The Premier League winners market 2013/14

As I write the title I am a little shock to see I am writing '13/14', where does time go?! I still think back to the seasons of 00/01/02 as being yesteryear but it really isn't anymore. Anyway, enough inane tittle and on to the most important topic of the season: who will win the Premier League?

The summer seems to have been a manager's summer, and unusually each team has a new boss going into the new season. This creates something of a problem for bettors as it means we are entering something of an unknown. That being said however, I do think that a more than necessary emphasis has been placed upon the three incoming managers and it is going to be more down to the players on this occasion. Of course there is also the added difficulty of the season beginning before the transfer window slams shut and there are still some big names to decide on their futures. Regardless, here is what I think at this moment in time:

Manchester City have gone about their summer dealings uncharacteristically quietly and sensibly. It appears to be a Pellegrini-effect as he has chosen to keep below radar in his first months in charge. Problem characters such as Tevez and Balotelli have been discarded and the squad has silently and carefully rebuilt following their disappointment last season. This does not mean they haven't spent a great deal of money however - adding the likes of Navas, Negredo, Fernandinho and others for hefty fees. I imagine it will be a completely different looking City and one which operates a lot more functionally and organised. Last season they had the best defence in the league and barring the injury to Nastasic there is no reason they cannot continue that into this year. Odds on City to record the most clean sheets are not amazingly appealing at evens with Paddypower, but possibly worth a consideration when you look at the frailties in United and Chelsea's defences. The focus over the summer has been bolstering the attack and in Alvaro Negredo they have a proven goalscorer. Whether he will start ahead of Aguero often enough is difficult to call, but 28/1 with Sportingbet for Negredo to be top scorer is certainly tempting, especially considering he bagged 31 in 42 last year with Sevilla. Going into the opening match City are favourites for the title at 3.2 on Betfair, and overall that looks like a sensible price-up. They have the experience of winning a title in recent years and will be a lot more disciplined and focused this season.

The Special One is back at Chelsea and is making a particular noise with the Wayne Rooney saga. It strikes me that Chelsea have been very clever in their dealings with Rooney and have royally stitched United up. Undoubtedly Mourinho wants the player and if he gets him it will be an almighty blow to both Moyes and United, and Chelsea's title hopes would likely increase somewhat, but even if he does not succeed Rooney has created a situation where the United fans are now against him and he is 'stuck' in a team he does not want to play in. The irony of it all that he asked for greater players to be signed at the club, only to fall behind Van Persie in the pecking order and get the hump. Moving on from Rooney however, as we cannot really factor in things we do not know the outcome of yet, and Chelsea appear to be slightly overpriced in my view due to the Mourinho effect. They have signed decent players in Schurrle and Van Ginkel, and will certainly benefit from the return of Lukaku, but apart from that they appear to have a similar squad to last year but with some of the spine of the team a year older. They finished 14 points off United last season and that number probably would have been larger had United not had the title done weeks before the end (therefore playing with less interest vs Chelsea at Old Trafford in the 0-1 defeat), leading me to believe there is not a great deal of value in their odds of 3.35 at the moment. Of slightly more interest is the 24/1 available on Lukaku to be top scorer with various bookies, along with Mata to record top assists at 11/1 with Boylesports.

