Market Madness

So Harry couldn't forge a great escape this week and now finds his team 7 points off safety with just 8 games to go. Defeat to Villa saw QPR's pre-match relegation price of 1.54 plummet to 1.23, while Villa flew back out to 3.05 in this everlasting merry-go-round. The optimists will say there is still time for QPR, and indeed Reading (1.09 for the drop), to escape the bank-busting relegation and many still find themselves in disbelief that a club who has spent so much money are in such a bad position. They are now in serious trouble however and games are running out, the lay at 1.22 is now far less appealing than it was a few months ago and I believe people would be best keeping clear. Slightly further up and there are some very interesting prices with Southampton and Sunderland both sitting 4 points clear of the drop, though it will be only 1 point if Wigan win their game in hand. At present the Southampton price to go down is 8.8 while Sunderland, on the same points and with a better goal difference, are at 4.4. It could be argued that Sunderland have a more difficult run-in, with games against Man United, Chelsea, Spurs and Everton to come, but with quality players such as Steven Fletcher and Seb Larsson at their disposal I find it hard to see why there is such a big gap between the two prices.

Further up the table and Fulham were the obvious winners in the race for the top 10 with their victory away at Spurs, while Newcastle have a right to feel aggrieved after their loss to Wigan. Fulham are now the front runners for the 10th placed spot at odds of 2.3, with Stoke coming up the rear at 3.7.

Higher up is where it is really beginning to get interesting though and the last 10 days have seen huge fluctuations in the top 6 and top 4 markets. In my previous post I noted Spurs were 1.43 for the top 4 finish, while 9 days ago I highlighted how the markets had Liverpool at 1.49 for the top 6. After defeat at Southampton and Everton's win against Man City, Everton now find themselves 1.85 favourites on Merseyside, while Liverpool have drifted out to 2.02. Similarly, after losing back-to-back games including a poor home defeat against Fulham, Spurs have drifted right out to 2.08 for the top 4 and are still drifting! Arsenal are now 1.82 to rob their North London friends of the Champions League place despite being four points behind with a game in hand. 

There is certainly some serious money to be made at this time of year as prices can change a lot more than they would during the middle of the season, for obvious reasons. Needless to say however, that with greater opportunity comes greater risk. I was lucky enough to have layed Spurs for the top 4 last week, but then I unfortunately had layed  QPR to go down, so swings and roundabouts. It's just about finding the right ones. 

I'll leave you with a stat which I have only just noticed (sorry if this is old news to you) - QPR have not been higher than 18th at ANY STAGE this season. Absolutely abysmal.

Drab TV

Good morning sports fans, I hope you've all recovered after another brilliant Cheltenham festival. It really got me in the mood for racing and I can't wait to go to the National in a few weeks now! From a profit perspective I did well, mainly through the help of Bonus Bagging, and made around £150 matched betting the various offers and enhancements going around. I only had a couple of real bets and they both lost, therefore showing the reason I don't tend to bet on horses! The fun doesn't end here for sports lovers though as we have a big couple of months coming up with the return of F1, the Six Nations, the conclusion of the football season, the snooker world championship, the Masters, Aintree and more. Unfortunately from a football perspective, ESPN and SkySports have picked a poor schedule this weekend when I personally feel there are much more exciting games on. United-Reading, while I am sure it might attract a big audience, is not a very appealing game and the same fixture was on TV a few weeks ago in the FA Cup. I'm sure neutrals would much rather watch Swansea-Arsenal or Villa-QPR to be honest. Tomorrow Sky have Sunderland-Norwich on for some completely bizarre reason, having already shown the reverse fixture earlier in the season.

The aforementioned Villa-QPR match is the obvious big one this weekend and could have a massive impact on the relegation markets. Villa (currently 2.3 for the drop) will climb to 30 points with a win, 6 points off the drop with Wigan having 2 in hand, and you would have to feel that this would leave QPR (currently 1.54 for the drop) in a very poor position. A win for the Hoops would of course mean a complete reverse and would leave them a point behind Villa, but surely Harry can't pull off three victories in a row, surely? Keep an eye on Southampton though, a loss today and wins for Villa and Wigan (at home to Newcastle tomorrow) would put them one point clear of relegation, and they have some tough matches to come. The price of 3.95 on them to go down could soon evaporate. Elsewhere, Arsenal can apply the pressure on what must be a fatigued Spurs for the fourth place spot (though it is currently occupied by Chelsea), by winning away at Swansea. You can currently lay Spurs at 1.43 if you think they will falter between now and the end of the season, and this is a price I have taken. I think they still will finish in the top 4 and I hope they do too, but I think it will be close as Arsenal have a much favourable run-in and nothing else to worry about.

