The Premier League winners market 2013/14

As I write the title I am a little shock to see I am writing '13/14', where does time go?! I still think back to the seasons of 00/01/02 as being yesteryear but it really isn't anymore. Anyway, enough inane tittle and on to the most important topic of the season: who will win the Premier League?

The summer seems to have been a manager's summer, and unusually each team has a new boss going into the new season. This creates something of a problem for bettors as it means we are entering something of an unknown. That being said however, I do think that a more than necessary emphasis has been placed upon the three incoming managers and it is going to be more down to the players on this occasion. Of course there is also the added difficulty of the season beginning before the transfer window slams shut and there are still some big names to decide on their futures. Regardless, here is what I think at this moment in time:

Manchester City have gone about their summer dealings uncharacteristically quietly and sensibly. It appears to be a Pellegrini-effect as he has chosen to keep below radar in his first months in charge. Problem characters such as Tevez and Balotelli have been discarded and the squad has silently and carefully rebuilt following their disappointment last season. This does not mean they haven't spent a great deal of money however - adding the likes of Navas, Negredo, Fernandinho and others for hefty fees. I imagine it will be a completely different looking City and one which operates a lot more functionally and organised. Last season they had the best defence in the league and barring the injury to Nastasic there is no reason they cannot continue that into this year. Odds on City to record the most clean sheets are not amazingly appealing at evens with Paddypower, but possibly worth a consideration when you look at the frailties in United and Chelsea's defences. The focus over the summer has been bolstering the attack and in Alvaro Negredo they have a proven goalscorer. Whether he will start ahead of Aguero often enough is difficult to call, but 28/1 with Sportingbet for Negredo to be top scorer is certainly tempting, especially considering he bagged 31 in 42 last year with Sevilla. Going into the opening match City are favourites for the title at 3.2 on Betfair, and overall that looks like a sensible price-up. They have the experience of winning a title in recent years and will be a lot more disciplined and focused this season.

The Special One is back at Chelsea and is making a particular noise with the Wayne Rooney saga. It strikes me that Chelsea have been very clever in their dealings with Rooney and have royally stitched United up. Undoubtedly Mourinho wants the player and if he gets him it will be an almighty blow to both Moyes and United, and Chelsea's title hopes would likely increase somewhat, but even if he does not succeed Rooney has created a situation where the United fans are now against him and he is 'stuck' in a team he does not want to play in. The irony of it all that he asked for greater players to be signed at the club, only to fall behind Van Persie in the pecking order and get the hump. Moving on from Rooney however, as we cannot really factor in things we do not know the outcome of yet, and Chelsea appear to be slightly overpriced in my view due to the Mourinho effect. They have signed decent players in Schurrle and Van Ginkel, and will certainly benefit from the return of Lukaku, but apart from that they appear to have a similar squad to last year but with some of the spine of the team a year older. They finished 14 points off United last season and that number probably would have been larger had United not had the title done weeks before the end (therefore playing with less interest vs Chelsea at Old Trafford in the 0-1 defeat), leading me to believe there is not a great deal of value in their odds of 3.35 at the moment. Of slightly more interest is the 24/1 available on Lukaku to be top scorer with various bookies, along with Mata to record top assists at 11/1 with Boylesports.

Manchester United are certainly an enigma this season following the retirement of their leader over the last double decade and more. They trounced the league last year but it will certainly not be quite so easy this year, and they begin the season perhaps somewhat unfairly as third favourites at 3.9. They have the same team as last year, with the possible exception of Rooney if he does leave the club, but presumably the assumption is that the lack of imported talent has meant that the other two have caught up somewhat and even overtaken the champions. While I agree that United should have already strengthened their squad as there are particular obvious areas of weakness, I cannot see that Chelsea have made enough of a step up to overtake United as second favourites. Should Rooney leave for Chelsea however, then that would change matters completely, and perhaps the market is as it is because it has already anticipated this move. I think it is unlikely Moyes will end the transfer season without adding a name to his squad, though it might not be the big-name player he so craves, meaning the purchase is likely to be Everton-sourced. The lack of a new playmaker and the possible departure of Rooney could mean an increased role for the talented Kagawa, who showed great promise last season despite spending most of his time on the bench. As an outside shot, he can be got at 21/1 to record the most assists this season with Paddypower. I think United are going to be very prone to market over-reactions this year given the departure of Ferguson and the unknown which surrounds Moyes. A bad run could see them drift out massively so I would advise waiting to see how they get on before backing them, therefore possibly grabbing much longer odds. The 'top 3' market should also be closely observed as United are already at 1.47 and could push out even further making for a tasty trade. It is unlikely that an unchanged Arsenal side (currently 4th favs for top 3) is going to outperform an unchanged United team in my opinion, but who knows.

