Long Shots

I was looking through a couple of old posts on my blog when I stumbled across this from April last year. It is a long post but among the waffle I found an interesting point by former self:

'...after 9 games 7 Bayern wins, 1 draw and a loss, 25 goals for and 1 against, saw them 5 points clear and as low as 1.2 for the title. 1.2?! After 9 games? This isn't Spain. Their form naturally deteriorated and now Dortmund are 8 points clear and unbackable on Betfair. Lesson learned, and that is what I will look to do next year.' 

This season has seen a similar pattern as Bayern have rushed into the lead leaving everyone in their wake and after 11 games were W10 D0 L1 F32 A4, 7 points ahead of their nearest competitor Schalke, and odds of 1.11 to win the title. They did recruit players such as Shaqiri and Mandzukic over the summer, but this is still a team who finished 8 points off Dortmund last season. One of the main reasons for the short price is the poor start by defending champions Dortmund, who sat 11 points behind Bayern after 11 games. Dortmund did however manage to keep the majority of their team over the summer, including stars such as Lewandowski and Reus, and have demonstrated their technical abilities in the Champions League, particularly against Real Madrid. With all this taken into account I chose to lay Bayern at 1.12 for £400 (liability £48), and I would be surprised if I didn't see a profit on this at some point in the season. This weekend Bayern dropped 2 points away to Nuremburg and Dortmund won at home to Furth. Bayern actually extended their lead to 8 points because the two below them both lost, but Dortmund are my best hope at chasing down Munich so it is their results which are the most crucial. After the weekend Bayern drifted a tiny amount to 1.13/1.14, hopefully it'll continue. I contemplated doing the same thing with Barca, but the Spanish league is a different thing all together, so I have decided to leave that one well alone. Instead I took on Chelsea to finish in the top 3 at 1.27. 

I chose to trade out half of my liability in the Arsenal top 4 bet at evens, which was handy because they're now down to 1.74 after their derby win. I'm going to leave the remainder of it for now because they still have a couple of tough games to come. By my reckoning however, I think it is almost time for them to hit their purple patch, and an easy Christmas period might mean that I switch to backing them rather than laying them. It'll depends on where the odds are in a few weeks though so I shall let you know.

Elsewhere I had a very poor week this week and made a loss of around £15. I don't really think I did a great deal wrong to be honest, apart from in one game where I made a bad decision, but mainly the results went against the trends in the matches I picked. It is swings and roundabouts though, and I have been having a number of profitable weeks so I guess this is just one of those weeks where luck eludes you. You can't win all the time.

Tonight is the Champions League and I'm not sure I will be dabbling too much in those murky waters. Some teams are already through, and some are already out so mindsets completely change and it is difficult to call. If I do get involved it will be small stakes. Good luck if you have a bet tonight.