I am very pleased to say that I have survived a whole year in the blogging world, and I am still as enthusiastic as I was when I started. When looking back to my first post exactly a year ago today, there is a distinct innocence in the piece and it is extremely difficult to not end up being condescending towards myself, as I began my journey in blogging my betting life. I do feel however, that amongst my naivety is a necessary development path which I have slowly trudged along this past year, vastly expanding my knowledge and understanding of the industry along the way. From 'tipping' over 1.5s to throwing money at moneymaking systems, I have matured as the year has passed and I hope this is something which I have been able to express in my posts. I know full well that I am far from the finished article, as I doubt anyone is, and I may look back in a years time and laugh at myself further. But, to quote myself, the fact remains that 'I am not a professional gambler, far from it, I just do it in my spare time to raise some extra cash. Mostly however, I do it simply because I enjoy it immensely and get huge satisfaction from researching a result which comes up trumps.' And this is all that really counts. I love the learning curve, and I love telling you all about it, and this has made for a half-decent blog.
I want to thank every for reading and commenting on the blog, to date I have had 8450 views over the past year, and this is more than I ever dreamed when starting up 365 days ago. I would particularly like to thank the guys at Centre Court Trading and Green All Over as, according to Blogger's stat monitor, they have directed a lot of traffic my way over the past year. Of course, I am also pleased to have recorded a profit of over £1000 since October, and I hope this coming season I can push on and achieve even greater profits.
I have really enjoyed this year, so much so that I am now seriously considering trying to get a job in the betting industry after my degree, (so if anyone can give me any help on that front, that would be great!)
Here's to another good year, best wishes people.
Josh
Thursday, 26 July 2012
Saturday, 21 July 2012
Review of updated Android Betfair App
Something a bit different today, but something which I'm sure is relevant to many of you.
The updated app has undergone a significant makeover as Betfair looks to increase their stake in the mobile empire. Mobile betting is undoubtedly the future, and 2012 has seen the emergence of many bookmakers attempting to utilise this technological innovation by improving their apps and offering free bets for mobile users. In their press release Betfair claimed that 44 million mobile bets had been placed in FY12, an increase of 122%, totalling £2.2bn worth of bets being placed. Despite this, I think the mobile industry boom is best summed up by the statistic that 10% of customers claimed to have traded a bet whilst on the toilet, along with 20% who admitted to using the app whilst at a wedding. The figures did not disclose how many of those users was the groom.
New Layout
The new skin and design of the app is sleek and sophisticated, especially when compared to apps from various bookmakers and exchanges. Betfair claims to be revolutionising the betting industry and the new interface certainly gives off that impression. Smooth and easy to navigate, the home screen presents you with most of the options you should need, without bombarding you with information. The slide-along option bar at the top of the screen allows easy access to the most popular sports, as well as an in-play and casino option. Other options are easily accessible from a drop-down list in the top corner. When in your account, all your information is neatly laid out for you making it easy to check existing bets and deposit or withdraw.
New Features
Whilst making it easier for the casual punter to place and review bets, the app has made basic steps towards helping traders utilise mobile betting also. Giving the user greater amounts of information seems to be the theme of the update, and the market depth and liquidity information is a simple yet crucial addition to the app. Furthermore, the market graphs provided are a more than welcome addition. Whilst it will be difficult for the app to ever truly replace the computer for serious traders, it does now allow them to do improved research and study the markets whilst on their travels. The press release boasted other minor new features such as bookmarking facilities and landscape mode, yet the update which I have so far found the most useful is the live bet 'what-if' and P&L feature. Since using my mobile to trade I have continuously become frustrated at the need to manually work out how much I need to lay or back in order to green up. The new what-if feature allows you to enter your stake whilst seeing how this will affect your bet, exactly as it would if you were to use your computer. This is extremely useful and will no doubt save a lot of skewed green books.
