had you put £100 on United to win the title at 2.6 when they were 2-0 down to Villa, you could now take a £25 profit on all scenarios. If you put £100 on United to beat Villa at top in-play price 11.5, well, you do the maths. And while you could argue £100 is a lot to stake on the last 40 minutes of a football match, you would only needed to have staked around £2.50 to take a £25 profit. 

This weekend was another positive one for me as I made another small chunk of profit, and my outright trades continued to progress. The results at the Emirates and Stamford Bridge were almost perfect for me, it is just a shame that Spurs couldn't hold on that tiny bit longer. It's unlikely I will be trading the internationals and I am bored already of Wilfried Zaha, who has suddenly become the most sought after player on the planet. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this blog topic, particularly from anyone who does trade the markets in-play. There must be someone out there, because otherwise there wouldn't be movements! 

Cashing out and topping up

This last week of football has been pretty dire. Regular followers of this blog will know how much I despise the international breaks, especially when the Premier League is just kicking into gear. Finally the domestic action is back and tomorrow starts with what should be a cracker from the Lane, and my money will be on Spurs, for what it's worth.

This week I have been exiting a number of trades, while topping up others and entering one more. As previously stated, Norwich and Spurs have both done enough for me so I exited the trades which involved them. On the Norwich to be relegated bet I traded out for around £31 on both scenarios for a 37% profit, which I was happy with given that my target was 10%. The 'Spurs to finish top 6' and 'Norwich to finish rock bottom' bets I took my stake back from, but have left the profit on one side for now and will look to even it up at a later date. I reduced my liability on the Fulham top 10 bet by 50%, and will look to take a full profit of around 25% in the future sometime.

After much umming and ahhing, I have decided to top up on my Arsenal top 4 lay rather than take a loss at this time. After studying recent years and talking to others about the trade, I think it is unlikely Arsenal will remain as low as 1.5 all season, so I think the right thing to do is to lay them further, leaving my liability on the trade around £184. I mentioned before that I was looking to find a way to oppose Chelsea, and I have decided to lay them for the top 2 at odds of 2.2 for £121. I didn't really have a great deal of choice on this one, seeing as the winners price of 4.4 is far to high for me to take on, which really only left this market and the 'winners without the top 2' market. Liquidity is a bit of an issue and this led me to take a price slightly higher than I wanted, but hopefully it will be okay when it comes to trading out. I also topped up £25 on the straight forecast bets, leaving my liability on that market at £175.


I don't have a great deal else to report today as the week has been largely dull, but I am looking forward to seeing how these new trades perform. Have a good weekend.

Fergie's woes

Manchester United's defence has been more shaky than John Terry's in recent weeks and they have being playing havoc with the betting markets, providing opportunities and pitfalls for those who dare to get involved. As a United fan myself, I have always maintained that I don't bet on their matches and, generally, I stick to that. The trouble with supporting a big team however, is that when opportunities do arise, which is often rare, they are normally potentials for big market swings. So far this season United have consistently gone behind in their matches, doing so in 5 of their 6 league games and going on to win 4 of those. This, obviously, opens up the door to backing United at an inflated price in the hope that they pull off one of their famous escapes. It is at this point in each match where I have had to battle my conscience and try and determine whether I am looking to back United from an entirely rational point of view. In each case however, I am fairly sure that I was looking at the game fairly and my choice to back United on numerous occasions was entirely justified, given their firepower and penchant for comebacks. I chose not to back them against Everton, because I could see the Toffees were playing very well, and I ignored them against Liverpool too as Anfield is a horrible place to play. Against Southampton and Cluj I took a profit, yet against Spurs I predictably recorded a loss. I am fairly certain though that the choice I made to lay Spurs that day had no relation to the fact that I support United, and that I would have done the same had they taken a 2-0 lead at City, Chelsea or even Arsenal. With United's home record, record against Spurs, comeback record against Spurs, factored in, I would certainly choose the same choice if the scenario repeated itself. I have mentioned before about learning from mistakes, but a loss should not always be looked upon in a negative way. Sometimes making a loss but knowing you did the right thing is better than taking a bad profit.

The thing which has put me in the red over the past couple of weeks however, is the poor way in which I have managed my stakes. With all these United turnarounds I should really be in profit, but levying my stakes poorly (which involved a bigger red on the Spurs match than the greens on Cluj and Southampton) was a mistake which I should be working on. Particularly midweek, my confidence was tarnished from the loss against Spurs so I half heartedly entered the market against Cluj to take only a small profit. The last couple of weeks has seen me lose £18.65, still small money but with my aspirations set on building small amounts of profit this has set my targets back a little.

My long term trades are fairing much better however, and the upside of the Spurs shock was that my bet on them to finish in the top six gained a welcome boost (though that did little to quell my bad mood that day). They now sit in fifth place and their top six price is down to a more realistic 1.43/49. It is likely that I will trade out of this after their home match against Aston Villa this weekend. On the relegation front Norwich have been performing suitably awfully, and after topping up last week at 2.12, I am happy to see them now as low as 1.73/4. Fulham are still going well but the top 10 market still seems to be suffering from a lack of liquidity, meaning I haven't had a chance to get out just yet. I may leave the bet for a little longer than I had planned though, as I think this is one which could develop over the year, and I am fairly confident it will pay out for me. The only bet which is struggling at the moment is the Arsenal top 4 lay, despite their recent downturn of form. I now see that laying them at a price as high as 1.89 was a very poor decision, and I might be forced to take a loss on that one, as I can't see it trading that high any time soon.

