Friday, 8 February 2013

A review of the odds

So here we are in February 2013 and the Premier League is entering its final third of the season. January transfers are all done with, meaning it is now just a desperate dash to the finish. Throughout the league, each point of contention is very tight and there seems to be many teams chasing each position.

Starting at the top then, the hunt for the Premier League crown unusually seems to be the least contentious area of the league, at least if the markets are anything to go by. Manchester United sit 9 points clear of their closest rivals with just 13 games remaining, and are currently as low as 1.15 to win the title. At present, this does seen a relatively fair price for a team who have obliterated all in their path thus far, while their noisy neighbours have struggled to live up to last years heights. As I alluded to in my last post however, football is a funny old game and momentum can shift in an instant. One poor result or injury can destroy a team and make people wonder why they never layed them while they had the chance. The majority of the country had proclaimed United champions last year before a shock loss against Wigan sparked a collapse at the crucial moment. I do think United will win this year, and I don't envisage a collapse like last season, but there is a long way to go yet and I expect City to close the gap in the next few months. Just think what a battering at the hands of Madrid could do to United's run...

Moving on and Spurs are now odds on at 1.95 to finish in the top four, as their good form is finally beginning to convince the markets that they might actually be able to qualify for Europe. The top 10 market is currently a bit unpredictable, as there are only 9 points between Liverpool in 7th and Newcastle in 15th, meaning any number of teams are still in with a shout. Newcastle, remarkably considering how much criticism they have had this year, are now only 3 points from the top 10, and sit at 3.4 for a top 10 finish. Their squad has had a bit of a French Revolution and they look a lot stronger than in the first half of the season, 3.4 could be a steal come May. Fulham are only 2 points off, yet are a large 4.4 to reach the top ten, with Sunderland 2.88, despite being just a point off the top half.

Down at the bottom and the woes of QPR continue. It is getting to the stage now when all the 'they can't possibly go down' people are beginning to think that actually they might, including me. They need to start scoring goals quickly and turning these draws into wins. I have a large position on QPR not to go down, but I am beginning to believe I might have to take a loss on the trade in the next few weeks. They currently sit 1.47, while there are three other odds-on teams for the drop: Wigan, Reading and Villa. The resurgent Southampton are currently 3.4.

That's all from me, enjoy your weekend and stay green.

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