The Betfair Snooker World Championship 2013

Regular readers of this blog will know that I am impartial to a bit of snooker from time to time and over the last year or two it has become a kind of second sport for me. Unfortunately this tends to be strictly from an enjoyment perspective and not so much from a betting perspective, partly because snooker doesn't have the liquidity required to trade properly and partly because the sport is so unpredictable. The World Championship starts on Saturday though and it is sponsored by Betfair after all, so it should show an improvement liquidity-wise.

The draw for the competition was made yesterday and it made for a slight rearrangement on the outright winner market, as each of the favourites' route to the final was determined. As far as the betting goes the outright market is the most interesting as usual but it is typically difficult to pick yourself a winner, with the favourite starting at a huge 7.2. The big news so far has been the return of defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan having played his last competitive match of snooker in the final of last year's World Championship. He heads the betting at 7.2 but I really cannot see myself backing him, especially as favourite. Everyone knows what Ronnie is like and how he plays, no one can predict anything he will do though and he could be sensational or awful. I wouldn't want to back anyone who had not played the game for a year, let alone someone who is renowned for being a bit of a basket-case. Don't get me wrong, I fully hope we see the old Ronnie back to his glory days to give a strong defence of his title, but I won't be backing him to do so.

Neil Robertson, Judd Trump and Mark Selby make up the rest of what Betfair is calling 'The Big Four', and you can currently get 1.89 on any of them to lift the trophy. Throughout history the winner has tended to be one of the big players in the game at the time, as indeed should be the case, and it isn't since 2005 when a young Shaun Murphy won the title that an underdog has come through to win. You could argue that last year was a shock with O'Sullivan winning despite his poor ranking and age (oldest winner since Ray Reardon in 1978), but Ronnie has been somewhat of an anomaly all throughout his career so it can possibly be excused (and he was actually still one of the favourites). Of the other three of the 'Big 4', the most appealing to me is Robertson at 7.4 who is the only former World Champion of the three. He certainly looks good for a back-to-lay as he has been the most consistent throughout this season (despite actually going all the way only once) with 1 win, 3 finals, 3 semi-finals and quarter. He is just coming off the back of his impressive China Open win and I think he could be ready to take it to the next level. Alternatively, Mark Selby at 7.8 has been world number one for intermittent parts of the season and, although he has been less consistent with only one final, he also won the UK Championship and the Masters and is looking to complete the Triple Crown. Judd Trump at 8.4 is my least favourite of the four by far and tends to have his price shortened somewhat due to his playing style. This season he won the International Championship and finished runner-up at the Shanghai Masters, but let's himself down far too often and has failed to get past the second round of ranking events on 5 occasions this season. Two years ago he announced himself to the world by finishing runner-up in this tournament, but I think it may still be a tad too soon for him to go one step further.

As for 'The Field', Higgins and Ding (14s), Allen (16s), Maguire (19.5) and Murphy (22) make up the rest of the main pack with a fair chance of doing well this time round. Higgins and Murphy are the only ones with World titles to their name, and it is the latter who I feel has once again been severely underrated by the markets. He remains number 4 in the world (ranked 5 in this tournament because O'Sullivan is first seed) and has been pretty consistent all the way through the season, with one final, four semi finals and two quarters. It may just be past him to win the tournament, but I will be backing him to make the quarter finals at least. Mark Allen is another who has performed well this season and is up to 6 in the rankings, though he is another who frequently struggles to make it past the second round (on 6 occasions). He also has a very difficult draw with the way it is structured, so I would not really advise backing him. Stephen Maguire is at 19.5 and this must be for his world ranking (5) alone because he has not really performed well this season. He won the Welsh Open and made the semis in China, but on eight occasions did not progress past the 2nd round. His draw is not the harshest however and he could progress until he meets Robertson in the quarters, but I wouldn't back him to get that far based on his recent form.