One thing I am sure of; regardless of where Luis Suarez or Gareth Bale ends up these three teams will be the only ones seriously challenging for the Premier League title. Spurs and Arsenal have good squads but miles away from the title winning squads they need. As for which of the three will take the title, I do not know! Last season I made the mistake of laying United when they were out in front and I took one of my biggest losses of the season on them when they triumphed with ease. In truth, I hated laying United as a United fan, as I found myself caught in two minds and wasn't able to just bask in the glory I should have been enjoying, so maybe this year I will consider if it is really worth it.

Over the last two seasons a successful market has been the straight forecast, although this year the odds are a lot more appealing, though of course a lot more difficult to predict! For the best value I would currently look to Man City 1st/ United 2nd at 8.4 as it will probably trade lower throughout the season, especially if United beat Chelsea early on at Old Trafford.

This season will chop and change, there will be plenty of trading opportunities in this market, it will just be all about picking the right moments. I can't wait.

End of a very long era

The big news this week has obviously been Sir Alex's retirement and tributes have been flooding in from all around the globe as English football's most successful manager of all time is hanging up his hairdryer at the age of 71. I don't know if we will ever see a manager quite like him and it will be very sad to see him go, particularly as I have not been alive long enough to have ever seen anyone else manage Manchester United. I'm sure he doesn't need me to tell how good he is though so we will have a look at what this has done to the markets instead, along with the news that David Moyes will have the horrendously difficult task of succeeding the Great Man.

The United share price was reported to have dropped 5% after Ferguson's news hit the stock exchange, before recovering by the end of the week to finish around what it started the week as. Although the Betfair markets have been more ruthless and unforgiving to United's title hopes next season, we did see the price shorten a small amount after Moyes' appointment. I can't help but think that the praise and support he is being given by the majority of the media is having some impact upon this, as people are beginning to realise that possibly losing Ferguson is not the worst thing in the world. It is difficult to see what impact the 'Rooney out' stories are having on this price but I don't believe it would make too much of a difference unless he was sold to a Premier League club. As I write, City and United both sit on 3.1 for the title next season in a market which was only opened a few weeks ago by Betfair. United have been matched as low as 2 and as high as 3.25, with the latter during this tumultuous week. City, who started the week around 3.45 were backed into 2.7 before drifting back out to their current price.

It is Chelsea though who have been the biggest movers due to the Mourinho chat/Ferguson's departure/Moyes installment (ie not Mourinho)/Almost definitely securing their top 3 place. They are in from a high of 5.8 to 3.85 now, having been matched as low as 3.55 during this week. Needless to say the market already has this down as a three-horse race.


It would be interesting to see what the loss of Moyes has done to Everton's perceived hopes next season but there isn't really any data to show this so far. Sky Bet go 2/1 that they will finish top 6 next season but I have nothing to compare this to as I do not know the price before this week. One thing which has been affected for Everton is the potential loss of their top players and those of you who follow me on Twitter would have seen I tweeted Coral had Baines to go to United before September at a huge 16/1, before quickly altering this to 2/1. Luckily I was able to have a small dabble of £10 at the 16/1 price, although I normally don't get involved in markets like this I knew the price was not an accurate reflection of the situation and jumped on it accordingly.

