I read an interesting article earlier over on The Sultan's blog, where he wrote about different people's approaches to trading sports professionally. I think it is an intriguing topic and I'd just like to add my thoughts. The post can be found here incidentally: http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/sacrificing-social-life.html
In short, Sultan was describing how he has had to make sacrifices in his life in order to work as a professional trader, and that without these sacrifices one cannot hope to be successful in their work. I largely agree with what he was saying and I find it strange that anyone would be deluded enough to think anything different from this. I have read posts or comments by some people who seem to fail to realise that if you decide to trade professionally, then this is actually a JOB, no longer a pastime. Undeniably, the make up of this particular job is vastly different from the 'typical' work environment, but the fundamental basics should still remain the same. Sultan refers to one guy who claimed he was going to trade on his phone whilst at a party. Erm, sorry, what? How many people do you know who go to a party and do work? And if these parties do exist, then these people really need new friends. Whilst trading may be a different type of job from something in an office, or a job at Tesco, or a binman, it doesn't mean that it deserves any less respect, and if you want to succeed at it that is how it needs to be. The higher up the professional scale you get the more sacrifices are needed, I doubt bank managers and top editors have much time for partying, for example. Another thing is that betting on a mobile is dangerous. I lose more bets than I win when I bet on my phone, mainly because the correct mindset is not there, while it is too easy to just stick something on and become distracted.
'Picard007' commented on the post saying: 'I must admit that I had this imagination of, if I invest 10 hours a day for 3 months I will be in profit soon. My hard work will pay off. It was a complete shock, that it did not and actually cost me a lot of money.' This slightly naive thinking (though who hasn't been the subject naivety over time?), is a belief which I feel contradicts my thoughts on trading professionally. If someone truly wants to go into trading, then they need to WANT to, and success will only happen over time, you cannot force it. It isn't a regular job, and it takes dedication to reach the level of The Sultan, for instance. It is easy to read his blog or other P+L blogs and think that it looks easy and fun, but the truth is that that is unrealistic. I spend a lot of time observing the markets and researching stats, whilst watching a lot of games and reading betting articles, but I am still far from the point needed to go professional and turn a consistent profit big enough to sustain any form of a lifestyle. There is a difference of course. I do it because I enjoy it with no real ambition to ever go full-time. But I think the fundamentals are the same, mainly because I aim to make money. Another point is that one cannot expect to learn all he needs to learn in 3 months, it simply isn't enough time to gain enough experience, just like anything else. One of the biggest things which has helped me improve over time is making mistakes, and I think that they are crucial to becoming successful in the long run. Everyone makes mistakes over time, and as long as you learn from them they can be as rewarding as any profit achieved. I look back over my mistakes over the past year or two and laugh, but I know that these were necessary to my education, and rarely have I made the same mistake again.
Another key point which was touched upon in Picard's comment was, profit aside, the benefits which trading brings to a person, most of all: discipline. I agree with Sultan and Picard who both agreed that discipline was a key aspect of their life which had been improved thanks to trading, and I feel the same way. My control of money is a lot stricter these days, both in and out of Betfair, and I value the odd pound or two a lot more also. My maths and statistical skills have improved, though both are still at a basic level, and I always find myself surprised at how often people talk of 'the odds' or bets, at which point I normally burst in with my superior knowledge (ahem) of the markets.
Each trader is different and I appreciate that. Personally, I trade part time to supplement my student income, and I choose trading over a part time job because I get pleasure from it, not necessarily because the profits are greater. It also suits me to trade whenever I feel like it, something which would not happen if I was to take the big step up to professionalism. I cannot see myself ever going professional as I don't think it is the life for me necessarily, but I am looking to go into the betting industry in some way and I think the knowledge I have accrued over time would give me an advantage in the marketing sector, for instance. (Incidentally, if anyone is reading and would like to give a newly graduated guy a job around June-time, that would be very handy ; ) ) Joking aside, whatever sector I enter I can see myself trading on the side in the future, just because I enjoy it.
Last word from me now. If you are going to trade then the most crucial thing is the 'Big P' - not profit, but passion. If you have enough passion then the other P will come.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Monday, 17 September 2012
10,000 Not Out
Today I passed the 10,000 hit mark on my blog and would like to take a minute to thank everyone who has read, promoted or mentioned my blog over the last year and a bit. I would probably still write the blog even if only 10 people had read it, so to have a fair amount of hits is a huge bonus to me. I see the blog as a good way of ordering my thoughts, as well as keeping a good record of my fads and profits over time, and I will endeavour to keep blogging throughout this year. Thank you all.