Up at the top City need to win today at Everton to have any chance of the title. Although Everton have been faltering recently it is still a tough place to go and big teams often struggle there. I do feel however that United's season is in a vulnerable position at the moment, despite their big lead at the top. They are out of one cup and threw away a good lead in another, and I think they desperately need a win today before the international break. Anything other than a win and those little demons might just creep into their minds. They are available to lay at 1.06 if you think this is likely.

Enjoy your weekend.

Getting ahead of the game

Relax, this is not going to be a post in which I try to sell you the latest gizmo to help you become a trading miracle, despite what the title suggests. Instead I will be looking at the differences and difficulties in picking your trades at the right times, in order to catch the price wave you desire rather than hit a wall.

This season has been my biggest learning curve yet as I have taken on a new challenge in trading the long term markets. So far it has been a fairly positive experience as I am currently in profit, but this has not been without some trials and tribulations. On occasions I think I have reacted to the form of teams and made a move, rather than anticipating a change in form, which is the crucial element. This has mainly resulted in a red screen and it is something which I will need to expel from my game if I am to make good profits. To put this into simpler terms, it is the equivalent of a football match which sees a goal scored in the first 5 minutes, and backing over 2.5 goals after the goal has been scored. With a pre-match price around evens for the over 2.5, an early goal would see the price plummet to around 1.4, and in my opinion backing it at this stage would be rather stupid (though I have been known to do such a thing in a less disciplined era!) Backing at this stage and this price would represent little value and more often than not would lead to losses, particularly if you are looking to trade the bet rather than punt outright. In my opinion there are only two reasons for making such a bet: either because you are reacting to the electric start to the match and think there will be more goals, or because you were waiting for a bigger price on the overs before getting involved, and were frustrated at the early goal, yet buoyed that your pre-match prediction looks to be taking place. This is a classic case of reaction over anticipation, which will commonly lead to unsuccessful trading in the long run.

With the outright markets, the trend remains the same but it is even more crucial to make your trades at the right times because of liquidity problems. It is tempting at times to back with the form book, for instance when a team is on a losing streak and playing diabolical football it sometimes seems incomprehensible that they may ever regain form, but of course they normally do. It is unusual that a team goes through a whole season without a win, losing every match along the way, and similarly so that a team will win every game. Even Arsenal's 'Invincibles' were 2nd in the league at the halfway point in 03/04, having drawn 6 of 19 matches. The reason for this post is that I was considering my potential next moves earlier in the week, and the two which came to my head were Norwich to be relegated and Liverpool top 4 both as back-to-lays. When looking at the form table however, it soon became evident why these two were in my mind, as Liverpool sit 4th from the last 6 matches, and Norwich bottom. Norwich are now 7.4 for relegation, after being around 12.5 before their slump in form. Liverpool are 8 for the top 4 now, after being matched as high as 13 just a few weeks ago. There is little point in taking these prices now as the movement has already happened. There are exceptions to this of course, and either of these teams might continue in the same form, but mostly taking trades in this manner will lead to disaster. Looking at the form table a more realistic option might be backing Southampton for relegation at a generous 3.5, particularly as they are only four points from the drop zone.

I have battled with anticipation and reaction throughout the season, as can be demonstrated clearly by these two images: 

Backed at a low price of 4.7, not far from their lowest matched price this season, after a run of poor form. Layed at 12 for a loss.

Backed for top 6 at 1.733 after a run of poor form at the start of the season, layed at 1.4 for a profit after they picked up the pace.

The two images above really reflect the difference in my trades, and I am looking to expel the need to go with the trends after they have happened, however tempting it might be. QPR's home performance to Liverpool a few weeks ago showed a depleted, awful side who look destined for relegation. The next match they won 1-0 at Stamford Bridge. At the end of the day, football is a crazy old sport and to be profitable you have to attempt to predict what's coming. Easy huh? Have a good week.

Top 10 and Relegation review

I was going to do a post on the top 10 market, and then another on the relegation market, but I appear to be running out of time before the big kick off! Luckily, the guys at Sports Trading Life have covered the relegation markets, and their analysis pretty much resembles my thoughts. You can read their post here to save me a job:  http://sportstradinglife.com/2012/08/premier-league-relegation-markets-preview/

There are however, some bits which I'd like to add my thoughts to, as well as a couple of mid-table battles I’d like to mention. So, here goes.