Overall the tournament is extremely difficult to call either way, much like any other world sporting tournament, as the prestige of the Crucible mixed with the length of the matches (1st round is best of 19 frames, progressing to the final which is best of 35) means anything can happen. I'm not sure I will be having any big punts on it, but maybe a couple of small interest bets. From a in-play trading perspective, I would be looking to back Mark Selby if he went behind early on in a match and lay Judd Trump/Neil Robertson if they took a big early lead. Robertson and Trump's playing style relies upon their long potting being perfect which is difficult to maintain for a whole 19+ frames and they are known to frequently take the foot off the gas when they're ahead.

Otherwise though, sit back and enjoy the tournament! Much like golf or test cricket, it is a sport which is relaxing to watch as well and can be left on in the background (particularly when you have revision to do...), but can also be exciting at times and unmissable! I only wish I didn't have exams soon so I could go to Sheffield and watch it. Good luck.

Revolution or Evolution?

After Ladbrokes bought the floundering Betdaq last year many were hoping for a long awaited serious challenger to the monopoly created over at Betfair. Earlier this year the 'Betdaq manifestso' was released and waxed lyrical about promising 'more liquidity', 'lower rates' and 'no premium charge', and while this sounded promising most people were waiting before they passed judgement on whether the takeover had been successful or not. A few months on then, how are Betdaq doing?

I was impressed to see Aintree splashed from top to bottom in purple the other day as the Daq marketing team had obviously chosen to go all out for the National. Huge white tanks were driven up the roads outside the venue as those on board cried 'Don't settle for Betfair' and covered the crowds in Betdaq flyers. Flyers, tanks and billboards are all lovely but they aren't much use if there is still no money in the markets. In a bid to gain more liquidity quickly, they offered commission free winnings on the National and this did certainly seem to have a positive short term effect (see below). Where the struggle lies however, is getting people to keep their winnings on the site and not, as I did, withdraw them immediately to return to Betfair.

Picture of total matched on the National (taken from Twitter account of @TrevDaq)

The biggest competition this week is The Masters and I was surprised to discover that Betdaq currently has almost double the amount matched in the outright winners market than Betfair, with £13.6m and £7.1m matched respectively. This would definitely appear to suggest that the tide may be turning and as long as Daq can keep hold of a few customers from each tournament, then it may well begin to compete. It will be interesting to see how the two progress as the tournament goes in play.

BetDaq

Betfair

Unfortunately however things are not looking as good in Betdaq's other markets and if we delve into one of the (subjectively) biggest football matches of the day, the Daq's liquidity begins to fall down once again compared to Betfair.

A poor show from BetDaq

Better from Betfair

This is much the same across the board for most of the sports today, so it would be fair to assume that many of the National punters have just moved their winnings along to the Masters in search of another 66/1 winner.

So what can we learn from this? Is Betfair a machine which just cannot be caught? Or are BetDaq in it for real this time? Personally it looks to me like the Daq are still finding their feet and are progressing slowly but surely with the strong backing of Ladbrokes. This type of thing does not happen overnight, people do not just wake up and decide to take all of their pennies out of Betfair, it will need to be a very slow and gradual movement from one to the other. Offering the odd commission free market at the big events seems to be working so far, though I'm not sure what it does for their profit margins, but it is still going to take a lot more than that to work permanently, though based on the show so far their backers are willing to invest a lot in marketing and branding to boost their reputation, which is a positive sign. I'm not sure if it is possible or not but I would have thought that offering a commission free period on, say, football for a month would gain the site a lot of attention and attract a lot more customers. While I reckon this would be too much for the profit margins to handle however, it would probably achieve gains in the long run, even if there were short term losses. 

Whatever the case, BetDaq appears to be slowly evolving into a genuine competitor to Betfair and it will be interesting to see if they can begin to match everyone's expectations soon. 

