The Premier League winners market 2013/14

As I write the title I am a little shock to see I am writing '13/14', where does time go?! I still think back to the seasons of 00/01/02 as being yesteryear but it really isn't anymore. Anyway, enough inane tittle and on to the most important topic of the season: who will win the Premier League?

The summer seems to have been a manager's summer, and unusually each team has a new boss going into the new season. This creates something of a problem for bettors as it means we are entering something of an unknown. That being said however, I do think that a more than necessary emphasis has been placed upon the three incoming managers and it is going to be more down to the players on this occasion. Of course there is also the added difficulty of the season beginning before the transfer window slams shut and there are still some big names to decide on their futures. Regardless, here is what I think at this moment in time:

Manchester City have gone about their summer dealings uncharacteristically quietly and sensibly. It appears to be a Pellegrini-effect as he has chosen to keep below radar in his first months in charge. Problem characters such as Tevez and Balotelli have been discarded and the squad has silently and carefully rebuilt following their disappointment last season. This does not mean they haven't spent a great deal of money however - adding the likes of Navas, Negredo, Fernandinho and others for hefty fees. I imagine it will be a completely different looking City and one which operates a lot more functionally and organised. Last season they had the best defence in the league and barring the injury to Nastasic there is no reason they cannot continue that into this year. Odds on City to record the most clean sheets are not amazingly appealing at evens with Paddypower, but possibly worth a consideration when you look at the frailties in United and Chelsea's defences. The focus over the summer has been bolstering the attack and in Alvaro Negredo they have a proven goalscorer. Whether he will start ahead of Aguero often enough is difficult to call, but 28/1 with Sportingbet for Negredo to be top scorer is certainly tempting, especially considering he bagged 31 in 42 last year with Sevilla. Going into the opening match City are favourites for the title at 3.2 on Betfair, and overall that looks like a sensible price-up. They have the experience of winning a title in recent years and will be a lot more disciplined and focused this season.

The Special One is back at Chelsea and is making a particular noise with the Wayne Rooney saga. It strikes me that Chelsea have been very clever in their dealings with Rooney and have royally stitched United up. Undoubtedly Mourinho wants the player and if he gets him it will be an almighty blow to both Moyes and United, and Chelsea's title hopes would likely increase somewhat, but even if he does not succeed Rooney has created a situation where the United fans are now against him and he is 'stuck' in a team he does not want to play in. The irony of it all that he asked for greater players to be signed at the club, only to fall behind Van Persie in the pecking order and get the hump. Moving on from Rooney however, as we cannot really factor in things we do not know the outcome of yet, and Chelsea appear to be slightly overpriced in my view due to the Mourinho effect. They have signed decent players in Schurrle and Van Ginkel, and will certainly benefit from the return of Lukaku, but apart from that they appear to have a similar squad to last year but with some of the spine of the team a year older. They finished 14 points off United last season and that number probably would have been larger had United not had the title done weeks before the end (therefore playing with less interest vs Chelsea at Old Trafford in the 0-1 defeat), leading me to believe there is not a great deal of value in their odds of 3.35 at the moment. Of slightly more interest is the 24/1 available on Lukaku to be top scorer with various bookies, along with Mata to record top assists at 11/1 with Boylesports.

Manchester United are certainly an enigma this season following the retirement of their leader over the last double decade and more. They trounced the league last year but it will certainly not be quite so easy this year, and they begin the season perhaps somewhat unfairly as third favourites at 3.9. They have the same team as last year, with the possible exception of Rooney if he does leave the club, but presumably the assumption is that the lack of imported talent has meant that the other two have caught up somewhat and even overtaken the champions. While I agree that United should have already strengthened their squad as there are particular obvious areas of weakness, I cannot see that Chelsea have made enough of a step up to overtake United as second favourites. Should Rooney leave for Chelsea however, then that would change matters completely, and perhaps the market is as it is because it has already anticipated this move. I think it is unlikely Moyes will end the transfer season without adding a name to his squad, though it might not be the big-name player he so craves, meaning the purchase is likely to be Everton-sourced. The lack of a new playmaker and the possible departure of Rooney could mean an increased role for the talented Kagawa, who showed great promise last season despite spending most of his time on the bench. As an outside shot, he can be got at 21/1 to record the most assists this season with Paddypower. I think United are going to be very prone to market over-reactions this year given the departure of Ferguson and the unknown which surrounds Moyes. A bad run could see them drift out massively so I would advise waiting to see how they get on before backing them, therefore possibly grabbing much longer odds. The 'top 3' market should also be closely observed as United are already at 1.47 and could push out even further making for a tasty trade. It is unlikely that an unchanged Arsenal side (currently 4th favs for top 3) is going to outperform an unchanged United team in my opinion, but who knows.