The league is finally beginning to take shape now and I always find it strange that after as little as four games the league generally tends to have ordered the top end of the table fairly accurately, in relation to how they will finish in May. After a slow start, Arsenal have settled down and have powered themselves into the top 4, causing punters to slash their price both in the top 4 market and the winners market. Having been matched at a high of 28, Arsenal are now as low as 12 on Betfair to win the title for the first time since 2004. As far as I am concerned, anyone backing Arsenal at that price (or any price at all for that matter) is absolutely mental. They beat the worst team in the league 6-1 and recorded a good victory at Anfield, albeit a poor Liverpool team, but I would not even consider them for the title, particularly not at this early stage. They face Man City and Chelsea in the next couple of weeks and I think we could see a knock back to reality for the Arsenal contingent. Their top 4 price is now at 1.54 but, having layed them at 1.899 (an annoyingly high price as they traded down to 1.75 the day after I was matched), I'm not yet concerned for my money. As I said before, they will play City at the weekend, with Spurs (3 points behind Arsenal) playing QPR at home. If both favourites win those games Spurs and Arsenal will be level on points once again and the top 4 merry-go-round will be truly underway once again.
Relegation is an interesting market at the moment as we have two contenders odds on (Southampton and Reading), along with Norwich teetering on the edge at 2.1. The price ups are intriguing because if we look at the fixtures these three teams have had, it would appear to suggest that Norwich are the worse off out of the three. Reading have one point from three games, with one in hand, having drawn to Stoke and lost to Spurs and Chelsea, the last two being games they weren't likely to gain points from. Southampton are pointless and look to be struggling greatly, but when looking at their games, there is no real shame in being thrashed at the Emirates and losing 3-2 to United and City, leading in both games. Losing at home to Wigan was a disappointing result, but this is the only fixture to date which they have really stood a chance of gaining any points. Norwich on the other hand have had two home games to mediocre opposition, West Ham and QPR, and drew both of these. These are games which they would have been winning last year, and in my opinion they definitely look set to struggle this year. No goals so far (though I know it has only been four games) from Holt or Morison, two players who were relied upon last season, and although they managed to nab a good point away to the ailing Spurs, the 5-0 loss at Fulham highlighted the look of things to come. The problem they now face is that they now face Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal in succession, whereas Reading won't come up against a top 5 team until December, and Southampton's only big test is Spurs over the next couple of months. I expect Norwich to trade odds on for relegation before long, meaning the 2.1 is still pretty big. I backed them for relegation at 2.547 for £50, and might consider topping up on them soon. With my Reading bet, I jumped a bit too early and traded out at 2.3 after backing them at 2.6. After Spurs' poor start I was concerned that Reading were going to take at least a point yesterday, so I took a small profit after Reading's poor start had already driven the price down. It turned out to be the wrong decision but at least I took a small profit. The more I try out these different trades the more I will learn, and hopefully I will learn a lot on timing of trades over the season.
In the top 10 market, my back of Fulham has had little movement so far, despite what I see as a very encouraging start from the Cottagers. Two good home wins see them sit in 8th place at the moment, yet there seems to be a large amount of resistance on their price. They remain at odds of 2.38 with the market preferring to side with Sunderland (2.06) at the moment. I haven't yet seen anything to blow me away from three-draws-Sunderland, who finished 13th last season, and Fulham's squad looks superior in my eyes. I may consider taking the best price I can get on a Fulham lay as the market might take a while to side with my opinion. We shall see.
Thank you again for your continued support, I hope you enjoy reading my blog as much as I enjoy writing it.
Thursday, 13 September 2012
Trading is easy...
...when the favourite goes behind. It is probably one of the oldest and most simple techniques in trading, but it has been working out for me, and I'm sure quite a few others too, in the opening weeks. I mentioned before the start of the season that I expected goals and shaky defences to be a theme of the coming season and it hasn't disappointed yet. The Champions have recorded wins of 3-2 and 3-1, along with a 2-2 draw and a 3-2 in the Community Shield, while their neighbours have followed suit with two 3-2 wins in a row. As I said before, the mid table teams have strengthened well and the big teams are going to struggle to win every match, particularly away from home. For now trading the overs looks the way to go.
My trading has been slow but steady in the opening weeks. I haven't had a wealth of time and the size of my bank (£50) has restricted me to small stakes. I also like to assess the new season and get a feel for each team before I go charging in anyway, so it has been working just fine for me. So far I have taken a small but positive £19.61 profit. Bank building is one of the things I am best at, in my humble opinion, so taking small but steady profits is something I quite like to do. I am going back to university next weekend, and that is normally where my proper trading takes hold, so I look forward to that. This weekend my opportunities will be limited as I am off to Old Trafford on Saturday.
For now though just sit back and relax, and thank the Lord that the international bore-fest is over.
My trading has been slow but steady in the opening weeks. I haven't had a wealth of time and the size of my bank (£50) has restricted me to small stakes. I also like to assess the new season and get a feel for each team before I go charging in anyway, so it has been working just fine for me. So far I have taken a small but positive £19.61 profit. Bank building is one of the things I am best at, in my humble opinion, so taking small but steady profits is something I quite like to do. I am going back to university next weekend, and that is normally where my proper trading takes hold, so I look forward to that. This weekend my opportunities will be limited as I am off to Old Trafford on Saturday.
For now though just sit back and relax, and thank the Lord that the international bore-fest is over.
