Getting ahead of the game

Relax, this is not going to be a post in which I try to sell you the latest gizmo to help you become a trading miracle, despite what the title suggests. Instead I will be looking at the differences and difficulties in picking your trades at the right times, in order to catch the price wave you desire rather than hit a wall.

This season has been my biggest learning curve yet as I have taken on a new challenge in trading the long term markets. So far it has been a fairly positive experience as I am currently in profit, but this has not been without some trials and tribulations. On occasions I think I have reacted to the form of teams and made a move, rather than anticipating a change in form, which is the crucial element. This has mainly resulted in a red screen and it is something which I will need to expel from my game if I am to make good profits. To put this into simpler terms, it is the equivalent of a football match which sees a goal scored in the first 5 minutes, and backing over 2.5 goals after the goal has been scored. With a pre-match price around evens for the over 2.5, an early goal would see the price plummet to around 1.4, and in my opinion backing it at this stage would be rather stupid (though I have been known to do such a thing in a less disciplined era!) Backing at this stage and this price would represent little value and more often than not would lead to losses, particularly if you are looking to trade the bet rather than punt outright. In my opinion there are only two reasons for making such a bet: either because you are reacting to the electric start to the match and think there will be more goals, or because you were waiting for a bigger price on the overs before getting involved, and were frustrated at the early goal, yet buoyed that your pre-match prediction looks to be taking place. This is a classic case of reaction over anticipation, which will commonly lead to unsuccessful trading in the long run.

With the outright markets, the trend remains the same but it is even more crucial to make your trades at the right times because of liquidity problems. It is tempting at times to back with the form book, for instance when a team is on a losing streak and playing diabolical football it sometimes seems incomprehensible that they may ever regain form, but of course they normally do. It is unusual that a team goes through a whole season without a win, losing every match along the way, and similarly so that a team will win every game. Even Arsenal's 'Invincibles' were 2nd in the league at the halfway point in 03/04, having drawn 6 of 19 matches. The reason for this post is that I was considering my potential next moves earlier in the week, and the two which came to my head were Norwich to be relegated and Liverpool top 4 both as back-to-lays. When looking at the form table however, it soon became evident why these two were in my mind, as Liverpool sit 4th from the last 6 matches, and Norwich bottom. Norwich are now 7.4 for relegation, after being around 12.5 before their slump in form. Liverpool are 8 for the top 4 now, after being matched as high as 13 just a few weeks ago. There is little point in taking these prices now as the movement has already happened. There are exceptions to this of course, and either of these teams might continue in the same form, but mostly taking trades in this manner will lead to disaster. Looking at the form table a more realistic option might be backing Southampton for relegation at a generous 3.5, particularly as they are only four points from the drop zone.

I have battled with anticipation and reaction throughout the season, as can be demonstrated clearly by these two images: 

Backed at a low price of 4.7, not far from their lowest matched price this season, after a run of poor form. Layed at 12 for a loss.

Backed for top 6 at 1.733 after a run of poor form at the start of the season, layed at 1.4 for a profit after they picked up the pace.

The two images above really reflect the difference in my trades, and I am looking to expel the need to go with the trends after they have happened, however tempting it might be. QPR's home performance to Liverpool a few weeks ago showed a depleted, awful side who look destined for relegation. The next match they won 1-0 at Stamford Bridge. At the end of the day, football is a crazy old sport and to be profitable you have to attempt to predict what's coming. Easy huh? Have a good week.

Ally Pally

My week has been dominated by the snooker as I had predicted, and it has been a firecracker so far. Comebacks from the big name players such as Robertson, Trump and Selby was the theme from the last 16,   and the top 5 in the world all made it to the quarter finals to make it a thrilling tournament in store. I had a little interest on the winners market by dutching the four favourites, so I was pleased to see them all come through (just about). I've layed off a bit of my liability now but the odds are all still fairly long because no big name has left the tournament yet. I also had a £5 bet on Murphy to win on the fixed odds market (to qualify for a free bet elsewhere) which I have partially layed off, hence the large liability on him:

Over in the football world, the biggest move of the week has been QPR's relegation odds. They did well to secure a point against Spurs, although I watched the match and must say they were abysmal on the attack, but their transfer activity, or at least the rumours surrounding them, have seen their odds jump from 1.55 to 1.65 for relegation without touching a ball. I topped up at 1.57 when I heard about Remy, and now M'Vila is rumoured although apparently he isn't too keen. 'Arry the wheeler dealer trying to work his magic once more. At the other end of the table, United and City got through their weekend unscathed, proving once again that this season is going to be all about them. United remain at 1.38 for the title, and I have now decided to get involved in laying United. They have a tough month or two to come, despite their big lead, as they will be focused on their huge matches with Real Madrid in February. 