One thing I am sure of; regardless of where Luis Suarez or Gareth Bale ends up these three teams will be the only ones seriously challenging for the Premier League title. Spurs and Arsenal have good squads but miles away from the title winning squads they need. As for which of the three will take the title, I do not know! Last season I made the mistake of laying United when they were out in front and I took one of my biggest losses of the season on them when they triumphed with ease. In truth, I hated laying United as a United fan, as I found myself caught in two minds and wasn't able to just bask in the glory I should have been enjoying, so maybe this year I will consider if it is really worth it.

Over the last two seasons a successful market has been the straight forecast, although this year the odds are a lot more appealing, though of course a lot more difficult to predict! For the best value I would currently look to Man City 1st/ United 2nd at 8.4 as it will probably trade lower throughout the season, especially if United beat Chelsea early on at Old Trafford.

This season will chop and change, there will be plenty of trading opportunities in this market, it will just be all about picking the right moments. I can't wait.

End of a very long era

The big news this week has obviously been Sir Alex's retirement and tributes have been flooding in from all around the globe as English football's most successful manager of all time is hanging up his hairdryer at the age of 71. I don't know if we will ever see a manager quite like him and it will be very sad to see him go, particularly as I have not been alive long enough to have ever seen anyone else manage Manchester United. I'm sure he doesn't need me to tell how good he is though so we will have a look at what this has done to the markets instead, along with the news that David Moyes will have the horrendously difficult task of succeeding the Great Man.

The United share price was reported to have dropped 5% after Ferguson's news hit the stock exchange, before recovering by the end of the week to finish around what it started the week as. Although the Betfair markets have been more ruthless and unforgiving to United's title hopes next season, we did see the price shorten a small amount after Moyes' appointment. I can't help but think that the praise and support he is being given by the majority of the media is having some impact upon this, as people are beginning to realise that possibly losing Ferguson is not the worst thing in the world. It is difficult to see what impact the 'Rooney out' stories are having on this price but I don't believe it would make too much of a difference unless he was sold to a Premier League club. As I write, City and United both sit on 3.1 for the title next season in a market which was only opened a few weeks ago by Betfair. United have been matched as low as 2 and as high as 3.25, with the latter during this tumultuous week. City, who started the week around 3.45 were backed into 2.7 before drifting back out to their current price.

It is Chelsea though who have been the biggest movers due to the Mourinho chat/Ferguson's departure/Moyes installment (ie not Mourinho)/Almost definitely securing their top 3 place. They are in from a high of 5.8 to 3.85 now, having been matched as low as 3.55 during this week. Needless to say the market already has this down as a three-horse race.


It would be interesting to see what the loss of Moyes has done to Everton's perceived hopes next season but there isn't really any data to show this so far. Sky Bet go 2/1 that they will finish top 6 next season but I have nothing to compare this to as I do not know the price before this week. One thing which has been affected for Everton is the potential loss of their top players and those of you who follow me on Twitter would have seen I tweeted Coral had Baines to go to United before September at a huge 16/1, before quickly altering this to 2/1. Luckily I was able to have a small dabble of £10 at the 16/1 price, although I normally don't get involved in markets like this I knew the price was not an accurate reflection of the situation and jumped on it accordingly.

Overall it is clear that the prices I am quoting now will not be the same by the season opener as there is still so much to be resolved. Chelsea and City look to be changing their managers and I imagine they and United will be spending big this summer too. The Rooney situation is unresolved and should he go to City or Chelsea it would really shake things up.

For now though, we should just savour the end of a brilliant career as Sir Alex bows out in style.