Manchester United are certainly an enigma this season following the retirement of their leader over the last double decade and more. They trounced the league last year but it will certainly not be quite so easy this year, and they begin the season perhaps somewhat unfairly as third favourites at 3.9. They have the same team as last year, with the possible exception of Rooney if he does leave the club, but presumably the assumption is that the lack of imported talent has meant that the other two have caught up somewhat and even overtaken the champions. While I agree that United should have already strengthened their squad as there are particular obvious areas of weakness, I cannot see that Chelsea have made enough of a step up to overtake United as second favourites. Should Rooney leave for Chelsea however, then that would change matters completely, and perhaps the market is as it is because it has already anticipated this move. I think it is unlikely Moyes will end the transfer season without adding a name to his squad, though it might not be the big-name player he so craves, meaning the purchase is likely to be Everton-sourced. The lack of a new playmaker and the possible departure of Rooney could mean an increased role for the talented Kagawa, who showed great promise last season despite spending most of his time on the bench. As an outside shot, he can be got at 21/1 to record the most assists this season with Paddypower. I think United are going to be very prone to market over-reactions this year given the departure of Ferguson and the unknown which surrounds Moyes. A bad run could see them drift out massively so I would advise waiting to see how they get on before backing them, therefore possibly grabbing much longer odds. The 'top 3' market should also be closely observed as United are already at 1.47 and could push out even further making for a tasty trade. It is unlikely that an unchanged Arsenal side (currently 4th favs for top 3) is going to outperform an unchanged United team in my opinion, but who knows.

One thing I am sure of; regardless of where Luis Suarez or Gareth Bale ends up these three teams will be the only ones seriously challenging for the Premier League title. Spurs and Arsenal have good squads but miles away from the title winning squads they need. As for which of the three will take the title, I do not know! Last season I made the mistake of laying United when they were out in front and I took one of my biggest losses of the season on them when they triumphed with ease. In truth, I hated laying United as a United fan, as I found myself caught in two minds and wasn't able to just bask in the glory I should have been enjoying, so maybe this year I will consider if it is really worth it.

Over the last two seasons a successful market has been the straight forecast, although this year the odds are a lot more appealing, though of course a lot more difficult to predict! For the best value I would currently look to Man City 1st/ United 2nd at 8.4 as it will probably trade lower throughout the season, especially if United beat Chelsea early on at Old Trafford.

This season will chop and change, there will be plenty of trading opportunities in this market, it will just be all about picking the right moments. I can't wait.

End of a very long era

The big news this week has obviously been Sir Alex's retirement and tributes have been flooding in from all around the globe as English football's most successful manager of all time is hanging up his hairdryer at the age of 71. I don't know if we will ever see a manager quite like him and it will be very sad to see him go, particularly as I have not been alive long enough to have ever seen anyone else manage Manchester United. I'm sure he doesn't need me to tell how good he is though so we will have a look at what this has done to the markets instead, along with the news that David Moyes will have the horrendously difficult task of succeeding the Great Man.

The United share price was reported to have dropped 5% after Ferguson's news hit the stock exchange, before recovering by the end of the week to finish around what it started the week as. Although the Betfair markets have been more ruthless and unforgiving to United's title hopes next season, we did see the price shorten a small amount after Moyes' appointment. I can't help but think that the praise and support he is being given by the majority of the media is having some impact upon this, as people are beginning to realise that possibly losing Ferguson is not the worst thing in the world. It is difficult to see what impact the 'Rooney out' stories are having on this price but I don't believe it would make too much of a difference unless he was sold to a Premier League club. As I write, City and United both sit on 3.1 for the title next season in a market which was only opened a few weeks ago by Betfair. United have been matched as low as 2 and as high as 3.25, with the latter during this tumultuous week. City, who started the week around 3.45 were backed into 2.7 before drifting back out to their current price.

It is Chelsea though who have been the biggest movers due to the Mourinho chat/Ferguson's departure/Moyes installment (ie not Mourinho)/Almost definitely securing their top 3 place. They are in from a high of 5.8 to 3.85 now, having been matched as low as 3.55 during this week. Needless to say the market already has this down as a three-horse race.


It would be interesting to see what the loss of Moyes has done to Everton's perceived hopes next season but there isn't really any data to show this so far. Sky Bet go 2/1 that they will finish top 6 next season but I have nothing to compare this to as I do not know the price before this week. One thing which has been affected for Everton is the potential loss of their top players and those of you who follow me on Twitter would have seen I tweeted Coral had Baines to go to United before September at a huge 16/1, before quickly altering this to 2/1. Luckily I was able to have a small dabble of £10 at the 16/1 price, although I normally don't get involved in markets like this I knew the price was not an accurate reflection of the situation and jumped on it accordingly.