Saturday, 1 September 2012
The calm after the storm
From a betting point of view, the transfer window shutting two weeks after the season has kicked off is not desirable for any ante post bets. Teams can change drastically and yesterday was no exception to this, with over £100m being spent on deadline day. Key changes were made to the likes of Fulham, Tottenham, QPR and Manchester City among others, and this has thrown a whole new set of spanners in the works.
In terms of my positions for the new season, not too much has changed. I was very pleased to see that Arsenal didn't do any late deals and I think they are going to struggle a great deal, particularly in the coming weeks. I was a great admirer of Song and I think that not replacing him will come back to bite them, particularly with their injury situations. Cazorla is a superb addition, but a completely different type of player. Their lack of transfer activity has seen them drift out to evens for a top 4 finish, after being 1.7 last week.
In the week, I added Spurs to my list of bets, taking a large position on them to finish in the top 6 at odds of 1.74. I had hoped for bigger signings than they managed yesterday, but with an easy next few weeks, they should do well enough for me to trade out for a profit. In the long run, I can't see Spurs blowing anyone away, their squad is poor and definitely not an improvement on last season. They have only two strikers available up top, and both of those are hit and miss. Competition for fourth spot is going to be tough, but only because each team is now equally poor. Liverpool failed to bring in any big names and after letting Carroll go, and suffering another Lucas injury, I fear they too will fail to flatter.
It looks to me as if Everton have been the biggest winners over the last few weeks, recording 2 emphatic victories as well as signing a wealth of players, something which their failure to do in recent years has been their downfall. I will admit to not knowing a great deal about their new acquisitions, but David Moyes is shrewd and if they are as much of a success as most of his other signings, Everton could look dangerous for fourth place. Currently at odds of 6 if you fancy that.
My only real concern is the dealings at Fulham and what that will do for my top 10 bet. They smashed Norwich on the opening day, and made a real fight for it at Old Trafford, but the losses of Dempsey and particularly Dembele will hit them hard. They secured a real coup in getting Berbatov, and I really think he will do well with them, but it is in the middle of the park where they will be overrun. Murphy left earlier in the summer, meaning that they have now lost their 3 most crucial midfielders from last season. Richardson and Dejagah have also been brought in, but they are both wingers and I feel Martin Jol would have been much better focusing on the heart of their team. I still think that they have a good squad, but I will be keeping a close eye in the next few weeks.
Good luck this weekend.
In terms of my positions for the new season, not too much has changed. I was very pleased to see that Arsenal didn't do any late deals and I think they are going to struggle a great deal, particularly in the coming weeks. I was a great admirer of Song and I think that not replacing him will come back to bite them, particularly with their injury situations. Cazorla is a superb addition, but a completely different type of player. Their lack of transfer activity has seen them drift out to evens for a top 4 finish, after being 1.7 last week.
In the week, I added Spurs to my list of bets, taking a large position on them to finish in the top 6 at odds of 1.74. I had hoped for bigger signings than they managed yesterday, but with an easy next few weeks, they should do well enough for me to trade out for a profit. In the long run, I can't see Spurs blowing anyone away, their squad is poor and definitely not an improvement on last season. They have only two strikers available up top, and both of those are hit and miss. Competition for fourth spot is going to be tough, but only because each team is now equally poor. Liverpool failed to bring in any big names and after letting Carroll go, and suffering another Lucas injury, I fear they too will fail to flatter.
It looks to me as if Everton have been the biggest winners over the last few weeks, recording 2 emphatic victories as well as signing a wealth of players, something which their failure to do in recent years has been their downfall. I will admit to not knowing a great deal about their new acquisitions, but David Moyes is shrewd and if they are as much of a success as most of his other signings, Everton could look dangerous for fourth place. Currently at odds of 6 if you fancy that.
My only real concern is the dealings at Fulham and what that will do for my top 10 bet. They smashed Norwich on the opening day, and made a real fight for it at Old Trafford, but the losses of Dempsey and particularly Dembele will hit them hard. They secured a real coup in getting Berbatov, and I really think he will do well with them, but it is in the middle of the park where they will be overrun. Murphy left earlier in the summer, meaning that they have now lost their 3 most crucial midfielders from last season. Richardson and Dejagah have also been brought in, but they are both wingers and I feel Martin Jol would have been much better focusing on the heart of their team. I still think that they have a good squad, but I will be keeping a close eye in the next few weeks.
Good luck this weekend.
Tuesday, 21 August 2012
Movement in the markets
The opening weekend lived up to its billing and provided us with a number of interesting results, causing certain markets to yo-yo. The outright winners market saw City drift to around 2.5 after their unconvincing 3-2 victory against Southampton, before slamming back down to 2.3 after United followed up with a 1-0 loss at Everton. This caused Everton's top 6 price to plummet to odds of 3, while backing them for the top 4 can still be seized at 9.2. I spoke about their potential in my last post and, having seen off United and seemingly dispelled their start of season demons, many will be hoping that they can continue in such a form. Questions remain about their squad, but they have strengthened wisely and have a relatively generous run of games approaching, which could see them in a good position come Christmas.