Ronnie Rolls On

Well I admitted that I wasn't sure if Ronnie O'Sullivan would be able to recreate his magic from the past and to be quite honest I was spot on. He wasn't his old self throughout the tournament: He was a million times more incredible. Even his biggest fans surely could not have expected such a ridiculously imperious return to the game as he swept aside everyone and made light work of the world's biggest snooker tournament. Okay, he didn't have the toughest run to the title and a glamour tie with Judd Trump was as close as he came to leaving the tournament, and we all know how much of a pain in the ass he can be at times; for someone who claims he doesn't like attention he sure is good at kicking up a storm, but ultimately it was a phenomenal performance from a player who hasn't been in the game for a whole year. While I am really hoping he stops moping around and plays on the circuit next year, I am still unsure as to whether the snooker world needs him or not. While it is brilliant to see him back and he certainly brings in the crowds, it is a bit like Man United bringing Paul Scholes back in the middle of the season last year. It is great to see an old genius back playing and he has shown he is more than capable of competing at the highest standard, but the problem is it doesn't really allow for new stars to come through. This season has seen the trio of Trump, Selby and Roberston rise to the top of the rankings in much the same way the 'big four' have in tennis. The three have been interchanging in the rankings throughout the whole year and each of them has their own style of snooker flair, providing great entertainment throughout in my opinion. If I was Barry Hearn, I would have marketed the rivalry between these three as much as I possibly could as they look to be the best talents for the future and could go on to dominate between them. Domination is definitely something the game needs but I am still undecided as to whether Ronnie being the dominator at this late and unpredictable stage in his career is good for the sport. Maybe that debate is for another day though.

Now the snooker is over it is back to football for me, though that is nearly over too and I will soon find myself lost for a whole summer (though perhaps this is good as it will be a summer of mad job hunting). The form of the three teams going for the champions league has been exceptional over the last few weeks and I must admit I thought at least one of them would falter. Chelsea in particular have impressed me the way they have balanced their European efforts and their league position simultaneously, though in fairness I couldn't think of many better managers to do this, I wonder how many Chelsea fans will be annoyed at Rafa's appointment by the end of the season. I am beginning to wonder about the threat Chelsea will pose next season in the title race as they have a big squad with some fantastic young players, while they have the appropriate mix of experienced players too, but I will wait until after the transfer/manager window before making any decisions. If you are looking at this though, they are currently 4.4 to win the league next season on Betfair, which is considerably shorter than the 6.4 they started at this season. They still have a massive match tomorrow against Spurs and anyone willing to stick their neck out on a Spurs win could take a big profit as a huge flip in the markets would be probably should Spurs win. As it is though, the markets have Chelsea firmly in the top 4 spot at 1.09 and their top 3 price is now at 1.28 following their victory at Old Trafford. Spurs remain outsiders for the top 4 at 2.86 while Arsenal are at 1.36. 

Enjoy the football this week. Savour it. It won't last for much longer!

Deadlock is Broken

After many weeks and 16 matches of see-sawing in the Premier League, we now have a clear favourite for the title for the first time this season. Having bounced around at odds of 2s and 3s in weeks previous, Manchester United are now odds-on at 1.61 to win the title, having pulled 6 points clear after Sunday's derby. Manchester City are yet to go below evens this season, while Chelsea were only matched as low as 3.35, despite their electrifying start.

To suggest the title race is over however is preposterous, and anyone uttering those words really knows little about football, particularly English football. Laying United at 1.61 is almost definite to see a return at some point in the campaign, but a more appealing lay looks to be the EVENS on United 1st/City 2nd in the straight forecast, as it allows for more variables to affect the bet. This means that even in the unlikely event that City do not put up a fight for their crown, the bet will still prosper if City are pressured for 2nd place by Chelsea or another contender. Odds of 3.5 on City 1st/United 2nd are also worth considering, although liquidity is currently an issue in that market.

At the other end of the table the boys are beginning to be sorted from the men, and both QPR (1.61) and Reading (1.34) remain odds-on for relegation, though all could change tonight with the 6-pointer between Sunderland and Reading. At present, QPR's price appears to be being maintained at a higher point than it perhaps should be, with the side currently 8 points from safety, which is presumably due to the Redknapp effect. Every winless week however sees them slip that little bit lower, and if there is no win very soon, then it won't be long before their price slips sub 1.5. Further up, we have Sunderland at 3.75, Aston Villa at 3.75 and Wigan at 3.15, which are particularly generous prices considering the form of these teams thus far. The trick is however picking the team which will continue to plummet. At this stage last year, Wigan were only two points worse off than this season, and found themselves bottom of the table by match week 22, six games from now. Paradoxically, Sunderland surged up the table, while Villa maintained a steady pace in mid-table. Although these stats are hardly foolproof, especially considering Sunderland's surge was largely due to a managerial change around this stage last season, it is a decent guide and is certainly worth considering.

The next 5 fixtures for each team are as follows:

WIGAN- Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Everton (A), Villa (A), Man Utd (H).
SUNDERLAND - Reading (H), Man Utd (A), Southampton (A), Man City (H), Spurs (H).
ASTON VILLA - Liverpool (A), Chelsea (A), Spurs (H), Wigan (H), Swansea (A).

Each of the three appear to have a tricky Christmas period in store, and there isn't really a great deal of difference between any of the lists. Although Sunderland have the most home matches, they are against top 6 teams (tonight's match excluded) and if they were to win tonight, it would certainly be worth looking at their relegation price as a back-to-lay option. Villa likewise could see themselves further in the cesspit after their next three games, but the match at home to Wigan will be a crucial 6 pointer.

That's all from me, I hope you enjoy your week.

Long Shots

I was looking through a couple of old posts on my blog when I stumbled across this from April last year. It is a long post but among the waffle I found an interesting point by former self:

'...after 9 games 7 Bayern wins, 1 draw and a loss, 25 goals for and 1 against, saw them 5 points clear and as low as 1.2 for the title. 1.2?! After 9 games? This isn't Spain. Their form naturally deteriorated and now Dortmund are 8 points clear and unbackable on Betfair. Lesson learned, and that is what I will look to do next year.' 

This season has seen a similar pattern as Bayern have rushed into the lead leaving everyone in their wake and after 11 games were W10 D0 L1 F32 A4, 7 points ahead of their nearest competitor Schalke, and odds of 1.11 to win the title. They did recruit players such as Shaqiri and Mandzukic over the summer, but this is still a team who finished 8 points off Dortmund last season. One of the main reasons for the short price is the poor start by defending champions Dortmund, who sat 11 points behind Bayern after 11 games. Dortmund did however manage to keep the majority of their team over the summer, including stars such as Lewandowski and Reus, and have demonstrated their technical abilities in the Champions League, particularly against Real Madrid. With all this taken into account I chose to lay Bayern at 1.12 for £400 (liability £48), and I would be surprised if I didn't see a profit on this at some point in the season. This weekend Bayern dropped 2 points away to Nuremburg and Dortmund won at home to Furth. Bayern actually extended their lead to 8 points because the two below them both lost, but Dortmund are my best hope at chasing down Munich so it is their results which are the most crucial. After the weekend Bayern drifted a tiny amount to 1.13/1.14, hopefully it'll continue. I contemplated doing the same thing with Barca, but the Spanish league is a different thing all together, so I have decided to leave that one well alone. Instead I took on Chelsea to finish in the top 3 at 1.27. 

I chose to trade out half of my liability in the Arsenal top 4 bet at evens, which was handy because they're now down to 1.74 after their derby win. I'm going to leave the remainder of it for now because they still have a couple of tough games to come. By my reckoning however, I think it is almost time for them to hit their purple patch, and an easy Christmas period might mean that I switch to backing them rather than laying them. It'll depends on where the odds are in a few weeks though so I shall let you know.

Elsewhere I had a very poor week this week and made a loss of around £15. I don't really think I did a great deal wrong to be honest, apart from in one game where I made a bad decision, but mainly the results went against the trends in the matches I picked. It is swings and roundabouts though, and I have been having a number of profitable weeks so I guess this is just one of those weeks where luck eludes you. You can't win all the time.

Tonight is the Champions League and I'm not sure I will be dabbling too much in those murky waters. Some teams are already through, and some are already out so mindsets completely change and it is difficult to call. If I do get involved it will be small stakes. Good luck if you have a bet tonight. 

Remarkable Scenes

Well last night was something special, and I don't think I have ever witnessed a game with so many goals before! You can tell it was one of those weird nights though, simply because Chamakh scored a lob! I blame it on the coming Halloween. I had layed Reading at 4-2 at odds of 1.1 for £20, but I had all but written that bet off until Walcott's last flourish. I feel the match completely summed up how it must feel to be an Arsenal fan throughout the course of a season - annoyance - anger - devastation - embarrassment - hope - joy - disbelief - disappointment - ecstasy - we're gonna win the quadruple. Arsenal are now temporarily favourites to win the cup, but I expect the winner of tonight's rematch between United and Chelsea will shorten to favourite by tomorrow morning.

Back in the Premier League it was a good weekend for my bets as Spurs won away and United beat Chelsea, though not in completely legitimate ways. I have to be careful here because naturally I am biased toward United, but I think it should be noted that Chelsea rightly down to 10 men before the Torres debacle, and they would have struggled to maintain their high intensity right to the end. Furthermore, Torres should have been sent off for a horrendous challenge on Cleverly in the first half, and I think if he and the United players had made more of it then he probably would have been sent off. Despite this however, it was a shame how it turned out - never a red for Torres and miles offside was Hernandez - and the markets have shown some sympathy toward Chelsea on this occasion. They have drifted in the markets but only very slightly, presumably because people feel they would have fared better had they not been 'robbed'. They are still fancied in the winners market, only drifting from 3.75 to 3.95, and they still sit a solid 1.09 to finish in the top 4. 

It will be interesting to see if this racism row with Clattenburg has any impact at all on decisions against or for Chelsea. The referee's union is known for being a close-knit group, and I just wonder if there is a 50-50 in their next match which way the referee will swing. We will see.

That's all from me today, more Capital One Cup to look forward to tonight. Chelsea are quite big favourites for tonight's clash, and I'm not sure why really. United won on Sunday and undoubtedly have a bigger squad which should be stronger on paper , if both teams play their reserves that is. Chelsea obviously have the home advantage but I still think that 2.18 is very short, even if there is the 'revenge factor'. Enjoy all.

Chelsea shorten, Arsenal drift

It is that time of the season again when Arsenal drop points to a low placed team and everyone begins to lament their lack of strength and Piers Morgan cries about how poor the team is these days compared to the 'Invincibles'. The sad truth is however, that no one should really be surprised in the slightest. Much the same as every other season in recent history, the club decided to sell big and buy small, leaving the team threadbare and slapdash. Last year it was Nasri and Fabregas, replaced by the monstrous Arteta and Benayoun, along with a spattering of other nobodies. This year it was Song and Van Persie, replaced with Cazorla (okay Arsene, you can have that one) and Giroud (you can't have that one though). Podolski was also recruited but he looks as if he is going to slip into the Walcott bracket Arsenal so dearly cherish, ie superb one week, dire the next. 3 wins from 8 and they sit 9th in the table, yet it is probably fair to say that it is only the Arsenal fans with delusions of grandeur who are surprised by this. A couple of exciting performances from Cazorla and a goal from Giroud got the fans wiggling with excitement, but reality has settled back in now and they must acknowledge they are a top 4 side, but no more for now. Interestingly, the market is still heavily favouring them for the top 4 at a price of 1.7, and I would probably agree with that price for now. They have a good team still, better than those around them, they will improve and probably do just enough to make the top 4, but they won't run away with it. And that is precisely what makes the top 4 market so exciting to trade. After being 1.5 midweek they are now on the drift and don't be surprised to see them hit evens soon if their form doesn't improve.

On the other side of North London we have a club who does know how to spend, and they have done so to devastating effect this time round. For the first time this season they have crept into the 3s for the title, sitting at 3.75, as the market is beginning to take them seriously as title contenders. I have opposed them and I stand by my stance that they can't continue this form for too long, but I have to admit they are playing very well at the moment, and their performance against Spurs was particularly impressive. They're now at 1.09 to finish in the top 4 after storming 8 and 10 points clear of Spurs and Arsenal respectively. Their next task is Manchester United twice in a week, in the league and Capital One Cup, and here we will see what Chelsea are really made of. But with both games at Stamford Bridge and the defensive frailties of United so far, you would be a brave man to take on The Pensioners. That said, Chelsea's defence looks wobbly itself without their captain so I will be expecting the overs markets to be heavy odds on in a fixture which finished 3-3 last season.

I got back to winning ways this weekend taking a small profit of around £13. After reprimanding myself the other week I kept my stakes steady and calculated, even when United lost the lead AGAIN, and it worked out a lot better for me overall. My in-play trading hasn't been as productive so far this season as I would have hoped, but this is more down to lack of time than anything I am doing wrong. Most weekends I have been visiting friends or family and throughout the week I have a lot of work on at university (a student doing work, shocking I know, but it does happen). I will continue to try and take profits but perhaps my inconsistency is costing me slightly and I'm not convinced I will be able to make my £500 target by week 38. But as long as I make a profit, from in-play and my longer trades, I will be happy.

The Top 4

The top four poses an exciting dilemma this season, as the uncertainty of last term looks set to continue. By my reckoning, the top two spots should be filled by the Manchester boys, leaving only two places up for grabs. As I mentioned yesterday, Chelsea look stronger this year and look a good bet for 3rd place and currently sit at 1.79 to finish in the top 3. However they did finish in 6th place last year, and determination to defend their European crown may cause domestic aims to be ignored just like last time, meaning that anything could happen in there. But this really only leaves room for one other team from either Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle to take the holy grail that is a place in Europe's top competition. Other teams could be in the mix, Newcastle surprised us all last year, but with such competition this year, it is unlikely any other team will be able to mount a serious challenge. Incidentally, if you fancy the Manchester clubs to dominate up top, they're available on the straight forecast at 3.9 (City/United) and 5.5 (United/City), both of which are likely to trade lower throughout the season, therefore representing good value.

Arsenal

For the first time in a while the Gunners have experienced a respectable amount of Summer investment, and will look to push on from the 3rd place they scraped last season. We might have to wait until the end of August before seeing what Arsenal's squad looks like however, as the Van Persie saga draws on and rumours about Song's sale are escalating. Despite the excellent signing of Santi Cazorla, and the still-to-be-tested signings of Podolski and Giroud, Van Persie's departure will leave Arsenal very thin on the ground at the top. One of their main downfalls last season was their reliance upon their captain, as the woeful Chamakh was the next best thing for them. Losing 30-goal Van Persie will be a huge loss and with Podolski and Cazorla preferring to play on the wings, it leaves only the untested Giroud as a recognised striker of any quality. Should Song depart as well, they will be in real trouble, having been Arsenal's second best player last season. Injuries will need to be kind to the team, particularly at the back where the squad is its most bare, but with Wilshere, Walcott and Oxlaide-Chamberlain all currently ruled out, it appears to have continued with a familiar trend.

Overall, I expect Arsenal to be one of the leading teams in the hunt for fourth spot, but 1.68 represents little value at the moment. I am confident that that price will trade a lot higher during the campaign as teams in and around that spot tend to be pretty inconsistent. For now though, a lay of Arsenal to finish in the top 3 looks good at 2.9.

Tottenham

Spurs flirted with the title for a while last season before stumbling to a 4th place finish, which unusually put them into the Europa League only. Villas Boas has stepped in and the market doesn't seem to know quite what to think about this, with a fair degree of uncertainty surrounding the man who was sacked from Chelsea in less than a year. It is my opinion though, that he will be a lot more effective in a club which he has full control over, and we have seen his true potential from his time at Porto. He will bring stability to the team and his attacking style should suit Spurs who have an abundance of attacking talent. That being said, the loss of Luka Modric will come as a huge blow (should it happen), and he will need to be properly replaced if Spurs are going to truly challenge for the top 4. Sigurdsson is a good buy and should do well, but he is not in the same league as Modric, and I expect Levy to go shopping before September 1st. They are also desperately missing a striker and, should they end up with only Defoe, their attacking threat will be significantly reduced and I would question their ability to challenge the top 4 at all.

They do, however, still possess a strong base to the team, and the signing of Vertonghen will provide stability to the back 4. Having hung on to Bale and Van Der Vaart, their starting 11 would still be one of the most powerful in the league if they were able to bring in a classy striker. They also have the advantage of not being in the Champions League, unlike Chelsea and Arsenal, so may benefit from having a fitter squad towards the end of the season (it is unlikely they will go all out in the Europa League). Overall, it is a waiting game with Spurs, as their transfer activity looks far from done. They are currently odds of 3 to finish top 4 which looks big, but should they bring in some big players, expect that price to tumble.

Newcastle

It will be almost like second-season-syndrome for Newcastle after their remarkable climb to 5th place last sesason. So far they have only spent £1million on new faces after a pretty expensive January presumably used up a lot of their funds. In terms of a starting 11, Newcastle's team is strong in most areas, and the likes of Coloccini and Cabaye would walk into United or Chelsea's team. In terms of their squad however, they haven't strengthened when others around them have, and they will struggle with the extra burden of Europe to contend with. Realistically, the top 4 looks out of their reach and the market seems to have realised that with their odds at 15. Although they are big odds I would be wary about taking them on for a trade as I'm unsure if they will be able to continue their form from last season. The top 6 looks like a more realistic target and the odds of 4 look very appealing for a back to lay trade.

Liverpool

There are some who think they will be in the mix at the top, and others who think that they will fall behind Everton yet again. I buy neither. They will be better drilled and play a lot nicer football, but ultimately their squad is not good enough to find its way into the top 4. Even with the apparent addition of Nuri Sahin on loan (apparently it will be announced tomorrow), I still don't think that their squad has the strength and depth. Not yet, anyway. I believe in Rodgers as a manager and he has a decent core in the Liverpool squad, but it will take time and I can't see it working immediately. Their attacking options look particularly bare, with the Suarez the only goalscoring striker available. Coral go 11/8 that he will be their top scorer, and that looks like a price worth taking. Despite missing as many as he could manage last season and only netting 11 league goals, the closest to him was Bellamy on 6 goals, and he is meant to be leaving this summer. Another thing is that Rodger's side is unlikely to be blessed with goals. Swansea saw the least amount of games where both teams score (14/38), and Anfield saw the least amount of goals of all the stadia in England. Put simply: Liverpool's boring style is set to get even more boring, so backing under 2.5 goals in most games looks a good shout, though I doubt you'll get much value. Lucas returning for the Reds is a huge bonus as he really started to show promising form before his injury, but it will only help to bolster an already pretty sturdy defence and I think attack will be their main problem throughout. 3.35 looks a good price to lay Liverpool at for the top 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if it traded a lot higher than that very soon.

Overall

The teams in the mix for the top 4 will chop and change drastically throughout the season, as each of these teams have proved themselves to be unreliable and inconsistent. None of them have a big enough squad to maintain form for the whole year, particularly with cup competitions and Europe to deal with also, so there will definitely be a big opening for some trading throughout. If anyone takes an early lead in the table I would advise laying them quickly.

On a side note, I have just heard the news about Van Persie to United. So that leaves us with Van Persie, Rooney, Kagawa and Valencia vs Aguero, Tevez, Silva and Yaya vs Torres, Hazard, Mata and Oscar. Wow. We are in for a treat. From the top 7, only Spurs have strengthened their defence, so we may see some goals...

Premier League 12/13 Preview: Winner's market

Hello there and welcome back. I have not blogged for a while as there has been no betting activity on my part, but mainly because I have been busy being caught up in the Olympic spirit. I watched the majority of the events and loved every second of it, but that being said I am now pleased it is over and normal service can resume. It was like a nice holiday, but you're always pleased to go back home. The post-appocolympics has left the nation riding on a crest of optimism, and football sadly seems to be the thing which is suffering in a number of ways. The debate on 'Olympians vs footballers' is utterly ridiculous, but we will soon see how the current darlings of the nation fare with cameras constantly shoved in their faces or up their skirts. I won't go on about it, we might be here all night. The more pressing issue is the lack of betting activity in the exchanges and bookies due to the Olympic and Euros distractions. I have no doubt that the love of football will resume once the big boys get going again this weekend, but for now it is a bit of a pain. Over a million has been matched on Betfair's PL winner market, but other markets have considerably less, particularly in markets such as PL relegation, where only £57,000 has been matched. The pointless markets in Scotland, as well as the odds on favourites of PSG, Juventus, Bayern and Real Madrid have not helped rouse excitement.

So anyway, this week I shall be doing a number of betting previews of the upcoming season, featuring the different markets of England's top league. I'll conclude with my own bets and trades for the coming season before Saturday's kick off. Today I'll be looking at the Premier League outright winner market. Enjoy.

Manchester City

Clearly counting the pennies now that the Fifa Fair Play rules are coming into motion, the defending champions have been one of the quietest teams this transfer window. Despite Mancini's complaining however, I wouldn't be too concerned if I was a City fan (and I certainly wouldn't trust Mancini's press conferences, after he brought a whole new dimension to the phrase 'mind games' last season). Despite only winning on goal difference last term, they will undoubtedly come back a stronger team, buoyed by their psychological breakthrough and confident they can repeat the feat. The only position in the squad which City really needed to strengthen was cover in defensive midfield, and the excellent acquisition of Jack Rodwell should provide sufficient assistance for De Jong, Barry and Yaya Toure, particularly with Toure likely to attend the African Cup of Nations in January. They could do with another centre back to cover for their outstanding leader, Kompany, but other than that their squad is by far the strongest in the league. The return of Tevez, barring further fall-outs, should bolster an already blistering attack and he looks set to get a fair few goals along the way. The 17 on him for top goalscorer looks large considering his records when he has played a full season, and that is probably because he is likely to play behind his equally prolific Argentine pal, Aguero. Aguero might just pip Tevez to the golden boot but Tevez is likely to bag a lot, especially as Aguero will probably be given the nod in Europe over him, so the 4.3 on him to come in the top four goalscorers looks very attractive.
Overall, City look strong, very strong. They will have no problem making the top 4 or 3, reflected in the prices 1.06 and 1.14 respectively, and will most likely challenge for the title the whole way, if not win it. They should have greater commitments in Europe this time, but they should have a big enough squad to cope with the demand. 2.3 for them to take the title offers little value, so it might be worth waiting for them to slip up instead before backing.

Manchester United

Another who hasn't strengthened a great deal this Summer, but having only missed out by a matter of goals last season, they look set to be in the thick of it once again. Unlike City, United do have weaknesses in places, particularly centre midfield and full back, but will benefit from a number of players returning from injury. Anderson, Cleverley and Fletcher all return for United in the middle of the park, whilst exciting new signing Kagawa will give Ferguson greater options in attack, and could even be used as the often missing playmaker behind the striker. The biggest plus for United however, is the return of their star centre back and captain Nemanja Vidic, whose absence last season proved the difference between 1st and 2nd. The return of their captain should sure up the defence and improve their European record from last time, but make no mistake about it: Ferguson will be putting all his efforts into taking his Premier League title back. The attacking options could still be boosted by the arrival of Robin Van Persie, which would give United a strike force to rival their neighbours. Again, the odds of 3.45 represent little value, particularly with a difficult start for Ferguson's men. If United trade any higher than this in the first half of the season however, it will definitely be worth taking as they will be in the mix by May. They have not finished outside of the top 3 in their Premier League history, and they will not be starting this season.

Chelsea

Chelsea are a gamble this year, and that is definitely reflected in their starting price (6.4). There are some that will see the big money signings of Hazard, Oscar and Marin as a sign that the European champions really mean business this year, while others will question the ability of a team who finished 6th last time around. The biggest concern for me is the striker area where Torres is their only recognised front man, and if he continues in the same form as last year the team could find themselves lacking goals. For the record, I think Torres will finally step up to the mark this year, especially having such creative talent around him, but having no real cover for him remains a worry. The loss of Drogba is big, though perhaps it will affect them more in cup competitions. Boylesports have gone 16/1 that Juan Mata records the most assists this year, and that looks huge to me. Mata, in his debut season in England, recorded the joint second most assists last year (with Antonio Valencia who is also a huge 18/1), and looks set to benefit further from Torres actually scoring this year. At very least it looks good for an each way punt. Elsewhere they still remain an aging team in places. Terry's performances dipped last season and if he continues in such a way it will be a big blow for the team reliant upon the leadership skills of their captain. Questions still surround the manager, though I personally like him a great deal, and a poor run could see the irrational Abramovic hand out another P45.
Due to their unpredictability, bettors are warned to take caution with the large price quoted for Chelsea. City were a similar price at the start of last season, and those who took that price look inspired come the end of the season, but I don't think it is quite as clear cut this year. I don't think it is likely that they will go from 6th to 1st, whether they are European Champions or not. This said, they should emerge decent contenders for a short while at least, and taking the 1.93 on Chelsea to win without the big 2 looks a lot better value.

The Rest

Let's get one thing straight, I am pretty sure that this year's winner will come from Manchester, but I am extremely sure that it will come from one of the above. So much so that I consider the 1.14 odds, achieved by dutching the three above, an extremely good investment. If I had more money to spend I would go for it, but being a student I am somewhat lacking in capital. Those with oodles of cash however might want to consider this proposition of 14% interest on a 10 month investment as they scramble around the banks comparing their measly 4% interest offers. I cannot see a way any club other than City, United or Chelsea will win the league, and the Premier League is so grueling that shocks are rarely produced at the very top, as only the very best squads will be named champions.

Arsenal were typically inconsistent last year, but have made some decent signings over the Summer. The loss of Van Persie however, which seems increasingly likely, will be an enormous blow as he carried them to third place last time out. It will leave new signing Giroud as their main front man, and he is so far untested in the Arsenal red. Should they lose Song as well, it will effectively be game over for them in my eyes, as I rate him as one of the best midfielders in the league. Tottenham look weaker than last year, especially if they lose Modric, and there is still a degree of uncertainty over their manager's ability in England. The signings they have made are decent enough, but they desperately need a striker and even then will struggle to make the top three. Liverpool will be stronger and better drilled than last year, but they have no hope in hell of winning the title this year.

Next up I will review the Top 4 markets. Enjoy your night.