Apart from that though I'm off to Ally Pally myself tomorrow, hopefully for a top day of snooker. Have a good day people, I leave you with a blatant lie from Old 'Arry: 

The Betfair Masters 2013

The Masters starts this week and regular users of this blog will know that I enjoy a good snooker tournament from time to time. This one I am particularly excited about though, as I have tickets to one of the quarter finals which will be my first time going to watch any form of snooker. Some may say they couldn't think of anything worse, but what do they know?

In terms of betting, the favourite going into Friday is snooker's new darling Judd Trump at 5.3 (9/2) with Betfair. It is an interesting price up for Trump, who crashed out in the first round at the last ranking event (UK Championships) to world number 50 Mark Joyce, although he did win the International Championship back in November. Since Ronnie O'Sullivan's recent sabbatical, Trump appears to have taken the mantle of snooker's exciting bad boy, or 'full time playboy' as his Twitter bio used to read. A key feature of the O'Sullivan reign was unpredictability on the table, yet he was frequently a lowed priced favourite for each tournament, mainly because of his name. This was the case even as he began to slip down the rankings in recent seasons, and I can't help but feel this is already beginning to happen to Trump. He is, of course, the world number 2, but at these prices I do not think I would like to back him, especially with his unpredictability as a relative rookie to the game. 

The second favourite some way behind him is world number 1 and UK Championship 2012 winner Mark Selby at 7.8 (7/1). This seems a somewhat reserved price for the world leader and this is presumably down to his lackluster win at the UK Championship. He managed to dig deep and claw back wins rather than sweep away all in his path with slick snooker, but this should still not be underestimated as a good ranking title. Having been out with a neck injury before this it is certainly an admirable achievement to recover and reclaim his number 1 spot, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a big improvement in his play at The Masters. The 7.8 therefore looks like quite a decent price.

Due to the talent which has come through in recent years, snooker has become a bit like Formula 1 in that it is difficult for one player to dominate all the events. So far this season there has been 5 world ranking events, and 5 different winners (Ricky Walden, Barry Hawkins, John Higgins, Judd Trump and Mark Selby). Additionally, no one has won the 'triple crown' (The UK Championship, the Masters, and the World Championship) since 2002/3. Despite the fact that The Masters is not a ranking event, it is still seen as extremely prestigious in the Snooker circuit, and I am sure the £175,000 winners prize helps too. This is shown by the recent winners of the tournament, as Ding Junhui is the only to have won it since 2004 other than O'Sullivan/Selby/Robertson/Higgins.

This leaves the tournament rather open with any of the 'big players' looking to take the title, and the betting markets mark up Robertson and Higgins (both 8.4 or 15/2) as completing the top 4 favourites. There appears little to choose between these 4, and dutching them would give you odds of 1.8 (4/5), with the option of trading your position on Betfair throughout the tournament. If you fancied adding in world number 4 and UK Championship runner up Shaun Murphy at 12 for a less ambitious punt, you would get odds of 1.5 (1/2). Due to the way the draw has fallen, Robertson, Higgins, Selby and Trump could theoretically be the 4 semi-finalists in the tournament, so dutching could be an interesting option to take. Naturally I expect there to be a shock along the way, but the point is none of these 4 will be knocking each other out in the early rounds. 