Elsewhere, the biggest victors were Swansea and Fulham. I must say I anticipated the Fulham result but, like nearly everyone else, never saw Swansea's result coming. I had read up on Michu and was interested to see if he could continue where he left off in Spain, and based on Saturday, it certainly seems like he is going to prove another bargain buy for the Swans. Swansea's relegation price leaped from around 2.8 to 4, while Fulham shortened for a top 10 finish from 2.5 to evens. Recipients of 5-0 thrashings QPR and Norwich showed us that it might be a tough season for last seasons new boys, and their prices for relegation dropped to 4.8 (from 7.8) and 2.16 (from 2.6) respectively. While this was quite an emphatic start from a number of teams, I cannot help but consider the movements in each market a slight overreaction after one match. I guess it is because previously punters had nothing to base their opinions on, so now the market is just reforming in the shape of the first round of fixtures. Expect all to change very soon however.
The weekend was a good one for me, and the majority of my bets got off to a flyer. As previously stated, I had Norwich for relegation and Fulham for top 10, placing my eggs in one basket some might say, but it paid off. Norwich have a tough set of games (after this weekend) so I will be hanging on with that trade for a bit. The price I got on Fulham (2.62) I consider far too high, so I will be sticking with that one too for a while. The only bet which didn't quite go to plan was Stoke to be relegated, and they saw a slight drift to 7.8 after their draw with Reading. It wasn't a disaster, but I have decided to reduce my liability on that one after reassessing their coming fixtures. The United/City straight forecasts remain around the same odds, the market knows United won't continue how they began, and that is how I view the situation too. No panic with that one. In addition to my current bets, I have placed a large lay bet on Arsenal to finish in the top 4, with a view to their upcoming fixtures and the fact that Spurs have a very easy set of fixtures, and have finally signed the striker I wanted them too. It is a risky bet with Arsenal possibly not finished in the transfer market, but even so I feel that they will struggle in the next few months. Furthermore, I have added Reading to my relegation list.
In normal trading I took a tiny £5.56 profit (which you can see in my all new P&L on the side), but I was just happy to take any profit in a weekend where I kept my stakes low. As weeks go on I will increase my trading but only once I have a better feel for the new season.
Olympics? What Olympics?
Elsewhere, the biggest victors were Swansea and Fulham. I must say I anticipated the Fulham result but, like nearly everyone else, never saw Swansea's result coming. I had read up on Michu and was interested to see if he could continue where he left off in Spain, and based on Saturday, it certainly seems like he is going to prove another bargain buy for the Swans. Swansea's relegation price leaped from around 2.8 to 4, while Fulham shortened for a top 10 finish from 2.5 to evens. Recipients of 5-0 thrashings QPR and Norwich showed us that it might be a tough season for last seasons new boys, and their prices for relegation dropped to 4.8 (from 7.8) and 2.16 (from 2.6) respectively. While this was quite an emphatic start from a number of teams, I cannot help but consider the movements in each market a slight overreaction after one match. I guess it is because previously punters had nothing to base their opinions on, so now the market is just reforming in the shape of the first round of fixtures. Expect all to change very soon however.
The weekend was a good one for me, and the majority of my bets got off to a flyer. As previously stated, I had Norwich for relegation and Fulham for top 10, placing my eggs in one basket some might say, but it paid off. Norwich have a tough set of games (after this weekend) so I will be hanging on with that trade for a bit. The price I got on Fulham (2.62) I consider far too high, so I will be sticking with that one too for a while. The only bet which didn't quite go to plan was Stoke to be relegated, and they saw a slight drift to 7.8 after their draw with Reading. It wasn't a disaster, but I have decided to reduce my liability on that one after reassessing their coming fixtures. The United/City straight forecasts remain around the same odds, the market knows United won't continue how they began, and that is how I view the situation too. No panic with that one. In addition to my current bets, I have placed a large lay bet on Arsenal to finish in the top 4, with a view to their upcoming fixtures and the fact that Spurs have a very easy set of fixtures, and have finally signed the striker I wanted them too. It is a risky bet with Arsenal possibly not finished in the transfer market, but even so I feel that they will struggle in the next few months. Furthermore, I have added Reading to my relegation list.
In normal trading I took a tiny £5.56 profit (which you can see in my all new P&L on the side), but I was just happy to take any profit in a weekend where I kept my stakes low. As weeks go on I will increase my trading but only once I have a better feel for the new season.
Olympics? What Olympics?
Sunday, 19 August 2012
Everton slow starters: Myth or Truth?
Everton are famed for their slow starts, particularly in recent years, but I have always been unsure as to how drastic these slow starts actually are. The footballing world is quick to hand out labels to teams or players, so I was interested to investigate just how justified this particular accusation was. The results were laughably resounding however, and it would appear completely justified that they have been labelled thus. The graphs below demonstrate the proceedings from the last 4 seasons, clearing showing a chaotic run up until Christmas when things seem to settle down. I particularly enjoyed the part (around the same time each season) when David Moyes must have decided that they were going to try and actually maintain a position, and they horizontal lined to the finish.
