Saturday, 1 September 2012

The calm after the storm

From a betting point of view, the transfer window shutting two weeks after the season has kicked off is not desirable for any ante post bets. Teams can change drastically and yesterday was no exception to this, with over £100m being spent on deadline day. Key changes were made to the likes of Fulham, Tottenham, QPR and Manchester City among others, and this has thrown a whole new set of spanners in the works.

In terms of my positions for the new season, not too much has changed. I was very pleased to see that Arsenal didn't do any late deals and I think they are going to struggle a great deal, particularly in the coming weeks. I was a great admirer of Song and I think that not replacing him will come back to bite them, particularly with their injury situations. Cazorla is a superb addition, but a completely different type of player. Their lack of transfer activity has seen them drift out to evens for a top 4 finish, after being 1.7 last week.

In the week, I added Spurs to my list of bets, taking a large position on them to finish in the top 6 at odds of 1.74. I had hoped for bigger signings than they managed yesterday, but with an easy next few weeks, they should do well enough for me to trade out for a profit. In the long run, I can't see Spurs blowing anyone away, their squad is poor and definitely not an improvement on last season. They have only two strikers available up top, and both of those are hit and miss. Competition for fourth spot is going to be tough, but only because each team is now equally poor. Liverpool failed to bring in any big names and after letting Carroll go, and suffering another Lucas injury, I fear they too will fail to flatter.

It looks to me as if Everton have been the biggest winners over the last few weeks, recording 2 emphatic victories as well as signing a wealth of players, something which their failure to do in recent years has been their downfall. I will admit to not knowing a great deal about their new acquisitions, but David Moyes is shrewd and if they are as much of a success as most of his other signings, Everton could look dangerous for fourth place. Currently at odds of 6 if you fancy that.

My only real concern is the dealings at Fulham and what that will do for my top 10 bet. They smashed Norwich on the opening day, and made a real fight for it at Old Trafford, but the losses of Dempsey and particularly Dembele will hit them hard. They secured a real coup in getting Berbatov, and I really think he will do well with them, but it is in the middle of the park where they will be overrun. Murphy left earlier in the summer, meaning that they have now lost their 3 most crucial midfielders from last season. Richardson and Dejagah have also been brought in, but they are both wingers and I feel Martin Jol would have been much better focusing on the heart of their team. I still think that they have a good squad, but I will be keeping a close eye in the next few weeks.

Good luck this weekend.

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