Essentially this competition, like most of snooker's tournaments, is up for grabs. If you are someone who enjoys a more risky and money chasing bet, then I would suggest last year's runner-up Shaun Murphy to win at 12 (11/1). As number 4 in the world and also runner-up in the UK Championships, playing some superb snooker along the way, I think he is fairly overpriced this time out. Otherwise though, sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

2012 Review

In keeping with the tradition on this blog (and by that I mean I have done it once), this post will feature a round up of my progress over the last year. I will admit that I have skim read a lot of my posts from the last 12 months as I needed a bit of reminding about what I was up to this time last year! 2012 was a good year for me on the whole however, as I completed my first full season of trading in good profit, and that has continued into this season.

The first few months of last year I was attempting to continue where I had left off in 2011, by trading each week and looking to take a profit close to the target I had set myself. I was mainly focused on developing my own systems, and I took to making spreadsheets and detailing the trades I made in order to see which was proving the most profitable for me. This was a good move as it is something I still stick to today, and not just when trading, in order to keep my dealings as organised as possible. These months didn't really feature a heavy amount of trading however, not compared to 2011 anyway, mainly due to a lack of funds and a lack of time, as my university year was coming to an end. All the while however, I was keeping an eye on the outright markets and plotting my strategy for the following season. May came and I finished the season in a good amount of profit, something I was extremely pleased with given that it was my first year attempting to do so properly.

The summer months were brilliant for sport. The Euros, Wimbledon and then of course the Olympics all over a few months. I continued trading on a smaller scale over these months, taking a profit from the Euros but not really dabbling in the other sports. This is something which I feel I have really kicked from my game in 2012: gambling on unfamiliar sports. On the whole, I have only traded football and snooker, two sports which I feel comfortable with. Betting needlessly on other sports had cost me a fair amount of money in the past, so I am pleased this appears to now be behind me. I did even have a lucky dabble in the manager markets but this was a one off and not something which I could really repeat. July was a momentous month as it saw the year anniversary of the blog, and a proud moment for me as I had wondered whether blogging would be a fad which I would just forget about after a while.

The new season arrived in August and I embarked on my new strategy, one which I hope I will be able to continue for many years. I won't go into detail here on how it is going because I did so in my last post, so please refer to that if you are interested. On the blogging side of things, the blog has evolved to cover things other than my own personal journey by looking at the markets, the teams and players, as well as bets from various bookmakers. This has been a conscious effort as when I read blogs I am more interested in general betting chat than the personal experiences of individuals. This is not to say that personal experiences are boring however, I think the best blogs I read are ones which integrate personal experiences with context from the betting world too.

One thing which has not had too much of a mention this year is matched betting. I have exacerbated the free bets on offer to me, with the exception of the odd reload free bet, so I have moved on to teaching/advising friends and family on how to match bet. This has provided me with a decent sized regular income (at least by my student standards), which has allowed me to generate capital for my trading and live less like a student this year. I have many more 'customers' lined up as well, so this should continue for some time into the new year.

In terms of the blog, it continues to grow and I have almost reached 15,000 hits after four consecutive months of over 1000 views (the first time this has ever happened). December 2012 was my best ever in terms of pageviews with 1418, so long may this upward trend continue!

My plans for 2013 are simple: to keep calm and pass Berbatov the ball. Oh wait, no, wrong one. My actual plan is just to continue as normal, keeping things simple and tidy with no need for drastic changes. I have learned a great deal over the last year, but I am still eager to learn more. I will continue to follow the markets, tweaking my trades here and there and if I finish with a profit this season I will be a very pleased man. I will graduate from university in June (hopefully) and I would very much like to go into marketing for a bookmaker or exchange. I applied for the Sky Bet marketing graduate scheme a couple of months ago but I was rejected, presumably because I have nothing which relates to marketing on my CV! If anyone reading works in such a department (at any firm), some work experience in the summer would be much appreciated! Otherwise, the marketing department of every bookmaker can expect a request for experience at some stage this year!

So that was my year, and my plans for this year also. I would like to thank everyone who has been reading over 2012, it is very much appreciated. I hope you will all continue to follow my journey in 2013. Happy New Year.

Season Half Way Point - How's It Going?