Good luck for the weekend, I hope it is fruitful for you all.

The life of a trader. Discuss.

I read an interesting article earlier over on The Sultan's blog, where he wrote about different people's approaches to trading sports professionally. I think it is an intriguing topic and I'd just like to add my thoughts. The post can be found here incidentally: http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/sacrificing-social-life.html

In short, Sultan was describing how he has had to make sacrifices in his life in order to work as a professional trader, and that without these sacrifices one cannot hope to be successful in their work. I largely agree with what he was saying and I find it strange that anyone would be deluded enough to think anything different from this. I have read posts or comments by some people who seem to fail to realise that if you decide to trade professionally, then this is actually a JOB, no longer a pastime. Undeniably, the make up of this particular job is vastly different from the 'typical' work environment, but the fundamental basics should still remain the same. Sultan refers to one guy who claimed he was going to trade on his phone whilst at a party. Erm, sorry, what? How many people do you know who go to a party and do work? And if these parties do exist, then these people really need new friends. Whilst trading may be a different type of job from something in an office, or a job at Tesco, or a binman, it doesn't mean that it deserves any less respect, and if you want to succeed at it that is how it needs to be. The higher up the professional scale you get the more sacrifices are needed, I doubt bank managers and top editors have much time for partying, for example. Another thing is that betting on a mobile is dangerous. I lose more bets than I win when I bet on my phone, mainly because the correct mindset is not there, while it is too easy to just stick something on and become distracted.

'Picard007' commented on the post saying: 'I must admit that I had this imagination of, if I invest 10 hours a day for 3 months I will be in profit soon. My hard work will pay off. It was a complete shock, that it did not and actually cost me a lot of money.' This slightly naive thinking (though who hasn't been the subject naivety over time?), is a belief which I feel contradicts my thoughts on trading professionally. If someone truly wants to go into trading, then they need to WANT to, and success will only happen over time, you cannot force it. It isn't a regular job, and it takes dedication to reach the level of The Sultan, for instance. It is easy to read his blog or other P+L blogs and think that it looks easy and fun, but the truth is that that is unrealistic. I spend a lot of time observing the markets and researching stats, whilst watching a lot of games and reading betting articles, but I am still far from the point needed to go professional and turn a consistent profit big enough to sustain any form of a lifestyle. There is a difference of course. I do it because I enjoy it with no real ambition to ever go full-time. But I think the fundamentals are the same, mainly because I aim to make money. Another point is that one cannot expect to learn all he needs to learn in 3 months, it simply isn't enough time to gain enough experience, just like anything else. One of the biggest things which has helped me improve over time is making mistakes, and I think that they are crucial to becoming successful in the long run. Everyone makes mistakes over time, and as long as you learn from them they can be as rewarding as any profit achieved. I look back over my mistakes over the past year or two and laugh, but I know that these were necessary to my education, and rarely have I made the same mistake again.

Another key point which was touched upon in Picard's comment was, profit aside, the benefits which trading brings to a person, most of all: discipline. I agree with Sultan and Picard who both agreed that discipline was a key aspect of their life which had been improved thanks to trading, and I feel the same way. My control of money is a lot stricter these days, both in and out of Betfair, and I value the odd pound or two a lot more also. My maths and statistical skills have improved, though both are still at a basic level, and I always find myself surprised at how often people talk of 'the odds' or bets, at which point I normally burst in with my superior knowledge (ahem) of the markets.

Each trader is different and I appreciate that. Personally, I trade part time to supplement my student income, and I choose trading over a part time job because I get pleasure from it, not necessarily because the profits are greater. It also suits me to trade whenever I feel like it, something which would not happen if I was to take the big step up to professionalism. I cannot see myself ever going professional as I don't think it is the life for me necessarily, but I am looking to go into the betting industry in some way and I think the knowledge I have accrued over time would give me an advantage in the marketing sector, for instance. (Incidentally, if anyone is reading and would like to give a newly graduated guy a job around June-time, that would be very handy ; ) ) Joking aside, whatever sector I enter I can see myself trading on the side in the future, just because I enjoy it.

Last word from me now. If you are going to trade then the most crucial thing is the 'Big P' - not profit, but passion. If you have enough passion then the other P will come.

Trading is easy...

...when the favourite goes behind. It is probably one of the oldest and most simple techniques in trading, but it has been working out for me, and I'm sure quite a few others too, in the opening weeks. I mentioned before the start of the season that I expected goals and shaky defences to be a theme of the coming season and it hasn't disappointed yet. The Champions have recorded wins of 3-2 and 3-1, along with a 2-2 draw and a 3-2 in the Community Shield, while their neighbours have followed suit with two 3-2 wins in a row. As I said before, the mid table teams have strengthened well and the big teams are going to struggle to win every match, particularly away from home. For now trading the overs looks the way to go.

My trading has been slow but steady in the opening weeks. I haven't had a wealth of time and the size of my bank (£50) has restricted me to small stakes. I also like to assess the new season and get a feel for each team before I go charging in anyway, so it has been working just fine for me. So far I have taken a small but positive £19.61 profit. Bank building is one of the things I am best at, in my humble opinion, so taking small but steady profits is something I quite like to do. I am going back to university next weekend, and that is normally where my proper trading takes hold, so I look forward to that. This weekend my opportunities will be limited as I am off to Old Trafford on Saturday.

For now though just sit back and relax, and thank the Lord that the international bore-fest is over.