Overall it is clear that the prices I am quoting now will not be the same by the season opener as there is still so much to be resolved. Chelsea and City look to be changing their managers and I imagine they and United will be spending big this summer too. The Rooney situation is unresolved and should he go to City or Chelsea it would really shake things up.

For now though, we should just savour the end of a brilliant career as Sir Alex bows out in style.

Drab TV

Good morning sports fans, I hope you've all recovered after another brilliant Cheltenham festival. It really got me in the mood for racing and I can't wait to go to the National in a few weeks now! From a profit perspective I did well, mainly through the help of Bonus Bagging, and made around £150 matched betting the various offers and enhancements going around. I only had a couple of real bets and they both lost, therefore showing the reason I don't tend to bet on horses! The fun doesn't end here for sports lovers though as we have a big couple of months coming up with the return of F1, the Six Nations, the conclusion of the football season, the snooker world championship, the Masters, Aintree and more. Unfortunately from a football perspective, ESPN and SkySports have picked a poor schedule this weekend when I personally feel there are much more exciting games on. United-Reading, while I am sure it might attract a big audience, is not a very appealing game and the same fixture was on TV a few weeks ago in the FA Cup. I'm sure neutrals would much rather watch Swansea-Arsenal or Villa-QPR to be honest. Tomorrow Sky have Sunderland-Norwich on for some completely bizarre reason, having already shown the reverse fixture earlier in the season.

The aforementioned Villa-QPR match is the obvious big one this weekend and could have a massive impact on the relegation markets. Villa (currently 2.3 for the drop) will climb to 30 points with a win, 6 points off the drop with Wigan having 2 in hand, and you would have to feel that this would leave QPR (currently 1.54 for the drop) in a very poor position. A win for the Hoops would of course mean a complete reverse and would leave them a point behind Villa, but surely Harry can't pull off three victories in a row, surely? Keep an eye on Southampton though, a loss today and wins for Villa and Wigan (at home to Newcastle tomorrow) would put them one point clear of relegation, and they have some tough matches to come. The price of 3.95 on them to go down could soon evaporate. Elsewhere, Arsenal can apply the pressure on what must be a fatigued Spurs for the fourth place spot (though it is currently occupied by Chelsea), by winning away at Swansea. You can currently lay Spurs at 1.43 if you think they will falter between now and the end of the season, and this is a price I have taken. I think they still will finish in the top 4 and I hope they do too, but I think it will be close as Arsenal have a much favourable run-in and nothing else to worry about.

Up at the top City need to win today at Everton to have any chance of the title. Although Everton have been faltering recently it is still a tough place to go and big teams often struggle there. I do feel however that United's season is in a vulnerable position at the moment, despite their big lead at the top. They are out of one cup and threw away a good lead in another, and I think they desperately need a win today before the international break. Anything other than a win and those little demons might just creep into their minds. They are available to lay at 1.06 if you think this is likely.

Enjoy your weekend.

Deadlock is Broken

After many weeks and 16 matches of see-sawing in the Premier League, we now have a clear favourite for the title for the first time this season. Having bounced around at odds of 2s and 3s in weeks previous, Manchester United are now odds-on at 1.61 to win the title, having pulled 6 points clear after Sunday's derby. Manchester City are yet to go below evens this season, while Chelsea were only matched as low as 3.35, despite their electrifying start.

To suggest the title race is over however is preposterous, and anyone uttering those words really knows little about football, particularly English football. Laying United at 1.61 is almost definite to see a return at some point in the campaign, but a more appealing lay looks to be the EVENS on United 1st/City 2nd in the straight forecast, as it allows for more variables to affect the bet. This means that even in the unlikely event that City do not put up a fight for their crown, the bet will still prosper if City are pressured for 2nd place by Chelsea or another contender. Odds of 3.5 on City 1st/United 2nd are also worth considering, although liquidity is currently an issue in that market.

At the other end of the table the boys are beginning to be sorted from the men, and both QPR (1.61) and Reading (1.34) remain odds-on for relegation, though all could change tonight with the 6-pointer between Sunderland and Reading. At present, QPR's price appears to be being maintained at a higher point than it perhaps should be, with the side currently 8 points from safety, which is presumably due to the Redknapp effect. Every winless week however sees them slip that little bit lower, and if there is no win very soon, then it won't be long before their price slips sub 1.5. Further up, we have Sunderland at 3.75, Aston Villa at 3.75 and Wigan at 3.15, which are particularly generous prices considering the form of these teams thus far. The trick is however picking the team which will continue to plummet. At this stage last year, Wigan were only two points worse off than this season, and found themselves bottom of the table by match week 22, six games from now. Paradoxically, Sunderland surged up the table, while Villa maintained a steady pace in mid-table. Although these stats are hardly foolproof, especially considering Sunderland's surge was largely due to a managerial change around this stage last season, it is a decent guide and is certainly worth considering.

The next 5 fixtures for each team are as follows:

WIGAN- Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Everton (A), Villa (A), Man Utd (H).
SUNDERLAND - Reading (H), Man Utd (A), Southampton (A), Man City (H), Spurs (H).
ASTON VILLA - Liverpool (A), Chelsea (A), Spurs (H), Wigan (H), Swansea (A).

Each of the three appear to have a tricky Christmas period in store, and there isn't really a great deal of difference between any of the lists. Although Sunderland have the most home matches, they are against top 6 teams (tonight's match excluded) and if they were to win tonight, it would certainly be worth looking at their relegation price as a back-to-lay option. Villa likewise could see themselves further in the cesspit after their next three games, but the match at home to Wigan will be a crucial 6 pointer.

That's all from me, I hope you enjoy your week.

Trading the outrights in-play: Do or Don't?

With another weekend of comebacks and collapses from the Premier League's so called 'elite', I stumbled across an interesting thought when watching the outright markets: is it wise to place bets on the outright markets when matches are in-play? As regular readers will know, the outright markets are where I have been focusing a lot of my attention this season, and this thought appeared in my mind when I looked at the odds in-play. Over the weekend both United and City went behind, and the winners market yo-yo'd accordingly. With United starting at 2.15 to win the title, they drifted to around 2.6 after slipping two goals behind, before Chicharito completed the comeback and they ended the match hovering between 2 and 2.1 for the title. Similarly, City started Sunday around 3.3, before drifting massively to 4.5 whilst being held by Spurs, and finally completed their comeback to return to the 3.2-3 mark. 

Man United Graph

Man City Graph

This got me thinking about if it is worth getting involved in-play in order to take an over-reactionary price in the market. If we have learned anything over the last decade or so it is that United, and now City, are masters of the comeback and rarely slip to unusual defeats. United in particular have been particularly poor at the back this season, but have so far had enough firepower to keep coming from behind time and time again. The benefit of taking a high price in-play and banking on a comeback is that, should the team fail to come back in that particular match, the trade is not lost and it can continue for the duration of the season. But although the price may seem attractive at the time, there is still scope to say that more often than not you will end up with egg on your face.

The problem with taking the prices in-play is that the prices are disfigured, and although that could work in your favour at times, it is more likely to confuse you in the long run. The length of a match is far too short a time to be making any big or rash decisions. I don't believe anyone should make huge decisions based on a team's performance in one match, or even one half of a match, as things can change very quickly in football. Sure, most people trade the in-play match markets throughout the game, but the outright markets require a lot more attention. For starters, the amount wagered would need to be large to take any decent size profit from the trade, and such a quantity would be something I would be uncomfortable with on an impromptu bet. Another reason to hold back and let the match unfold, is that you will probably get a higher price if the result stays the same, than you would in-play. The odds on City to win the title are going to be larger after they have LOST to Spurs, rather than whilst they are LOSING and might possibly lose in the end. 

Lastly, and most crucially in my opinion, is why not just trade the match odds market if you think a comeback is on? They have the potential to be so much more lucrative and you need not risk such large sums either. Had you put £100 on United to win the title at 2.6 when they were 2-0 down to Villa, you could now take a £25 profit on all scenarios. If you put £100 on United to beat Villa at top in-play price 11.5, well, you do the maths. And while you could argue £100 is a lot to stake on the last 40 minutes of a football match, you would only needed to have staked around £2.50 to take a £25 profit. 