Shameless

Forgive me dear bloggers for the unsightly blemish on my page to the right of your screens. I did tell myself that I would never advertise or try to sell you things, but I have been tempted into betraying my word. Technically I am not committing the worst of sins as this is not my own product, just one which I am a big fan of and I am sure the majority of you have it in your portfolio already. The reason it has now appeared on my page is because I can claim a commission if you sign up through the link and I believe, as I have said many many times before (see older posts), that everyone should be a member. For those who don't know: It is risk free matched betting, whereby the system guides you through cashing out all of the bookmakers' free bet offers for a guaranteed profit. I completed the initial service well over a year ago but have continued to make profits (around £400 this year, and I am currently doing a special new bonus offer of up to £150) and the service continues to improve with videos and written guides to make it easy as possible. Free bets occur all the way through the year, especially when there are big sporting events on, and Mike (the creator) sifts through them all to present you the best and safest ones on offer. There is also a friend referral scheme of £20 each time you recommend someone, so it is just money all round really. If you want further proof of how good the product is, I challenge you to find a bad review of it online, I haven't seen one yet! So, to cut a long story short, do me (a poor, skint student) a favour and sign up through my link. You will make money I promise. Here ends my sales pitch!

The weekend saw a feast of action once again and the big result was at Loftus Road where Wigan obliterated the Hoops' hopes after Remy's stunning goal. Betfair now has QPR at 1.05 to go down, while Wigan's point leaves them 3.0 for the drop and Villa's crucial win at Stoke pushes them out to 5.4. Sunderland are now the favourites for 18th place at just 2.86 for the drop! I still think a lot might change before the end though. Remarkably Stoke, who were once as high as 700/1 for the drop are now just 8.2. Up at the top Arsenal continued impressively with a win away at West Brom, while Chelsea crept past Sunderland and Spurs struggled to draw to Everton. Top 3 prices are now : Chelsea 2.08, Arsenal 2.46, Spurs 6.2. City's win at Old Trafford had the grand effect of pushing United (previously at 1.01) out to 1.02 for the title. Nothing to see here, according to the markets at least.

I was at Aintree on Saturday and had a great day as usual and I even managed to get a bit sun burnt! Betting wise it was a nightmare as the bookies absolutely swept up all throughout the day, particularly in the National itself with 66/1 Auroras Encore winning. I was pleased to see that all 40 horses returned safe and sound however, and I hope the future of the National is now a little safer than it was (not that I really think it was ever at serious risk). Enjoy your week.

The Final Stretch and the National

Into April we roll and there are only 7 or 8 Premier League matches for us to enjoy before we have to succumb to other sports over the summer months. The weekend had a small impact on the league, with Chelsea dropping points, Southampton claiming a huge win and Wigan shaping up to form another great escape. QPR now look resigned to the Championship after their 3-2 loss at Fulham made them 1.11 for the drop, only behind Reading who now sit 1.06 after their defeat at the Emirates. The top four race continues to enthrall and Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal now sit within 4 points of each other, while Arsenal and Chelsea have a crucial game in hand. Chelsea and Spurs still need to play each other but due to the former's triumph in the FA cup that game will now be pushed back, meaning Spurs will have a potentially crucial free week allowing for a much needed rest for their squad. Spurs were the big winners over the weekend as they moved up to third and the market readjusted to make them 1.76 for a top four finish.

Looking at the fixtures over April you would have to look at opposing Chelsea in every way. They potentially face 8 fixtures throughout April, possibly more if they progress in the Europa League, and Benitez looks to be prioritising the cup competitions over the league, as was the case with Di Matteo last season. I backed Arsenal for the top 3 last week at 4.4 (now 3.3), but you can lay Chelsea for the top 3 at 2.34 or even the top 4 at 1.49 if you wish. Incidentally, Arsenal could also benefit from United winning the title quickly, as it might take United's edge off their fixture at the Emirates at the end of April. At this stage of the season it is tempting to force bets, in an attempt to make more money before the season finishes, particularly as I am not on track to reach my profit target. It is clear however that doing this could jeapardise the profits I already have and a large amount of discipline is necessary here to resist rising greed.

