Saturday, 19 May 2012

Managerial Problems

The biggest news this week has been the managerial dogfights between each of the managerless clubs, and I have been trying to take advantage of it. Ordinarily I would never bet on these markets, due to it being nothing but pure speculation usually, but my interest was peaked a couple of days ago as a news story was released on Twitter (by, so thanks to them for that) that Roberto Martinez had been given permission to talk to Liverpool. The price was about 6.5 for him to be next Liverpool manager when I checked, but it was naturally dropping fast. I managed to get £133 on at average odds of 5.668 before they were chopped down to 2s. At this point I was loving life but I didn't really know at what time I should trade out. I'm not too experienced in these markets so I wasn't quite sure at what point the odds would stop shortening, and to my detriment I left it slightly too long. The odds went as low as around 2.16 and I had the chance to trade out there, but I let it go slightly too long and they began to bounce back up again, presumably because all the people who got on him at high odds were now trading out. I became slightly unnerved by the drift and took a higher price of around 2.84, leaving me with a tidy £108 on each outcome. It could have been more but for a one off trade that really isn't too bad. I will know more about the market next time and will make more.

Buoyed by the Martinez success however, I decided to put some money on Solskjaer to become the Villa manager when he was sitting at 1.9, after hearing a few reports that he was on the radar. This time however, I made the fatal error of not trading out when it hit 1.5, as I thought that if he had taken the time to come all the way to England, surely he must be pretty interested? Well, that isn't how it panned out and there was a lot of pure speculation flying around, making it difficult for anyone to know the true story. I panicked somewhat, and attempted to reverse the trade when the odds went above evens, leaving liability on Ole, rather than backing him. The odds bounced about and I got into a real mess really, backing and laying all over the place, until a couple of hours ago when it was said that he was staying at Molde, and I layed him at around 4 before he flew up to 10s. Due to the messing about beforehand though, this didn't leave me with any profit, just a break even scenario on each side, but to be honest I was just thankful to get my money out of that hellhole. I was very lucky on this occasion to come out of it unscathed, so next time I will know not to mess about in those situations. I had the ton from Martinez and I will settle with that.

The past couple of days have shown both the positive and negative sides of Twitter as a tool for trading. In some cases it can be extremely handy, as shown with the Martinez case, and if you're quick enough you can get your bets in before the market reacts properly, although it is very hard. On the other hand though, it can be extremely volatile. Rumours bounce around at a stupid rate, and although you just have to follow those who are 'in the know' i.e. the top journalists not Tom, Dick or Harry, it is hard to not let your opinion be influenced by a vast amount of similar rumours. It is tough, but it is something that can be effective if you can balance it correctly. As I said before I won't be having any bets today, just going to sit back and enjoy the ride. And also a nice appearance from Frankel to top it off.

Enjoy your weekend.

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