Seeing as we are 19 matches through the Barclays Premier League season I thought I would do a review of my trading, and bring you up to date with my positions thus far. Firstly, as the section to your left tells you, I had intended on attempting to trade the markets each week to make a modest £500 in order to cover any losses elsewhere. I never really anticipated needing to 'cover my losses' though, which is quite handy considering my trading has been rather poor these last few months! I have made a profit of just over £70 but it has been quite inconsistent profit, due to poor trading or lack of trading each weekend. I realised the other day that I have been quite poor at showing P+Ls this season, particularly compared to last year, but this is mainly due to lack of activity, or the P+Ls being distorted due to matched betting. I am also trying to move away from that side of the blog and have therefore decided to withdraw the P+L from the site. I originally had it up more as a record for myself than anyone else, and also to encourage myself to report every loss with my readers, but I don't really need it for either of those purposes anymore, so it is getting the chop! Aside from trading I have made around £170 from matched betting since August, so things are moving quite smoothly, albeit at a slow pace!

Now on to the part I have been focusing most on this season: the 'outrights'. It's difficult to place an exact P+L on my trades as a lot of them are still in motion, but my expert conclusion is: it is going alright. To expand on this point I will show you all of my moves over the last few months and explain how they went.

The best trade so far. Top two selections backed at start of year and after Chelsea's collapse both prices went below 3 making an easy trade out. Since United have gone ahead I have layed the low price of 1.86 on the top selection, and backed City/United at 5.7, as can probably be deduced from the picture. £175 initially wagered, if cashed out now total profit would be £78.

Layed Chelsea at 2.2 for £121 shortly before their collapse and traded out at 2.9. They went as high as 6.8 during the sacking of Di Matteo however, meaning I could have taken a much higher profit. I was a tad premature to trade out of this one.

Perhaps with the previous trade in mind, I did the opposite of this one and missed the opportune moment to trade out. They traded as high as 1.8 after I layed at 1.27, but recent form has seen their price drop again and I only managed to trade out £15 at the top price. Will stay in for a bit longer, if I cashed out now I would take a profit of £18.

The Chelsea loss was made over the summer so that can be ignored. The Arsenal bet I struggled with hugely, as the form of the sides listed here are so unpredictable I found it hard to manage. I think the trick with this one is to not look at the fixture lists, but to just lay low and wait for the inevitable dip in form from either team. Total profit £15 from risk of £186.

This was a fairly simple one, a back at 1.733 for £200 and a lay at 1.399 after just a few weeks. I initially left the profit on Spurs to finish top 6, but thought it best to spread it later on, especially at low odds.

Fulham I chose to back from the beginning, and after their good start to the season I had hoped I could trade out. Liquidity was a problem here though and I only managed to get half of my liability out, choosing to stay in for a bit longer. Their form however, dropped, and if I was to trade out now I would take a scratch. I will stay in for now though. Secondly we have West Brom, who had a brilliant start to the season and I chose to lay them at 1.283 anticipating the inevitable dip. It came and they went up to 1.65 briefly before regaining form and now they are back to 1.31. On this occasion, I mixed greed with their fixture list and decided to stay in for a bit longer for a better price. I will wait for a bit longer as I don't imagine they can continue this all season. If I traded now I would take another scratch.

Another fairly simple one, I backed Everton at 2.388 for £100 and Liverpool's woeful form has made this quite simple. I am in the process of trading out, I just need a bit more liquidity. 

There are a few here so I'll keep it simple. Stoke: I was wrong, they have been superb, 100% loss. At least it is only £12. Norwich I really thought would actually go down, but was wrong again (so it seems so far anyway). Luckily all I needed was their poor start to take a £31 profit from an £82 stake. Similarly I backed Reading for relegation early on, but was a bit premature in trading out on this one, taking only a £10 profit on each outcome. Since, I have layed Reading at 1.29 as I think they have the potential to see a higher price before the end of the season. With QPR I made a big investment and so far it hasn't paid off. I may wait until the end of the transfer window before deciding what to do. Layed at 1.872, if I traded now I would have a £32 loss. With Sunderland I made the decision to back at odds of 4.7 a few weeks back, and it is now looking like a foolish decision. If I traded now I would take a £33 loss.

As I said before I thought Norwich would be down there, and their good start gave me the chance to square up here, but I missed the chance to green all round. I could have taken a £14 profit on all outcomes but I thought the price would go lower. I was wrong.