Elsewhere we have the Grand National this Saturday which I will be attending as usual, I just hope the weather picks up before then! Unfortunately this is not an occasion which bookmakers offer free bets as they do not feel as if they need to, while some even withdraw or reduce their sign up bonus, meaning I will have to be digging into my pocket to pay for my punts. I know little about horses as it is and the National is renowned for being a lottery, so I won't bother trying to 'analyse' the race and give you all my 'tips'. If you are interested however, I'm going for Colbert Station at around 15/1. He's a dead cert ; )

Enjoy the race and I hope some of you get lucky. Fingers crossed for no more snow.

A bookmaker review

I was reading The Portfolio Investor's blog the other day and he was talking about a few smaller bookmakers and the necessity to treat them with caution. Over the last year or so due to personal research and a lot of matched betting I have come to use and experience a number of bookmakers, both mainstream and non-mainstream, so I thought I would do a small review based on my experiences for people perhaps looking to open new accounts. I accept this is a subjective post and people may disagree with some of the things I say, but I reiterate this is just a review based on my personal experiences.

Firstly there is what I consider to be the mainstream bookies. These are the ones who I see as the market leaders in the UK, through both their street and/or online presence. Some might disagree but personally I see these as being: William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet365, Coral, PaddyPower and Betfred. Bet365 has no high street betting shops to my knowledge, while PaddyPower has a few scattered mainly in the North of England and in Ireland, but the majority of their work is based around online betting. The other four neatly juggle online and street bookmaking to provide a good all-round service. I have had quite a lot of experience with each of these bookmakers, mainly online, and they typically offer the same sound service across the board. My personal favourite is Bet365 as they have exceptional customer service and frequently offer the biggest offers and free bets. They also have an extremely attractive £200 sign up bonus, as well as a £50 mobile bonus. The others all have little features which make them individual and worth having an account with, for example PaddyPower and Coral have a number of novelty bets and enhanced odds offers, while William Hill has the 'Priority Prices' which is their version of enhanced odds. Overall I have very little bad things to say about these bookmakers, although others may have issues with their staking restrictions. I do not really stake big enough bets with bookmakers for this to affect me however.

Secondly we have what I consider to be the second tier bookmakers. These are generally the ones we hear a decent amount about through their marketing campaigns or advertising at sporting events, but do not rank as highly as those above, for various reasons. I consider these to be: Sporting Bet, Bet Victor, Stan James, Blue Square, Boylesports, Sky Bet. These bookies I would not regularly place bets with as they offer nothing too dissimilar from those above, but it is still worth having an account with each of them as they will frequently offer free bets for big sporting events. Sky Bet offer a unique sign up bonus which offers the user a weekly free bet if they stake a certain amount each week, while Bet Victor is notable for its range of bets offered, particularly the popular Man of the Match markets. Unfortunately I have had bad experiences with Sporting Bet and I know I am not alone with this. They appear to have a reputation for finding ways to not pay out free bets and offers, and I have also known them to withdraw offers mid-flow (as they are entitled to do, of course, but it does not do much for their PR). I have also been on the receiving end of poor customer service (accused of 'abusing' their system after placing a few bets) and as a result I tend not to bet with them as much as I can. I do not have any bad things to say about the others listed, only that I know some people have complained that Stan James are very quick to shut down people who win large amounts, so they are not very good from an arbing perspective.

Lastly is the 'best of the rest', which basically means all of the other bookmakers I have accounts with which don't qualify for the above categories. There are loads more in the world with differing quality but I cannot comment on these as I haven't had any dealings with them. I will give a brief summary of those I have used before:

Bwin: A decent online service which I have encountered no problems with. Not exceptionally attractive odds however.

118Bet: One of my favourites from this category. A large £50 sign up offer and a very simple interface.

888Sport: Main feature appears to be poker and casino but still offers a decent sportsbook.

SetantaBet: Rather poor odds and only £10 sign up offer.

TitanBet: Fairly easy to use, good customer support.

Bet770: One of my least favourites. A good £70 sign-up offer but poor odds and you need to send copies of drivers licence and bank cards before withdrawing. Also have a tendency to ring your house even if you don't disclose your home number.

UniBet: Another of my favourites. Everything is plain and simple, excellent customer service and decent odds.