This weekend was another positive one for me as I made another small chunk of profit, and my outright trades continued to progress. The results at the Emirates and Stamford Bridge were almost perfect for me, it is just a shame that Spurs couldn't hold on that tiny bit longer. It's unlikely I will be trading the internationals and I am bored already of Wilfried Zaha, who has suddenly become the most sought after player on the planet. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this blog topic, particularly from anyone who does trade the markets in-play. There must be someone out there, because otherwise there wouldn't be movements! 

10,000 Not Out

Today I passed the 10,000 hit mark on my blog and would like to take a minute to thank everyone who has read, promoted or mentioned my blog over the last year and a bit. I would probably still write the blog even if only 10 people had read it, so to have a fair amount of hits is a huge bonus to me. I see the blog as a good way of ordering my thoughts, as well as keeping a good record of my fads and profits over time, and I will endeavour to keep blogging throughout this year. Thank you all. 

The league is finally beginning to take shape now and I always find it strange that after as little as four games the league generally tends to have ordered the top end of the table fairly accurately, in relation to how they will finish in May. After a slow start, Arsenal have settled down and have powered themselves into the top 4, causing punters to slash their price both in the top 4 market and the winners market. Having been matched at a high of 28, Arsenal are now as low as 12 on Betfair to win the title for the first time since 2004. As far as I am concerned, anyone backing Arsenal at that price (or any price at all for that matter) is absolutely mental. They beat the worst team in the league 6-1 and recorded a good victory at Anfield, albeit a poor Liverpool team, but I would not even consider them for the title, particularly not at this early stage. They face Man City and Chelsea in the next couple of weeks and I think we could see a knock back to reality for the Arsenal contingent. Their top 4 price is now at 1.54 but, having layed them at 1.899 (an annoyingly high price as they traded down to 1.75 the day after I was matched), I'm not yet concerned for my money. As I said before, they will play City at the weekend, with Spurs (3 points behind Arsenal) playing QPR at home. If both favourites win those games Spurs and Arsenal will be level on points once again and the top 4 merry-go-round will be truly underway once again. 

Relegation is an interesting market at the moment as we have two contenders odds on (Southampton and Reading), along with Norwich teetering on the edge at 2.1. The price ups are intriguing because if we look at the fixtures these three teams have had, it would appear to suggest that Norwich are the worse off out of the three. Reading have one point from three games, with one in hand, having drawn to Stoke and lost to Spurs and Chelsea, the last two being games they weren't likely to gain points from. Southampton are pointless and look to be struggling greatly, but when looking at their games, there is no real shame in being thrashed at the Emirates and losing 3-2 to United and City, leading in both games. Losing at home to Wigan was a disappointing result, but this is the only fixture to date which they have really stood a chance of gaining any points. Norwich on the other hand have had two home games to mediocre opposition, West Ham and QPR, and drew both of these. These are games which they would have been winning last year, and in my opinion they definitely look set to struggle this year. No goals so far (though I know it has only been four games) from Holt or Morison, two players who were relied upon last season, and although they managed to nab a good point away to the ailing Spurs, the 5-0 loss at Fulham highlighted the look of things to come. The problem they now face is that they now face Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal in succession, whereas Reading won't come up against a top 5 team until December, and Southampton's only big test is Spurs over the next couple of months. I expect Norwich to trade odds on for relegation before long, meaning the 2.1 is still pretty big. I backed them for relegation at 2.547 for £50, and might consider topping up on them soon. With my Reading bet, I jumped a bit too early and traded out at 2.3 after backing them at 2.6. After Spurs' poor start I was concerned that Reading were going to take at least a point yesterday, so I took a small profit after Reading's poor start had already driven the price down. It turned out to be the wrong decision but at least I took a small profit. The more I try out these different trades the more I will learn, and hopefully I will learn a lot on timing of trades over the season. 

