Monday, 18 June 2012

Italian break

I have just come back from a weekend trip to Rome, and have just caught up with all the weekend's action. I did managed to catch the England and France games, as well as bits of the others, but not enough to give me my fix. From what I have seen, Portugal have made the most ground in the last round of fixtures, and Russia were the disaster story. I was pretty angry to see Russia not even qualify from such a strong position, as otherwise I think my accumulator had a very strong chance of winning. Although saying that, if you are going to bet at 21/1 you will get burnt, so I am not going to lament for too long, and hopefully France will top the group tomorrow and I will get a free bet refund. As I said in my previous post, my bets are all over the place at the moment and it is difficult to keep up with them all, even though I have them all logged! A few bets have been settled but I think I will post a P+L of them all after the group stages are over with. In my bet on France/England in a straight forecast at odds of 5, I decided to trade out at 2.34 for £20 all round so that I can enjoy tomorrow's games in peace.

In terms of new betting opportunities arriving, the aforementioned Portuguese and Germany are looking the strongest candidates for a 'value' bet. The Spanish are still joint favourites after their underwhelming match tonight, but I still don't feel like backing them. It is a difficult situation because the Spanish after playing boringly yet effectively, and are getting the job done quietly, just as they did two years ago at the World Cup. The problem is that their performances lack oomph and I can't see that too many people will be particularly excited by the prospect of watching or backing them at the moment. The Germans are the complete opposite and, whilst it lingers in my mind that they may come down with a bang, I have decided to back them at 3.4 for £50, in the hope that they will smash Greece and I can trade out for a free bet on Germany. Portugal look attractive at 9s with their quarter final against the Czechs their first port of call, one which I would expect them to win, but they have the problem of potentially facing Spain in the semis, something which I feel could hold the market back from shortening Portugal to a price worth the effort. Apart from that, there isn't much else to look at at the moment, Gomez looks good for the golden boot but the price isn't really great and I question whether Germany would take him off for Klose if they were struggling and needed a goal late on.

Away from football, this week sees the start of Royal Ascot as I am sure you are all aware of, and of course throws up the opportunity for Mike at Bonus Bagging to root through all of the bookmakers and give us the best offers. So far it has been a bit empty on the free bets side as the bookies look to be a bit knackered out from the Euros, but Sporting Bet are doing a fantastic offer which should see me be able to lock in around £60. On mobile only, they are giving you a £20 free bet EVERY DAY when you stake £20 on one of the races each day, meaning a potential £100 in free bets. Brilliant offer. I began to wonder whether the bookies got annoyed at people who blogged or wrote about matched betting as they don't want people to use their free bets in this way, but then I realised that it doesn't really matter for them as I will more than likely lose money to them, whilst winning my money on Betfair. I will be backing long odds horses in order to maximise the free bet, meaning that Sporting Bet will probably get most of my £100, whilst my profit will emerge in my Betfair account. It must be the only scenario in which everyone is a winner: Sporting Bet get my stakes, Betfair get my commission, and I get my profit overall. I'll keep my eyes peeled for other offers but there doesn't seem to be too many about at the moment.

Tomorrow should be a good day with Frankel racing and England playing, so I hope you all enjoy it and make a buck or two along the way.

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