Overall it is clear that the prices I am quoting now will not be the same by the season opener as there is still so much to be resolved. Chelsea and City look to be changing their managers and I imagine they and United will be spending big this summer too. The Rooney situation is unresolved and should he go to City or Chelsea it would really shake things up.

For now though, we should just savour the end of a brilliant career as Sir Alex bows out in style.

Drab TV

Good morning sports fans, I hope you've all recovered after another brilliant Cheltenham festival. It really got me in the mood for racing and I can't wait to go to the National in a few weeks now! From a profit perspective I did well, mainly through the help of Bonus Bagging, and made around £150 matched betting the various offers and enhancements going around. I only had a couple of real bets and they both lost, therefore showing the reason I don't tend to bet on horses! The fun doesn't end here for sports lovers though as we have a big couple of months coming up with the return of F1, the Six Nations, the conclusion of the football season, the snooker world championship, the Masters, Aintree and more. Unfortunately from a football perspective, ESPN and SkySports have picked a poor schedule this weekend when I personally feel there are much more exciting games on. United-Reading, while I am sure it might attract a big audience, is not a very appealing game and the same fixture was on TV a few weeks ago in the FA Cup. I'm sure neutrals would much rather watch Swansea-Arsenal or Villa-QPR to be honest. Tomorrow Sky have Sunderland-Norwich on for some completely bizarre reason, having already shown the reverse fixture earlier in the season.

The aforementioned Villa-QPR match is the obvious big one this weekend and could have a massive impact on the relegation markets. Villa (currently 2.3 for the drop) will climb to 30 points with a win, 6 points off the drop with Wigan having 2 in hand, and you would have to feel that this would leave QPR (currently 1.54 for the drop) in a very poor position. A win for the Hoops would of course mean a complete reverse and would leave them a point behind Villa, but surely Harry can't pull off three victories in a row, surely? Keep an eye on Southampton though, a loss today and wins for Villa and Wigan (at home to Newcastle tomorrow) would put them one point clear of relegation, and they have some tough matches to come. The price of 3.95 on them to go down could soon evaporate. Elsewhere, Arsenal can apply the pressure on what must be a fatigued Spurs for the fourth place spot (though it is currently occupied by Chelsea), by winning away at Swansea. You can currently lay Spurs at 1.43 if you think they will falter between now and the end of the season, and this is a price I have taken. I think they still will finish in the top 4 and I hope they do too, but I think it will be close as Arsenal have a much favourable run-in and nothing else to worry about.

Up at the top City need to win today at Everton to have any chance of the title. Although Everton have been faltering recently it is still a tough place to go and big teams often struggle there. I do feel however that United's season is in a vulnerable position at the moment, despite their big lead at the top. They are out of one cup and threw away a good lead in another, and I think they desperately need a win today before the international break. Anything other than a win and those little demons might just creep into their minds. They are available to lay at 1.06 if you think this is likely.

Enjoy your weekend.

The world goes on

Last night in Manchester was predictably dramatic, albeit slightly tarnished as a spectacle. There are plenty of unbalanced opinions doing the rounds at the moment, so I won't add mine. It is a bad year for English football however, with potentially no teams in the quarter finals (unless Arsenal can produce something incredible) since 1996, and that is a shame considering we have some very good sides this year, as well as the holders. The Betfair market Champions League winner market is currently suspended, but the bookies have Madrid as favourites at around 3.5, and I'm sure Munich's price of 4.2 won't last a great deal longer. It will depend on the draw, and whether Barca can pull their tie back.

Back to the Premier League and QPR continue to be unpredictable in their campaign for safety. They have been matched as low as 1.15 and as high as 7.8 throughout the season, but their victory away at Southampton has put them four points adrift of safety, and they are back out to 1.37 for the drop. This week they have a winnable game at home to Sunderland, while Villa and Reading play each other and Wigan play in the Cup. I would like to say that if they lose this weekend and there is a victor in the Villa-Reading match then it really is over for QPR, but there is just no telling. There are 10 games to go and this is more than enough in a relegation battle where 2 wins on the bounce take you out of trouble.