In the top 10 market, my back of Fulham has had little movement so far, despite what I see as a very encouraging start from the Cottagers. Two good home wins see them sit in 8th place at the moment, yet there seems to be a large amount of resistance on their price. They remain at odds of 2.38 with the market preferring to side with Sunderland (2.06) at the moment. I haven't yet seen anything to blow me away from three-draws-Sunderland, who finished 13th last season, and Fulham's squad looks superior in my eyes. I may consider taking the best price I can get on a Fulham lay as the market might take a while to side with my opinion. We shall see.

Thank you again for your continued support, I hope you enjoy reading my blog as much as I enjoy writing it. 

The Plan

So I've given you my thoughts and previews on the upcoming season, but now it's time to say what I am personally planning to do for this year. As previously mentioned, I will be looking to the long term markets primarily this year, and will be using a bank of £500 to fund that. I will be trading in many different markets throughout the year when the opportunities present themselves, and for each I have set a target of 10% return on each investment. By May, I hope to have made 100% profit on my £500 investment, any more would be welcome of course! This is the first time I have ever tried anything like this before so it could go wrong of course, but I have high hopes for it and will keep you posted all the way. A season of transition if you like, think of me like Liverpool. I was going to start the season with my entire bank in play, but poor liquidity issues and concerns about start of season unpredictableness has meant that I have left £200 on the sideline. This will work out quite handy in the coming weeks however, as I am sure further opportunities will crop up fairly soon. For now, I have chosen to spray my money around a few options:

• Top ten finish: Fulham 
• Straight forecasts: both City/Utd, Utd/City
• Relegation: Stoke
• Relegation: Norwich
• Rock bottom: Norwich

I'll add a new bit on the side of my blog which lists all the bets I'm doing at any point in the season for clarity. In addition to this, after the success of my first proper season of trading, I will be doing week by week trading geared towards a target. It will be on a much smaller scale than I was doing last season, mainly because I don't have enough money to fund everything! But I will be working towards making £500 profit over the course of the season, which should cover my action in the long term markets should stuff go pete tong (hopefully not). So that's my plan for the season. Obviously £500 profit target over 38 weeks doesn't equate to much each week, which means my targets will be slow and small, something which suits me and allows for a smaller liability.

That's all for now. I won't be getting involved on a big scale today as there isn't any form to go on and no one knows what's going on. One thing is for sure though, I cannot wait. Here's to a great season, it's going to be BIG.

Good luck everyone.

Premier League 12/13 Preview: Winner's market

Hello there and welcome back. I have not blogged for a while as there has been no betting activity on my part, but mainly because I have been busy being caught up in the Olympic spirit. I watched the majority of the events and loved every second of it, but that being said I am now pleased it is over and normal service can resume. It was like a nice holiday, but you're always pleased to go back home. The post-appocolympics has left the nation riding on a crest of optimism, and football sadly seems to be the thing which is suffering in a number of ways. The debate on 'Olympians vs footballers' is utterly ridiculous, but we will soon see how the current darlings of the nation fare with cameras constantly shoved in their faces or up their skirts. I won't go on about it, we might be here all night. The more pressing issue is the lack of betting activity in the exchanges and bookies due to the Olympic and Euros distractions. I have no doubt that the love of football will resume once the big boys get going again this weekend, but for now it is a bit of a pain. Over a million has been matched on Betfair's PL winner market, but other markets have considerably less, particularly in markets such as PL relegation, where only £57,000 has been matched. The pointless markets in Scotland, as well as the odds on favourites of PSG, Juventus, Bayern and Real Madrid have not helped rouse excitement.

So anyway, this week I shall be doing a number of betting previews of the upcoming season, featuring the different markets of England's top league. I'll conclude with my own bets and trades for the coming season before Saturday's kick off. Today I'll be looking at the Premier League outright winner market. Enjoy.