In spite of this overwhelming evidence however, experts are more hopeful than ever that Everton may be able to get off to a roaring start, after one of the most productive transfer windows in their recent history, (purchase-wise that is). Having only lost the aging Cahill and youngster Rodwell so far, bringing in much-needed reinforcements in the process, Moyes' men do certainly look to be able to push the top 6 or 7 from an early stage. They don't have the easiest of starts at home to Manchester United, but after that they have a more favourable run, facing only Liverpool and Newcastle (both at home) from the top 8 clubs until late November. They are currently 4.2 for a top 6 finish and 14 for a top 4 finish on Betfair, but don't be surprised to see those prices fall between here and Christmas. This is probably a (potentially lucrative) bet for the more daring folk however, as the stats below speak for themselves.
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
Saturday, 18 August 2012
The Plan
So I've given you my thoughts and previews on the upcoming season, but now it's time to say what I am personally planning to do for this year. As previously mentioned, I will be looking to the long term markets primarily this year, and will be using a bank of £500 to fund that. I will be trading in many different markets throughout the year when the opportunities present themselves, and for each I have set a target of 10% return on each investment. By May, I hope to have made 100% profit on my £500 investment, any more would be welcome of course! This is the first time I have ever tried anything like this before so it could go wrong of course, but I have high hopes for it and will keep you posted all the way. A season of transition if you like, think of me like Liverpool. I was going to start the season with my entire bank in play, but poor liquidity issues and concerns about start of season unpredictableness has meant that I have left £200 on the sideline. This will work out quite handy in the coming weeks however, as I am sure further opportunities will crop up fairly soon. For now, I have chosen to spray my money around a few options:
- Top ten finish: Fulham
- Straight forecasts: both City/Utd, Utd/City
- Relegation: Stoke
- Relegation: Norwich
- Rock bottom: Norwich
I'll add a new bit on the side of my blog which lists all the bets I'm doing at any point in the season for clarity. In addition to this, after the success of my first proper season of trading, I will be doing week by week trading geared towards a target. It will be on a much smaller scale than I was doing last season, mainly because I don't have enough money to fund everything! But I will be working towards making £500 profit over the course of the season, which should cover my action in the long term markets should stuff go pete tong (hopefully not). So that's my plan for the season. Obviously £500 profit target over 38 weeks doesn't equate to much each week, which means my targets will be slow and small, something which suits me and allows for a smaller liability.
That's all for now. I won't be getting involved on a big scale today as there isn't any form to go on and no one knows what's going on. One thing is for sure though, I cannot wait. Here's to a great season, it's going to be BIG.
Good luck everyone.
Friday, 17 August 2012
Top 10 and Relegation review
I was going to do a post on the top 10 market, and then
another on the relegation market, but I appear to be running out of time before
the big kick off! Luckily, the guys at Sports Trading Life have covered the
relegation markets, and their analysis pretty much resembles my thoughts. You
can read their post here to save me a job:
There are however, some bits which I'd like to add my thoughts to, as
well as a couple of mid-table battles I’d like to mention. So, here goes.
The Top 10 market:
Fulham
This is a team which I feel really has the potential to push
on and cement their place in the top 10 teams, particularly after making smart
signings over the summer. They finished in 9th place last season
(joint with Liverpool in 8th, and 5 points clear of 10th)
and Martin Jol really looks like he is getting a hold of the Cottagers now,
bringing in the exciting Petric and Rodallega which is sure to provide a necessary
boost to the Fulham attack. They have, so far, been able to hold together the core
of their team, though I wonder if they can hold on for Dempsey for too much
longer. Even without him though I think they should be able to make their way
into the top ten quite comfortably, with the impressive Dembele, Ruiz and
Diarra forming the heart of their midfield. My only worry is the loss of Murphy
and how much that will affect them. Although he was aging, he still made 33
appearances last year and undoubtedly provided a calm experienced head in the
middle of the park. The team has enough to step up to the plate though, and
should Dempsey leave we could see another signing before the end of the window.
The defence which kept 11 clean sheets last season remains the same, with the
addition of right back Reither on loan. As with the top 4 market, expect much
chopping and changing. But for now, 2.62 on Fulham to finish in the top 10
looks like a steal. Especially when you consider that since 08/09 they have
finished 7th, 12th, 8th, 9th. Those
bolder might fancy taking on them for the top six at 12 for a back to lay
option, but my concern would be the better teams could push away from the
middle pack early doors. If we look at the graph of Fulham’s positions last
year, we can see that although the general trend is upwards, the middle of the
table is so tight that any run of losses will drop you down a number of places.
Sunderland
On the other side of things we have Sunderland, who look
like a struggling team to me. They came 13th last season and
appeared to be slipping back into their frail ways toward the end of the
season, despite the burst around New Year after the appointment of Martin O’Neil.
