Tuesday, 21 August 2012

Movement in the markets

The opening weekend lived up to its billing and provided us with a number of interesting results, causing certain markets to yo-yo. The outright winners market saw City drift to around 2.5 after their unconvincing 3-2 victory against Southampton, before slamming back down to 2.3 after United followed up with a 1-0 loss at Everton. This caused Everton's top 6 price to plummet to odds of 3, while backing them for the top 4 can still be seized at 9.2. I spoke about their potential in my last post and, having seen off United and seemingly dispelled their start of season demons, many will be hoping that they can continue in such a form. Questions remain about their squad, but they have strengthened wisely and have a relatively generous run of games approaching, which could see them in a good position come Christmas.

Elsewhere, the biggest victors were Swansea and Fulham. I must say I anticipated the Fulham result but, like nearly everyone else, never saw Swansea's result coming. I had read up on Michu and was interested to see if he could continue where he left off in Spain, and based on Saturday, it certainly seems like he is going to prove another bargain buy for the Swans. Swansea's relegation price leaped from around 2.8 to 4, while Fulham shortened for a top 10 finish from 2.5 to evens. Recipients of 5-0 thrashings QPR and Norwich showed us that it might be a tough season for last seasons new boys, and their prices for relegation dropped to 4.8 (from 7.8) and 2.16 (from 2.6) respectively. While this was quite an emphatic start from a number of teams, I cannot help but consider the movements in each market a slight overreaction after one match. I guess it is because previously punters had nothing to base their opinions on, so now the market is just reforming in the shape of the first round of fixtures. Expect all to change very soon however.

The weekend was a good one for me, and the majority of my bets got off to a flyer. As previously stated, I had Norwich for relegation and Fulham for top 10, placing my eggs in one basket some might say, but it paid off. Norwich have a tough set of games (after this weekend) so I will be hanging on with that trade for a bit. The price I got on Fulham (2.62) I consider far too high, so I will be sticking with that one too for a while. The only bet which didn't quite go to plan was Stoke to be relegated, and they saw a slight drift to 7.8 after their draw with Reading. It wasn't a disaster, but I have decided to reduce my liability on that one after reassessing their coming fixtures. The United/City straight forecasts remain around the same odds, the market knows United won't continue how they began, and that is how I view the situation too. No panic with that one. In addition to my current bets, I have placed a large lay bet on Arsenal to finish in the top 4, with a view to their upcoming fixtures and the fact that Spurs have a very easy set of fixtures, and have finally signed the striker I wanted them too. It is a risky bet with Arsenal possibly not finished in the transfer market, but even so I feel that they will struggle in the next few months. Furthermore, I have added Reading to my relegation list.

In normal trading I took a tiny £5.56 profit (which you can see in my all new P&L on the side), but I was just happy to take any profit in a weekend where I kept my stakes low. As weeks go on I will increase my trading but only once I have a better feel for the new season.

Olympics? What Olympics?

1 comment:

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