Manchester City

Clearly counting the pennies now that the Fifa Fair Play rules are coming into motion, the defending champions have been one of the quietest teams this transfer window. Despite Mancini's complaining however, I wouldn't be too concerned if I was a City fan (and I certainly wouldn't trust Mancini's press conferences, after he brought a whole new dimension to the phrase 'mind games' last season). Despite only winning on goal difference last term, they will undoubtedly come back a stronger team, buoyed by their psychological breakthrough and confident they can repeat the feat. The only position in the squad which City really needed to strengthen was cover in defensive midfield, and the excellent acquisition of Jack Rodwell should provide sufficient assistance for De Jong, Barry and Yaya Toure, particularly with Toure likely to attend the African Cup of Nations in January. They could do with another centre back to cover for their outstanding leader, Kompany, but other than that their squad is by far the strongest in the league. The return of Tevez, barring further fall-outs, should bolster an already blistering attack and he looks set to get a fair few goals along the way. The 17 on him for top goalscorer looks large considering his records when he has played a full season, and that is probably because he is likely to play behind his equally prolific Argentine pal, Aguero. Aguero might just pip Tevez to the golden boot but Tevez is likely to bag a lot, especially as Aguero will probably be given the nod in Europe over him, so the 4.3 on him to come in the top four goalscorers looks very attractive.
Overall, City look strong, very strong. They will have no problem making the top 4 or 3, reflected in the prices 1.06 and 1.14 respectively, and will most likely challenge for the title the whole way, if not win it. They should have greater commitments in Europe this time, but they should have a big enough squad to cope with the demand. 2.3 for them to take the title offers little value, so it might be worth waiting for them to slip up instead before backing.

Manchester United

Another who hasn't strengthened a great deal this Summer, but having only missed out by a matter of goals last season, they look set to be in the thick of it once again. Unlike City, United do have weaknesses in places, particularly centre midfield and full back, but will benefit from a number of players returning from injury. Anderson, Cleverley and Fletcher all return for United in the middle of the park, whilst exciting new signing Kagawa will give Ferguson greater options in attack, and could even be used as the often missing playmaker behind the striker. The biggest plus for United however, is the return of their star centre back and captain Nemanja Vidic, whose absence last season proved the difference between 1st and 2nd. The return of their captain should sure up the defence and improve their European record from last time, but make no mistake about it: Ferguson will be putting all his efforts into taking his Premier League title back. The attacking options could still be boosted by the arrival of Robin Van Persie, which would give United a strike force to rival their neighbours. Again, the odds of 3.45 represent little value, particularly with a difficult start for Ferguson's men. If United trade any higher than this in the first half of the season however, it will definitely be worth taking as they will be in the mix by May. They have not finished outside of the top 3 in their Premier League history, and they will not be starting this season.

Chelsea

Chelsea are a gamble this year, and that is definitely reflected in their starting price (6.4). There are some that will see the big money signings of Hazard, Oscar and Marin as a sign that the European champions really mean business this year, while others will question the ability of a team who finished 6th last time around. The biggest concern for me is the striker area where Torres is their only recognised front man, and if he continues in the same form as last year the team could find themselves lacking goals. For the record, I think Torres will finally step up to the mark this year, especially having such creative talent around him, but having no real cover for him remains a worry. The loss of Drogba is big, though perhaps it will affect them more in cup competitions. Boylesports have gone 16/1 that Juan Mata records the most assists this year, and that looks huge to me. Mata, in his debut season in England, recorded the joint second most assists last year (with Antonio Valencia who is also a huge 18/1), and looks set to benefit further from Torres actually scoring this year. At very least it looks good for an each way punt. Elsewhere they still remain an aging team in places. Terry's performances dipped last season and if he continues in such a way it will be a big blow for the team reliant upon the leadership skills of their captain. Questions still surround the manager, though I personally like him a great deal, and a poor run could see the irrational Abramovic hand out another P45.
Due to their unpredictability, bettors are warned to take caution with the large price quoted for Chelsea. City were a similar price at the start of last season, and those who took that price look inspired come the end of the season, but I don't think it is quite as clear cut this year. I don't think it is likely that they will go from 6th to 1st, whether they are European Champions or not. This said, they should emerge decent contenders for a short while at least, and taking the 1.93 on Chelsea to win without the big 2 looks a lot better value.

