Friday, 30 November 2012

Polar Opposites

Fourteen games into the season and some interesting angles are beginning to open in the markets. Up top it seems quite routine at the moment, with the Manchester duo powering ahead and both neck and neck for the title, both at odds of 2.3. There is little to choose between the two at present, but the derby next weekend should give us a better indicator. Chelsea have seriously dropped off the pace at the moment and, despite Benitez's appointment, I can't see them seriously challenging long term this season. If we look at the standings at this stage last season, interestingly Chelsea are actually 2 points worse off than they were under Villas Boas, despite all the money they have spent and their quick start to this campaign. United backers will probably take encouragement from the fact that United are on the same amount of points as 2011/12, yet City are 6 points worse off.

Not surprisingly, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs are significantly down on last years tallies, while Everton have made an improvement. The biggest movers however, are the flourishing West Brom and the floundering Newcastle. West Brom are 11 points better off, while Newcastle are 12 points worse off, currently sitting at 1.23 and 2.82 respectively to finish in the top 10. I take issue with people saying that West Brom are 'over-achieving' as it suggests they don't deserve their position, when they have performed excellently so far and deserve this success. I do however, feel that this is a success which may be relatively short lived and have therefore chosen to lay them for the top 10 at the short price of 1.28. Newcastle on the other hand are a more confusing matter, having been hit severely by injuries and facing the difficulties of balancing a European competition with the league. They also have the matter of the African Cup of Nations which will probably see them lose a number of important players throughout January. Despite this however, I still feel they have a good team, and one which is certainly capable of making the top 10. They're currently only 5 points off the top half and the price of 2.82 is looking increasingly tempting to me, I will decide over the next couple of days whether to take it or not.

Down at the bottom I have joined the Redknapp bandwagon and layed QPR for relegation at 1.9. I expect Harry to have some impact, at least, on the squad which is clearly a lot better than their current position. There is also the possibility that the owners might invest more cash in January so the current price is attractive for many reasons. If they get one win I reckon momentum might pull them out of the bottom 3 quite quickly.  

Elsewhere the UK Championships start tomorrow and I can't wait. I won't be trading it, apart from a £5 interest bet on Robertson, but I will just enjoy it as a spectacle. Good luck with your weekend trading.

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