They have failed to really strengthen during the summer, and up until last week
had only swapped centre back Turner for Carlos Cuellar. This week has seen a
flurry, and a desperate looking one at that, of transfers, bringing in Steven
Fletcher for silly money and the hapless Louis Saha earlier today. Fletcher is
a good striker and proven finisher, but will only really fill the big hole
which Bendtner left when he returned to Arsenal. Saha is another good striker,
but only when he is fit, which he rarely is, sadly. He has only managed over 25
appearances once in the last 10 seasons, and I seriously question his ability
to carry the Sunderland front line.
Depressed Sunderland fan and Betfair blogger Jonathan Wilson
has been lamenting the Mackem squad this week, which I was (a tiny bit) annoyed
about because his (apparently large) influence has caused a drift on the
Sunderland price for top 10, as well as shortening for relegation. I don’t
think they will be in the relegation mix, as he tipped, mainly due to the quality
of players such as Sessegnon and Larsson, but I cannot see them finishing in
the top 10. The competition is too high this year and there is no room for
Sunderland. If they buy a few more players in the next few weeks I may
reconsider, but for now, 2.26 for the lay of top 10 looks great to me.
Reading
Reading are currently second favourites for the drop, but I will be surprised if they remain at their current price for long. They were the best team in the Championship last season after a remarkable second half of the season, and have strengthened considerably in a bit to cement their place in the top flight. Pogrebnyak is an excellent signing for free, after we all saw his potential at Fulham last year. Elsewhere they have brought in some experienced and talented faces, and I think there are quite a few teams worse than them this time round. They can be layed for the drop at 2.52, and backed at 7.2 for a back to lay trade if you are feeling more confident. They don’t have the easiest of starts however, so waiting a couple of months for their price to rise might get you better value.
Norwich
These are my biggest tip for relegation this year. They surprised everyone last year by having an exceptional season and producing performances a lot higher than the quality of their squad, but I cannot see them keeping that up this year. They have lost their very influential manager and replaced him with Chris Hughton. I have nothing against Hughton but I question his ability to keep a very average squad in the Premier League, especially so soon after Lambert's departure. Last year, they relied on Holt and Morison for goals, two strikers who ordinarily would not have provided such a tally, but were riding on adrenaline which I would be surprised if they kept up this year. I think it is telling that Holt was not picked for the England squad, I for one was not wishing for him to play for us vs the likes of Italy or France. Not that I hate the guy by the way, I like him and hope he does well this season, but I just think last year was a small fluke. But anyway, they haven't strengthened quite as much as I think they need to - Turner is a good buy and much needed as their defence was awful last year.
Towards the end of last year they began to lose their form and I expect them to continue that into the new season. And baring in mind their tough start (Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal) in the first couple of months, 2.58 for the drop looks tasty. You might even want to take a bit of the 6.8 for rock bottom.
And finally...
Just a word on Stoke. I'm not sure what to think about Stoke. I've heard quite a few people now say that they think Stoke might struggle in the league this year, and I think there's a chance they might be right. I think they have too much firepower (and too good a home crowd) to actually go down, but I think they will struggle. The graph for last season shows how their results waned towards the end, and I think maybe their small squad is being found out. The biggest thing though is that their start consists of playing Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United before the end of October, so backing them for relegation at 6.6 with a view to laying it off looks good.
Wednesday, 15 August 2012
The Top 4
The top four poses an exciting dilemma this season, as the uncertainty of last term looks set to continue. By my reckoning, the top two spots should be filled by the Manchester boys, leaving only two places up for grabs. As I mentioned yesterday, Chelsea look stronger this year and look a good bet for 3rd place and currently sit at 1.79 to finish in the top 3. However they did finish in 6th place last year, and determination to defend their European crown may cause domestic aims to be ignored just like last time, meaning that anything could happen in there. But this really only leaves room for one other team from either Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle to take the holy grail that is a place in Europe's top competition. Other teams could be in the mix, Newcastle surprised us all last year, but with such competition this year, it is unlikely any other team will be able to mount a serious challenge. Incidentally, if you fancy the Manchester clubs to dominate up top, they're available on the straight forecast at 3.9 (City/United) and 5.5 (United/City), both of which are likely to trade lower throughout the season, therefore representing good value.
Arsenal
For the first time in a while the Gunners have experienced a respectable amount of Summer investment, and will look to push on from the 3rd place they scraped last season. We might have to wait until the end of August before seeing what Arsenal's squad looks like however, as the Van Persie saga draws on and rumours about Song's sale are escalating. Despite the excellent signing of Santi Cazorla, and the still-to-be-tested signings of Podolski and Giroud, Van Persie's departure will leave Arsenal very thin on the ground at the top. One of their main downfalls last season was their reliance upon their captain, as the woeful Chamakh was the next best thing for them. Losing 30-goal Van Persie will be a huge loss and with Podolski and Cazorla preferring to play on the wings, it leaves only the untested Giroud as a recognised striker of any quality. Should Song depart as well, they will be in real trouble, having been Arsenal's second best player last season. Injuries will need to be kind to the team, particularly at the back where the squad is its most bare, but with Wilshere, Walcott and Oxlaide-Chamberlain all currently ruled out, it appears to have continued with a familiar trend.