Poor decision to get involved with this league. I was taken by last year's outcome and this year just isn't turning out the same way. I chose to take a loss early on as I didn't think it would get much better, and so far that has turned out to be wise.

Current balance 'in-play': £456 of the £500 bank.

Best call of the season so far: Backing United/City, City/United in the straight forecast.

Worst call of the season so far: Stoke to be relegated. 

Well there you have it. That is how it is going for me this season, I hope I wasn't too long-winded for you. In the coming weeks I will be compiling some data on who still has who to play, and then taking up a few new positions based on this. I will also most likely do a 2012 review in the next week or two, just as I did last year for 2011. Based on what I have provided here, I would say that I am very pleased with the start I have made to the season, and feel that my target of £500 profit is within reach. Should I fall short however, I will be happy as long as I make a decent profit on my maiden season trading in this way.

Happy New Year everyone, I am looking forward to 2013 already.

Merry Christmas

This is just a short message to wish everyone a very happy Christmas. I was going to do a review of the weekend's football but, to be quite honest, I cannot be bothered! I have plenty more chocolate and other delicacies to enjoy between now and New Year, and everything I talk about will be different in two days anyway (after the Boxing Day fixtures). The Christmas calendar is one of my favourite times in the football season, meaning I will probably be enjoying the games whilst eating, rather than trading!

I hope you all have an excellent Christmas, I will be back after a short festive break.

Festive fixtures - England vs Germany, 'No Man's Land', December 25th 1915.

Last Post Ever

This will be the last post ever on this blog, or in fact any blog, if the Mayans are correct about the end of the world today. If that is to be the case then this post is largely pointless, but I am a gambling man and I'm willing to make a little punt on waking up bright eyed and ready for the weekend's fixtures tomorrow morning. Worst Bet of the Week award goes to the man who placed 50p on the world ending with Coral at 1,000,000/1. Absolute genius. 

Anyway, back to betting talk and I was given a Christmas treat earlier by Sporting Bet who are offering a £100 free bet if you make 10 bets of £10 between now and New Year's Day. This is a massive offer, and you should be able to make £70 at least by matching it effectively. The beauty of it is the minimum odds on the qualifying bets are 1.2, meaning you can find close match odds for a tiny liability. I have already placed all of my qualifying bets, making a small loss of around £5 and it took me less than half an hour, easy money. If you're planning on doing this bet, I would act quickly as Sporting Bet have been known to withdraw their offers rather swiftly after building up big liabilities. I'm sure they won't be the only ones to offer a Christmas gift, so I look forward to that.

Back in the Premier League my lay of West Brom for the top 10 at 1.283 is continuing to flourish as the Baggies are now out to 1.67 after collecting just one point from their last four matches. It was good news down at the bottom of the table as QPR finally won a match, and the market reacted massively jumping them from 1.62 to 1.87 for relegation. This, combined with a thrashing at the hands of Arsenal, had a knock on effect on Reading who are now as low as 1.16 to go down. This is a trying time of year for the lower teams and those who have relied upon a good starting 11 but lack depth in squad are likely to struggle. I expect this to be a crucial factor in QPR's rise out of the relegation zone.

Up at the top, United and City pulled further away from Chelsea after their exploits in Japan allowed Spurs to pull level with them on points in third place. They now sit 1.66 for a top 3 finish and, although they dispelled suggestions they might be jet-lagged by thrashing Leeds in midweek, I just wonder how they will handle 4 games in 11 days, especially with tough games away to Norwich and Everton. They still remain 4 points worse off than at the same time last season, although with a game in a hand this time, which is remarkable considering the level of their investment over the summer months. The previously depressed Arsenal fans have now realised that they are just 2 points off 3rd place, and it is surely not long before they nominate Wenger for a knighthood for the trillionth season in a row. They're now at 1.96 for a top 4 finish, while Spurs are 2.36. One to keep an eye on may be the price of 4.2 for them to finish in the top 3, although liquidity is currently a problem in that market.

That's all from me now, I need to do some last minute Christmas shopping! Enjoy your weekends people, hopefully we will still be here tomorrow for some festive fixtures.