The Rest

Let's get one thing straight, I am pretty sure that this year's winner will come from Manchester, but I am extremely sure that it will come from one of the above. So much so that I consider the 1.14 odds, achieved by dutching the three above, an extremely good investment. If I had more money to spend I would go for it, but being a student I am somewhat lacking in capital. Those with oodles of cash however might want to consider this proposition of 14% interest on a 10 month investment as they scramble around the banks comparing their measly 4% interest offers. I cannot see a way any club other than City, United or Chelsea will win the league, and the Premier League is so grueling that shocks are rarely produced at the very top, as only the very best squads will be named champions.

Arsenal were typically inconsistent last year, but have made some decent signings over the Summer. The loss of Van Persie however, which seems increasingly likely, will be an enormous blow as he carried them to third place last time out. It will leave new signing Giroud as their main front man, and he is so far untested in the Arsenal red. Should they lose Song as well, it will effectively be game over for them in my eyes, as I rate him as one of the best midfielders in the league. Tottenham look weaker than last year, especially if they lose Modric, and there is still a degree of uncertainty over their manager's ability in England. The signings they have made are decent enough, but they desperately need a striker and even then will struggle to make the top three. Liverpool will be stronger and better drilled than last year, but they have no hope in hell of winning the title this year.

Next up I will review the Top 4 markets. Enjoy your night.

Back to business shortly...

It should now be only a short time until I am back in business in the betting world. And to be quite honest, I have missed it. Although it has been only a couple of weeks since my last proper bets, I still find myself regularly checking Betfair for the latest odds of the different matches playing at the time and constantly finding bets I could be betting on. The Djokovic outright bet (obviously) paid off, with him crucifying Rafa in the final to continue the outrageous run which he has been on this season. I traded off my liabilities at a slightly disappointing 2.22 (mainly due to the Big 4 all reaching the semi-finals), but I was soon glad of anything as he went down 2 sets in the semis to Fedz. Luckily he scraped through and I adjusted the bank to 70:30 in Djokovic's favour for the final, meaning a decent profit of around £85. This has been quite a good demonstration of the opportunities that lie in the Grand Slam events of the tennis world I feel, and I will certainly look into it further next season, possibly with bigger sums.

Returning to University for me will begin a new betting season and I have decided to step up my activities somewhat. I will spend the next couple of weeks finalising plans but by the end of September I hope to be trialling and reviewing at least 2 other betting systems, in addition to the ASP system I am already running. On top of this I will be providing weekly tips for anyone interested in that aspect of betting. I have also decided to set myself targets each week, for instance I will be looking to make £X per week (I am yet to decide the amount). I will look to set a weekly loss limit, which, if reached, will mean the end of my betting for that week. If I am to reach my weekly profit target four times in a row (all of these figures are examples, I'm not sure of the actual numbers yet) then I will increase my target by around 10%. If I am consistently successful, I will be banking the majority of my profits (around 90%) and leaving 10% in to increase the bank size. All of this will commence when I receive a new betting bank, A.K.A. My Student Loan. I think that this more organised form of betting will help to improve my discipline and bring in steady profits, as well as reduce any potential losses. As I am not trying to sell you anything I have the luxury of being completely honest throughout the season, and will be posting regular P+L sheets, as well of the majority of the things I will bet on, so feel free to follow my progress throughout the year. I intend to reach the target by any means possible, i.e. systems, punting, trading, scalping etc.

Until then though, I hope you have a profitable couple of weeks. Below I have a few screenshots of the season bets I recommended in earlier posts. Thanks to the start from the two Manchester clubs, as well as the disasters down in London, I have been able to trade out and withdraw my money to top up my holiday bank. The Best of the Rest bet I will probably leave all season, as I really believe City will finish above all of those listed (maybe I will put a small amount on the others if the odds get down to 1.05 or something). I only wish I had had more capital at the time of putting the bet on, as I would have put the earth on it. The other bet is less certain but for now I'm happy to leave it as it is as my total risk is £0, just how we like it.