Overall, I expect Arsenal to be one of the leading teams in the hunt for fourth spot, but 1.68 represents little value at the moment. I am confident that that price will trade a lot higher during the campaign as teams in and around that spot tend to be pretty inconsistent. For now though, a lay of Arsenal to finish in the top 3 looks good at 2.9.
Tottenham
Spurs flirted with the title for a while last season before stumbling to a 4th place finish, which unusually put them into the Europa League only. Villas Boas has stepped in and the market doesn't seem to know quite what to think about this, with a fair degree of uncertainty surrounding the man who was sacked from Chelsea in less than a year. It is my opinion though, that he will be a lot more effective in a club which he has full control over, and we have seen his true potential from his time at Porto. He will bring stability to the team and his attacking style should suit Spurs who have an abundance of attacking talent. That being said, the loss of Luka Modric will come as a huge blow (should it happen), and he will need to be properly replaced if Spurs are going to truly challenge for the top 4. Sigurdsson is a good buy and should do well, but he is not in the same league as Modric, and I expect Levy to go shopping before September 1st. They are also desperately missing a striker and, should they end up with only Defoe, their attacking threat will be significantly reduced and I would question their ability to challenge the top 4 at all.
They do, however, still possess a strong base to the team, and the signing of Vertonghen will provide stability to the back 4. Having hung on to Bale and Van Der Vaart, their starting 11 would still be one of the most powerful in the league if they were able to bring in a classy striker. They also have the advantage of not being in the Champions League, unlike Chelsea and Arsenal, so may benefit from having a fitter squad towards the end of the season (it is unlikely they will go all out in the Europa League). Overall, it is a waiting game with Spurs, as their transfer activity looks far from done. They are currently odds of 3 to finish top 4 which looks big, but should they bring in some big players, expect that price to tumble.
Newcastle
It will be almost like second-season-syndrome for Newcastle after their remarkable climb to 5th place last sesason. So far they have only spent £1million on new faces after a pretty expensive January presumably used up a lot of their funds. In terms of a starting 11, Newcastle's team is strong in most areas, and the likes of Coloccini and Cabaye would walk into United or Chelsea's team. In terms of their squad however, they haven't strengthened when others around them have, and they will struggle with the extra burden of Europe to contend with. Realistically, the top 4 looks out of their reach and the market seems to have realised that with their odds at 15. Although they are big odds I would be wary about taking them on for a trade as I'm unsure if they will be able to continue their form from last season. The top 6 looks like a more realistic target and the odds of 4 look very appealing for a back to lay trade.
Liverpool
There are some who think they will be in the mix at the top, and others who think that they will fall behind Everton yet again. I buy neither. They will be better drilled and play a lot nicer football, but ultimately their squad is not good enough to find its way into the top 4. Even with the apparent addition of Nuri Sahin on loan (apparently it will be announced tomorrow), I still don't think that their squad has the strength and depth. Not yet, anyway. I believe in Rodgers as a manager and he has a decent core in the Liverpool squad, but it will take time and I can't see it working immediately. Their attacking options look particularly bare, with the Suarez the only goalscoring striker available. Coral go 11/8 that he will be their top scorer, and that looks like a price worth taking. Despite missing as many as he could manage last season and only netting 11 league goals, the closest to him was Bellamy on 6 goals, and he is meant to be leaving this summer. Another thing is that Rodger's side is unlikely to be blessed with goals. Swansea saw the least amount of games where both teams score (14/38), and Anfield saw the least amount of goals of all the stadia in England. Put simply: Liverpool's boring style is set to get even more boring, so backing under 2.5 goals in most games looks a good shout, though I doubt you'll get much value. Lucas returning for the Reds is a huge bonus as he really started to show promising form before his injury, but it will only help to bolster an already pretty sturdy defence and I think attack will be their main problem throughout. 3.35 looks a good price to lay Liverpool at for the top 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if it traded a lot higher than that very soon.
Overall
The teams in the mix for the top 4 will chop and change drastically throughout the season, as each of these teams have proved themselves to be unreliable and inconsistent. None of them have a big enough squad to maintain form for the whole year, particularly with cup competitions and Europe to deal with also, so there will definitely be a big opening for some trading throughout. If anyone takes an early lead in the table I would advise laying them quickly.
On a side note, I have just heard the news about Van Persie to United. So that leaves us with Van Persie, Rooney, Kagawa and Valencia vs Aguero, Tevez, Silva and Yaya vs Torres, Hazard, Mata and Oscar. Wow. We are in for a treat. From the top 7, only Spurs have strengthened their defence, so we may see some goals...
Arsenal
For the first time in a while the Gunners have experienced a respectable amount of Summer investment, and will look to push on from the 3rd place they scraped last season. We might have to wait until the end of August before seeing what Arsenal's squad looks like however, as the Van Persie saga draws on and rumours about Song's sale are escalating. Despite the excellent signing of Santi Cazorla, and the still-to-be-tested signings of Podolski and Giroud, Van Persie's departure will leave Arsenal very thin on the ground at the top. One of their main downfalls last season was their reliance upon their captain, as the woeful Chamakh was the next best thing for them. Losing 30-goal Van Persie will be a huge loss and with Podolski and Cazorla preferring to play on the wings, it leaves only the untested Giroud as a recognised striker of any quality. Should Song depart as well, they will be in real trouble, having been Arsenal's second best player last season. Injuries will need to be kind to the team, particularly at the back where the squad is its most bare, but with Wilshere, Walcott and Oxlaide-Chamberlain all currently ruled out, it appears to have continued with a familiar trend.