The Top 10 market:

Fulham

This is a team which I feel really has the potential to push on and cement their place in the top 10 teams, particularly after making smart signings over the summer. They finished in 9^th place last season (joint with Liverpool in 8^th, and 5 points clear of 10^th) and Martin Jol really looks like he is getting a hold of the Cottagers now, bringing in the exciting Petric and Rodallega which is sure to provide a necessary boost to the Fulham attack. They have, so far, been able to hold together the core of their team, though I wonder if they can hold on for Dempsey for too much longer. Even without him though I think they should be able to make their way into the top ten quite comfortably, with the impressive Dembele, Ruiz and Diarra forming the heart of their midfield. My only worry is the loss of Murphy and how much that will affect them. Although he was aging, he still made 33 appearances last year and undoubtedly provided a calm experienced head in the middle of the park. The team has enough to step up to the plate though, and should Dempsey leave we could see another signing before the end of the window. The defence which kept 11 clean sheets last season remains the same, with the addition of right back Reither on loan. As with the top 4 market, expect much chopping and changing. But for now, 2.62 on Fulham to finish in the top 10 looks like a steal. Especially when you consider that since 08/09 they have finished 7^th, 12^th, 8^th, 9^th. Those bolder might fancy taking on them for the top six at 12 for a back to lay option, but my concern would be the better teams could push away from the middle pack early doors. If we look at the graph of Fulham’s positions last year, we can see that although the general trend is upwards, the middle of the table is so tight that any run of losses will drop you down a number of places.

Sunderland

On the other side of things we have Sunderland, who look like a struggling team to me. They came 13^th last season and appeared to be slipping back into their frail ways toward the end of the season, despite the burst around New Year after the appointment of Martin O’Neil. They have failed to really strengthen during the summer, and up until last week had only swapped centre back Turner for Carlos Cuellar. This week has seen a flurry, and a desperate looking one at that, of transfers, bringing in Steven Fletcher for silly money and the hapless Louis Saha earlier today. Fletcher is a good striker and proven finisher, but will only really fill the big hole which Bendtner left when he returned to Arsenal. Saha is another good striker, but only when he is fit, which he rarely is, sadly. He has only managed over 25 appearances once in the last 10 seasons, and I seriously question his ability to carry the Sunderland front line.

Depressed Sunderland fan and Betfair blogger Jonathan Wilson has been lamenting the Mackem squad this week, which I was (a tiny bit) annoyed about because his (apparently large) influence has caused a drift on the Sunderland price for top 10, as well as shortening for relegation. I don’t think they will be in the relegation mix, as he tipped, mainly due to the quality of players such as Sessegnon and Larsson, but I cannot see them finishing in the top 10. The competition is too high this year and there is no room for Sunderland. If they buy a few more players in the next few weeks I may reconsider, but for now, 2.26 for the lay of top 10 looks great to me. 

Reading
Reading are currently second favourites for the drop, but I will be surprised if they remain at their current price for long. They were the best team in the Championship last season after a remarkable second half of the season, and have strengthened considerably in a bit to cement their place in the top flight. Pogrebnyak is an excellent signing for free, after we all saw his potential at Fulham last year. Elsewhere they have brought in some experienced and talented faces, and I think there are quite a few teams worse than them this time round. They can be layed for the drop at 2.52, and backed at 7.2 for a back to lay trade if you are feeling more confident. They don’t have the easiest of starts however, so waiting a couple of months for their price to rise might get you better value.

Norwich
These are my biggest tip for relegation this year. They surprised everyone last year by having an exceptional season and producing performances a lot higher than the quality of their squad, but I cannot see them keeping that up this year. They have lost their very influential manager and replaced him with Chris Hughton. I have nothing against Hughton but I question his ability to keep a very average squad in the Premier League, especially so soon after Lambert's departure. Last year, they relied on Holt and Morison for goals, two strikers who ordinarily would not have provided such a tally, but were riding on adrenaline which I would be surprised if they kept up this year. I think it is telling that Holt was not picked for the England squad, I for one was not wishing for him to play for us vs the likes of Italy or France. Not that I hate the guy by the way, I like him and hope he does well this season, but I just think last year was a small fluke. But anyway, they haven't strengthened quite as much as I think they need to - Turner is a good buy and much needed as their defence was awful last year.
Towards the end of last year they began to lose their form and I expect them to continue that into the new season. And baring in mind their tough start (Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal) in the first couple of months, 2.58 for the drop looks tasty. You might even want to take a bit of the 6.8 for rock bottom.

And finally...

Just a word on Stoke. I'm not sure what to think about Stoke. I've heard quite a few people now say that they think Stoke might struggle in the league this year, and I think there's a chance they might be right. I think they have too much firepower (and too good a home crowd) to actually go down, but I think they will struggle. The graph for last season shows how their results waned towards the end, and I think maybe their small squad is being found out. The biggest thing though is that their start consists of playing Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United before the end of October, so backing them for relegation at 6.6 with a view to laying it off looks good.