The race for the top 10 is hotting up nicely as well. Swansea and West Brom, you would think, have 8th and 9th sown up, which leaves 10th spot for feasibly any team down as far as Southampton. Six points separate 16th and 10th and a little run for any of these teams could secure a top 10 spot. Stoke are the favourites to take this place at 2.84, while the current 10th placed team Fulham are second favourites at 3.4. At the moment goal difference is separating Fulham, Stoke and West Ham, and a race as close as this could come down to such fine margins on the last day. I wouldn't like to call this one, so I will stick with my pre-season pick of Fulham.

Further up the table and if the markets are anything to go by, then the race for the top 4 is all but done. Spurs' huge victory over Arsenal at the weekend saw them shorten to 1.33, their lowest price of the season, while Arsenal are out to 3.25. Chelsea are at 1.26, despite sitting in 4th place currently. Like most things however, I still feel this has a long way to go and the 5 point gap between Arsenal and Chelsea is not insurmountable. Tottenham have the toughest fixture list out of the three, playing Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea and Man City in the next month or so, along with a 2-legged tie against Inter Milan. It is advantage Spurs at the moment but a lay at 1.33 would not be the worst decision in the world, the main difficulty would be how well Arsenal could put the pressure on. If, like me, Arsenal do not fill you with hope but you still think Spurs will drop some points, then backing Chelsea to finish top 3 at 1.96 could be a more appealing option.

At the top United appear to be running away with things. 1.05 for the title and with a 12 point lead it is hard to disagree with that price. I would not go as far to say it is over, but it is looking good for Fergi and co, and I decided to take a big loss on my lay of United to win, rather than let it run. If United lose to Chelsea on Sunday then we might see a small amount of panic creep in, but it is difficult to see them losing such a lead, regardless of what happened last year. Man City are at 21 to win the title incidentally.

We are into the final stretch of games once more, yet it only seems like yesterday I was preparing some preseason trades. How time flies. Cheltenham starts next week and I will be looking to take advantage of a few bookie offers, while also enjoying the festival. Keep your eyes peeled for free bets because there are normally a fair few about, with a potential to win decent amounts. Good luck with your bets and enjoy.

Ally Pally

My week has been dominated by the snooker as I had predicted, and it has been a firecracker so far. Comebacks from the big name players such as Robertson, Trump and Selby was the theme from the last 16,   and the top 5 in the world all made it to the quarter finals to make it a thrilling tournament in store. I had a little interest on the winners market by dutching the four favourites, so I was pleased to see them all come through (just about). I've layed off a bit of my liability now but the odds are all still fairly long because no big name has left the tournament yet. I also had a £5 bet on Murphy to win on the fixed odds market (to qualify for a free bet elsewhere) which I have partially layed off, hence the large liability on him:

Over in the football world, the biggest move of the week has been QPR's relegation odds. They did well to secure a point against Spurs, although I watched the match and must say they were abysmal on the attack, but their transfer activity, or at least the rumours surrounding them, have seen their odds jump from 1.55 to 1.65 for relegation without touching a ball. I topped up at 1.57 when I heard about Remy, and now M'Vila is rumoured although apparently he isn't too keen. 'Arry the wheeler dealer trying to work his magic once more. At the other end of the table, United and City got through their weekend unscathed, proving once again that this season is going to be all about them. United remain at 1.38 for the title, and I have now decided to get involved in laying United. They have a tough month or two to come, despite their big lead, as they will be focused on their huge matches with Real Madrid in February. 

Apart from that though I'm off to Ally Pally myself tomorrow, hopefully for a top day of snooker. Have a good day people, I leave you with a blatant lie from Old 'Arry: