Sunday, 19 August 2012

Everton slow starters: Myth or Truth?

Everton are famed for their slow starts, particularly in recent years, but I have always been unsure as to how drastic these slow starts actually are. The footballing world is quick to hand out labels to teams or players, so I was interested to investigate just how justified this particular accusation was. The results were laughably resounding however, and it would appear completely justified that they have been labelled thus. The graphs below demonstrate the proceedings from the last 4 seasons, clearing showing a chaotic run up until Christmas when things seem to settle down. I particularly enjoyed the part (around the same time each season) when David Moyes must have decided that they were going to try and actually maintain a position, and they horizontal lined to the finish.

In spite of this overwhelming evidence however, experts are more hopeful than ever that Everton may be able to get off to a roaring start, after one of the most productive transfer windows in their recent history, (purchase-wise that is). Having only lost the aging Cahill and youngster Rodwell so far, bringing in much-needed reinforcements in the process, Moyes' men do certainly look to be able to push the top 6 or 7 from an early stage. They don't have the easiest of starts at home to Manchester United, but after that they have a more favourable run, facing only Liverpool and Newcastle (both at home) from the top 8 clubs until late November. They are currently 4.2 for a top 6 finish and 14 for a top 4 finish on Betfair, but don't be surprised to see those prices fall between here and Christmas. This is probably a (potentially lucrative) bet for the more daring folk however, as the stats below speak for themselves.





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