ApolloBet: Same company as Setanta I believe, so they use the same poor odds. Smooth customer service however.

SeanieMac: Used to be same company as Apollo/Setanta but have recently been taken over by Boylesports I believe. Currently have an inactive sportsbook and I have £40 irretrievable in the account, though apparently they will be up and running soon.

10Bet: Huge sign up offer of up to £200, but equally huge rollover requirements come with it. Apart from that though it is a decent sportsbook.

Bet-At-Home: Diabolical odds and poor interface.

BetInternet: Fairly sound website, simple to use.

32Red: Not primarily a sportsbook and it shows. Confusing 'Wallet' system in your account and site is centred around the casino.

That is just about it from my own records. There are a couple of extras from the exchanges: Betfair and Betdaq but I don't really see the point in them. They seem easy to use but it seems slightly stupid to me that they, particularly Betfair, have a separate sportsbook when they are primarily an exchange. To their target market, the people who know Betfair as a 'confusing exchange', becoming a sportsbook AS WELL is not going to solve matters massively I do not think, rather it will confuse the masses. Lastly, Pinnacle is an online bookmaker which I think many of you will argue should be in the top bracket, particularly arbers, due to its highly competitive odds. I have not had a great deal of experience with it but it does strike me as being for the more serious bettor, rather than for punters, so I will leave it up to you as to where you place this one.

No doubt everyone has had varied experiences with each bookie and I would be interested to know these, so please let me know in the comments. I'd just like to mention a new company which I have also  recently been looking into: 'Bet Butler'. This seems like quite a good idea overall and useful to the casual punter. For serious bettors I can't see any reason why you would pay 3% on your winnings bets if you have multiple betting accounts anyway, that is just lazy! But for the casual punter, it will probably win you more than you lose in the long run.

Market Madness

So Harry couldn't forge a great escape this week and now finds his team 7 points off safety with just 8 games to go. Defeat to Villa saw QPR's pre-match relegation price of 1.54 plummet to 1.23, while Villa flew back out to 3.05 in this everlasting merry-go-round. The optimists will say there is still time for QPR, and indeed Reading (1.09 for the drop), to escape the bank-busting relegation and many still find themselves in disbelief that a club who has spent so much money are in such a bad position. They are now in serious trouble however and games are running out, the lay at 1.22 is now far less appealing than it was a few months ago and I believe people would be best keeping clear. Slightly further up and there are some very interesting prices with Southampton and Sunderland both sitting 4 points clear of the drop, though it will be only 1 point if Wigan win their game in hand. At present the Southampton price to go down is 8.8 while Sunderland, on the same points and with a better goal difference, are at 4.4. It could be argued that Sunderland have a more difficult run-in, with games against Man United, Chelsea, Spurs and Everton to come, but with quality players such as Steven Fletcher and Seb Larsson at their disposal I find it hard to see why there is such a big gap between the two prices.

Further up the table and Fulham were the obvious winners in the race for the top 10 with their victory away at Spurs, while Newcastle have a right to feel aggrieved after their loss to Wigan. Fulham are now the front runners for the 10th placed spot at odds of 2.3, with Stoke coming up the rear at 3.7.

Higher up is where it is really beginning to get interesting though and the last 10 days have seen huge fluctuations in the top 6 and top 4 markets. In my previous post I noted Spurs were 1.43 for the top 4 finish, while 9 days ago I highlighted how the markets had Liverpool at 1.49 for the top 6. After defeat at Southampton and Everton's win against Man City, Everton now find themselves 1.85 favourites on Merseyside, while Liverpool have drifted out to 2.02. Similarly, after losing back-to-back games including a poor home defeat against Fulham, Spurs have drifted right out to 2.08 for the top 4 and are still drifting! Arsenal are now 1.82 to rob their North London friends of the Champions League place despite being four points behind with a game in hand. 

There is certainly some serious money to be made at this time of year as prices can change a lot more than they would during the middle of the season, for obvious reasons. Needless to say however, that with greater opportunity comes greater risk. I was lucky enough to have layed Spurs for the top 4 last week, but then I unfortunately had layed  QPR to go down, so swings and roundabouts. It's just about finding the right ones. 