Overall, I expect Arsenal to be one of the leading teams in the hunt for fourth spot, but 1.68 represents little value at the moment. I am confident that that price will trade a lot higher during the campaign as teams in and around that spot tend to be pretty inconsistent. For now though, a lay of Arsenal to finish in the top 3 looks good at 2.9.
Tottenham
Spurs flirted with the title for a while last season before stumbling to a 4th place finish, which unusually put them into the Europa League only. Villas Boas has stepped in and the market doesn't seem to know quite what to think about this, with a fair degree of uncertainty surrounding the man who was sacked from Chelsea in less than a year. It is my opinion though, that he will be a lot more effective in a club which he has full control over, and we have seen his true potential from his time at Porto. He will bring stability to the team and his attacking style should suit Spurs who have an abundance of attacking talent. That being said, the loss of Luka Modric will come as a huge blow (should it happen), and he will need to be properly replaced if Spurs are going to truly challenge for the top 4. Sigurdsson is a good buy and should do well, but he is not in the same league as Modric, and I expect Levy to go shopping before September 1st. They are also desperately missing a striker and, should they end up with only Defoe, their attacking threat will be significantly reduced and I would question their ability to challenge the top 4 at all.
They do, however, still possess a strong base to the team, and the signing of Vertonghen will provide stability to the back 4. Having hung on to Bale and Van Der Vaart, their starting 11 would still be one of the most powerful in the league if they were able to bring in a classy striker. They also have the advantage of not being in the Champions League, unlike Chelsea and Arsenal, so may benefit from having a fitter squad towards the end of the season (it is unlikely they will go all out in the Europa League). Overall, it is a waiting game with Spurs, as their transfer activity looks far from done. They are currently odds of 3 to finish top 4 which looks big, but should they bring in some big players, expect that price to tumble.
Newcastle
It will be almost like second-season-syndrome for Newcastle after their remarkable climb to 5th place last sesason. So far they have only spent £1million on new faces after a pretty expensive January presumably used up a lot of their funds. In terms of a starting 11, Newcastle's team is strong in most areas, and the likes of Coloccini and Cabaye would walk into United or Chelsea's team. In terms of their squad however, they haven't strengthened when others around them have, and they will struggle with the extra burden of Europe to contend with. Realistically, the top 4 looks out of their reach and the market seems to have realised that with their odds at 15. Although they are big odds I would be wary about taking them on for a trade as I'm unsure if they will be able to continue their form from last season. The top 6 looks like a more realistic target and the odds of 4 look very appealing for a back to lay trade.
Liverpool
There are some who think they will be in the mix at the top, and others who think that they will fall behind Everton yet again. I buy neither. They will be better drilled and play a lot nicer football, but ultimately their squad is not good enough to find its way into the top 4. Even with the apparent addition of Nuri Sahin on loan (apparently it will be announced tomorrow), I still don't think that their squad has the strength and depth. Not yet, anyway. I believe in Rodgers as a manager and he has a decent core in the Liverpool squad, but it will take time and I can't see it working immediately. Their attacking options look particularly bare, with the Suarez the only goalscoring striker available. Coral go 11/8 that he will be their top scorer, and that looks like a price worth taking. Despite missing as many as he could manage last season and only netting 11 league goals, the closest to him was Bellamy on 6 goals, and he is meant to be leaving this summer. Another thing is that Rodger's side is unlikely to be blessed with goals. Swansea saw the least amount of games where both teams score (14/38), and Anfield saw the least amount of goals of all the stadia in England. Put simply: Liverpool's boring style is set to get even more boring, so backing under 2.5 goals in most games looks a good shout, though I doubt you'll get much value. Lucas returning for the Reds is a huge bonus as he really started to show promising form before his injury, but it will only help to bolster an already pretty sturdy defence and I think attack will be their main problem throughout. 3.35 looks a good price to lay Liverpool at for the top 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if it traded a lot higher than that very soon.
Overall
The teams in the mix for the top 4 will chop and change drastically throughout the season, as each of these teams have proved themselves to be unreliable and inconsistent. None of them have a big enough squad to maintain form for the whole year, particularly with cup competitions and Europe to deal with also, so there will definitely be a big opening for some trading throughout. If anyone takes an early lead in the table I would advise laying them quickly.
On a side note, I have just heard the news about Van Persie to United. So that leaves us with Van Persie, Rooney, Kagawa and Valencia vs Aguero, Tevez, Silva and Yaya vs Torres, Hazard, Mata and Oscar. Wow. We are in for a treat. From the top 7, only Spurs have strengthened their defence, so we may see some goals...
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