Deadlock is Broken

After many weeks and 16 matches of see-sawing in the Premier League, we now have a clear favourite for the title for the first time this season. Having bounced around at odds of 2s and 3s in weeks previous, Manchester United are now odds-on at 1.61 to win the title, having pulled 6 points clear after Sunday's derby. Manchester City are yet to go below evens this season, while Chelsea were only matched as low as 3.35, despite their electrifying start.

To suggest the title race is over however is preposterous, and anyone uttering those words really knows little about football, particularly English football. Laying United at 1.61 is almost definite to see a return at some point in the campaign, but a more appealing lay looks to be the EVENS on United 1st/City 2nd in the straight forecast, as it allows for more variables to affect the bet. This means that even in the unlikely event that City do not put up a fight for their crown, the bet will still prosper if City are pressured for 2nd place by Chelsea or another contender. Odds of 3.5 on City 1st/United 2nd are also worth considering, although liquidity is currently an issue in that market.

At the other end of the table the boys are beginning to be sorted from the men, and both QPR (1.61) and Reading (1.34) remain odds-on for relegation, though all could change tonight with the 6-pointer between Sunderland and Reading. At present, QPR's price appears to be being maintained at a higher point than it perhaps should be, with the side currently 8 points from safety, which is presumably due to the Redknapp effect. Every winless week however sees them slip that little bit lower, and if there is no win very soon, then it won't be long before their price slips sub 1.5. Further up, we have Sunderland at 3.75, Aston Villa at 3.75 and Wigan at 3.15, which are particularly generous prices considering the form of these teams thus far. The trick is however picking the team which will continue to plummet. At this stage last year, Wigan were only two points worse off than this season, and found themselves bottom of the table by match week 22, six games from now. Paradoxically, Sunderland surged up the table, while Villa maintained a steady pace in mid-table. Although these stats are hardly foolproof, especially considering Sunderland's surge was largely due to a managerial change around this stage last season, it is a decent guide and is certainly worth considering.

The next 5 fixtures for each team are as follows:

WIGAN- Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Everton (A), Villa (A), Man Utd (H).
SUNDERLAND - Reading (H), Man Utd (A), Southampton (A), Man City (H), Spurs (H).
ASTON VILLA - Liverpool (A), Chelsea (A), Spurs (H), Wigan (H), Swansea (A).

Each of the three appear to have a tricky Christmas period in store, and there isn't really a great deal of difference between any of the lists. Although Sunderland have the most home matches, they are against top 6 teams (tonight's match excluded) and if they were to win tonight, it would certainly be worth looking at their relegation price as a back-to-lay option. Villa likewise could see themselves further in the cesspit after their next three games, but the match at home to Wigan will be a crucial 6 pointer.

That's all from me, I hope you enjoy your week.

Snooker Carnage

There was drama in the UK Championship last night as Neil Robertson and Mark Selby played out an  epic in the quarter finals. In the best of 11 match, Robertson raced into a 4-0 lead and was matched as low as 1.04, before totally capitulating and losing 6-4. Selby was matched as high as 85 in-play to win the tournament, and now sits favourite at 2.5 meaning someone had a nice cash out this morning. Elsewhere, pre tournament favourite Judd Trump crashed out in the first round and 17 year old Luca Brecel impressed before eventually being edged out by Shaun Murphy in the quarters. I watched Brecel at the World Championships last year and he certainly seems destined for big things, I think we may be seeing much more of him over the next few years.

Over in football the big match is obviously the derby this weekend and Bet365 are treating us to another of their £50 in play free bets. Apart from this, I probably won't get much of a chance to trade this weekend due to end-of-term university work, but I did manage to take a £25 profit over the last week. I'm currently waiting for my bet on Everton to win the league 'without the top 6' to be matched, as at the moment this looks like a straight battle between them and Liverpool, and the latter look distinctly unimpressive so far, especially with Europe to contend with as well. Last week the big match for me was Bayern vs Dortmund, with Dortmund desperately needing a win to kick start their title charge. It was not to be however, and the match finished 1-1 leaving Bayern's odds of winning the title still around 1.11.

I decided not to take Newcastle to finish top 10 as there were too many factors in the way for me. I do  still admire them and the players they possess though, and I will be hoping they recapture last years form. Only time will tell if I made the right decision here. Enjoy your weekend.