I'll leave you with a stat which I have only just noticed (sorry if this is old news to you) - QPR have not been higher than 18th at ANY STAGE this season. Absolutely abysmal.

Drab TV

Good morning sports fans, I hope you've all recovered after another brilliant Cheltenham festival. It really got me in the mood for racing and I can't wait to go to the National in a few weeks now! From a profit perspective I did well, mainly through the help of Bonus Bagging, and made around £150 matched betting the various offers and enhancements going around. I only had a couple of real bets and they both lost, therefore showing the reason I don't tend to bet on horses! The fun doesn't end here for sports lovers though as we have a big couple of months coming up with the return of F1, the Six Nations, the conclusion of the football season, the snooker world championship, the Masters, Aintree and more. Unfortunately from a football perspective, ESPN and SkySports have picked a poor schedule this weekend when I personally feel there are much more exciting games on. United-Reading, while I am sure it might attract a big audience, is not a very appealing game and the same fixture was on TV a few weeks ago in the FA Cup. I'm sure neutrals would much rather watch Swansea-Arsenal or Villa-QPR to be honest. Tomorrow Sky have Sunderland-Norwich on for some completely bizarre reason, having already shown the reverse fixture earlier in the season.

The aforementioned Villa-QPR match is the obvious big one this weekend and could have a massive impact on the relegation markets. Villa (currently 2.3 for the drop) will climb to 30 points with a win, 6 points off the drop with Wigan having 2 in hand, and you would have to feel that this would leave QPR (currently 1.54 for the drop) in a very poor position. A win for the Hoops would of course mean a complete reverse and would leave them a point behind Villa, but surely Harry can't pull off three victories in a row, surely? Keep an eye on Southampton though, a loss today and wins for Villa and Wigan (at home to Newcastle tomorrow) would put them one point clear of relegation, and they have some tough matches to come. The price of 3.95 on them to go down could soon evaporate. Elsewhere, Arsenal can apply the pressure on what must be a fatigued Spurs for the fourth place spot (though it is currently occupied by Chelsea), by winning away at Swansea. You can currently lay Spurs at 1.43 if you think they will falter between now and the end of the season, and this is a price I have taken. I think they still will finish in the top 4 and I hope they do too, but I think it will be close as Arsenal have a much favourable run-in and nothing else to worry about.

Up at the top City need to win today at Everton to have any chance of the title. Although Everton have been faltering recently it is still a tough place to go and big teams often struggle there. I do feel however that United's season is in a vulnerable position at the moment, despite their big lead at the top. They are out of one cup and threw away a good lead in another, and I think they desperately need a win today before the international break. Anything other than a win and those little demons might just creep into their minds. They are available to lay at 1.06 if you think this is likely.

Enjoy your weekend.

Cheltenham Bonus Bagging

The weekend was a big one for the relegation scrap, and it is so tight down there that it looks as though it will be like this for the remaining 9 game weeks. Wins for Villa and QPR saw a shift in relegation odds, while the markets now appear to have written Reading off completely, despite their burst of form at the start of 2013. Reading are now 1.13 to go down, while Villa have climbed to 2.3. QPR's win did little in terms of jumping out of the relegation zone, as Villa's win ensured they are still four points adrift, and this was perhaps noticed by the markets which readjusted to make QPR 1.57 for the drop, despite initially jumping to 1.7+ immediately after their victory. Their victory over Sunderland was of course crucial however, and if they can carry this form into the upcoming relegation 6-pointers then they should stand a good chance. Elsewhere in the table, Spurs lost at Anfield and drifted to 1.44 for a top 4 spot, despite the four teams around them not playing. Liverpool, every markets friend, are now 1.49 to finish in the top 6, despite being level on points with Everton, who have a game in hand.

The big news this week will no doubt come from Cheltenham, and the bookies are doing their best to come out on top with the best offers. This is a good time to remind everyone about the extremely successful and profitable matched betting service 'Bonus Bagging', available for just £27. I should note I don't tend to do sales pitches, and I am not in anyway involved with this service other than on a consumer level, but it is the only service which has consistently earned me money and everyone really should be a member. My email account has been going crazy this week as Mike, 'Mr BonusBagging', has been carefully sorting through all the free bets and offers available to ensure Cheltenham is a profitable festival. Many of the offers available take work well over my mathematical knowledge to become profitable, but Mike produces video and written guides as well as spreadsheets and calculators to make each one as easy as possible. Whether you use these profits to fund your Cheltenham bank or just for some extra cash, it is really a no brainer.

Enjoy the festival.

The world goes on

Last night in Manchester was predictably dramatic, albeit slightly tarnished as a spectacle. There are plenty of unbalanced opinions doing the rounds at the moment, so I won't add mine. It is a bad year for English football however, with potentially no teams in the quarter finals (unless Arsenal can produce something incredible) since 1996, and that is a shame considering we have some very good sides this year, as well as the holders. The Betfair market Champions League winner market is currently suspended, but the bookies have Madrid as favourites at around 3.5, and I'm sure Munich's price of 4.2 won't last a great deal longer. It will depend on the draw, and whether Barca can pull their tie back.

Back to the Premier League and QPR continue to be unpredictable in their campaign for safety. They have been matched as low as 1.15 and as high as 7.8 throughout the season, but their victory away at Southampton has put them four points adrift of safety, and they are back out to 1.37 for the drop. This week they have a winnable game at home to Sunderland, while Villa and Reading play each other and Wigan play in the Cup. I would like to say that if they lose this weekend and there is a victor in the Villa-Reading match then it really is over for QPR, but there is just no telling. There are 10 games to go and this is more than enough in a relegation battle where 2 wins on the bounce take you out of trouble.

The race for the top 10 is hotting up nicely as well. Swansea and West Brom, you would think, have 8th and 9th sown up, which leaves 10th spot for feasibly any team down as far as Southampton. Six points separate 16th and 10th and a little run for any of these teams could secure a top 10 spot. Stoke are the favourites to take this place at 2.84, while the current 10th placed team Fulham are second favourites at 3.4. At the moment goal difference is separating Fulham, Stoke and West Ham, and a race as close as this could come down to such fine margins on the last day. I wouldn't like to call this one, so I will stick with my pre-season pick of Fulham.

Further up the table and if the markets are anything to go by, then the race for the top 4 is all but done. Spurs' huge victory over Arsenal at the weekend saw them shorten to 1.33, their lowest price of the season, while Arsenal are out to 3.25. Chelsea are at 1.26, despite sitting in 4th place currently. Like most things however, I still feel this has a long way to go and the 5 point gap between Arsenal and Chelsea is not insurmountable. Tottenham have the toughest fixture list out of the three, playing Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea and Man City in the next month or so, along with a 2-legged tie against Inter Milan. It is advantage Spurs at the moment but a lay at 1.33 would not be the worst decision in the world, the main difficulty would be how well Arsenal could put the pressure on. If, like me, Arsenal do not fill you with hope but you still think Spurs will drop some points, then backing Chelsea to finish top 3 at 1.96 could be a more appealing option.

At the top United appear to be running away with things. 1.05 for the title and with a 12 point lead it is hard to disagree with that price. I would not go as far to say it is over, but it is looking good for Fergi and co, and I decided to take a big loss on my lay of United to win, rather than let it run. If United lose to Chelsea on Sunday then we might see a small amount of panic creep in, but it is difficult to see them losing such a lead, regardless of what happened last year. Man City are at 21 to win the title incidentally.

We are into the final stretch of games once more, yet it only seems like yesterday I was preparing some preseason trades. How time flies. Cheltenham starts next week and I will be looking to take advantage of a few bookie offers, while also enjoying the festival. Keep your eyes peeled for free bets because there are normally a fair few about, with a potential to win decent amounts. Good luck with your bets and enjoy.