Speed
It is difficult to assess this particular part of the app due to differing network coverage and internet speeds, but on the whole I have found this to be a particular downfall of the software. As a Vodafone user it is not fair to compare the internet speed against other networks, so I can only compare the app to the mobile edition of the website. Whether it is because it has more data to load or any other reason, I don't know, but so far I have found the web version of Betfair considerably faster than the app, and therefore find this a considerable deterrent from using the app. Although using the app in-play has considerable benefits when compared to the mobile site, the distinct lack of speed is a serious problem for traders as timing is one of the key assets needed to turn a profit. At times I have had to reload pages on the app a number of time before they have appeared or updated, particularly with games which are in-play. I have not been using the app for too long, but at many times I have already found myself referring back to the web version for quicker access, and this does not bode particularly well for the future.
Conclusions
It is only fair to compare the app to those of other bookmakers, as well as Betdaq's and other exchanges. On this front, the bottom line is that Betfair's app is miles ahead of any other on the market. It is smoother, prettier and more detailed than any other, and should certainly help to maximise Betfair's profits from the mobile market in the future.
Speed is a distinct problem for the Android app however, in more ways than one. Betfair claimed the majority of their mobile bets last year from Android phones had been placed largely through the web version, due to their inefficient app. As one of those who didn't get on with the previous version of the app, I can say that the update has not done too much to dispel these demons. I feel an update is needed to reduce the loading time, because in every other aspect the app is sound. As a devout Android user however, my biggest qualm is with the timing of this new edition. Iphone users have long been enjoying an app of similar capabilities, and were also able to enjoy the special Euro 2012 app which was not available on Android. Considering the similarities in the mobile market share between Apple and Android, in the app download market Android actually dominates with a 44% market share compared to 31% at Apple, I find it particularly disappointing that it has taken Betfair such a long time to develop an app which brings both platforms level.
Overall rating: 7/10 - Miles ahead of similar apps but not yet up to high standards expected
The updated app has undergone a significant makeover as Betfair looks to increase their stake in the mobile empire. Mobile betting is undoubtedly the future, and 2012 has seen the emergence of many bookmakers attempting to utilise this technological innovation by improving their apps and offering free bets for mobile users. In their press release Betfair claimed that 44 million mobile bets had been placed in FY12, an increase of 122%, totalling £2.2bn worth of bets being placed. Despite this, I think the mobile industry boom is best summed up by the statistic that 10% of customers claimed to have traded a bet whilst on the toilet, along with 20% who admitted to using the app whilst at a wedding. The figures did not disclose how many of those users was the groom.
New Layout
The new skin and design of the app is sleek and sophisticated, especially when compared to apps from various bookmakers and exchanges. Betfair claims to be revolutionising the betting industry and the new interface certainly gives off that impression. Smooth and easy to navigate, the home screen presents you with most of the options you should need, without bombarding you with information. The slide-along option bar at the top of the screen allows easy access to the most popular sports, as well as an in-play and casino option. Other options are easily accessible from a drop-down list in the top corner. When in your account, all your information is neatly laid out for you making it easy to check existing bets and deposit or withdraw.
New Features
Whilst making it easier for the casual punter to place and review bets, the app has made basic steps towards helping traders utilise mobile betting also. Giving the user greater amounts of information seems to be the theme of the update, and the market depth and liquidity information is a simple yet crucial addition to the app. Furthermore, the market graphs provided are a more than welcome addition. Whilst it will be difficult for the app to ever truly replace the computer for serious traders, it does now allow them to do improved research and study the markets whilst on their travels. The press release boasted other minor new features such as bookmarking facilities and landscape mode, yet the update which I have so far found the most useful is the live bet 'what-if' and P&L feature. Since using my mobile to trade I have continuously become frustrated at the need to manually work out how much I need to lay or back in order to green up. The new what-if feature allows you to enter your stake whilst seeing how this will affect your bet, exactly as it would if you were to use your computer. This is extremely useful and will no doubt save a lot of skewed green books.
Speed
It is difficult to assess this particular part of the app due to differing network coverage and internet speeds, but on the whole I have found this to be a particular downfall of the software. As a Vodafone user it is not fair to compare the internet speed against other networks, so I can only compare the app to the mobile edition of the website. Whether it is because it has more data to load or any other reason, I don't know, but so far I have found the web version of Betfair considerably faster than the app, and therefore find this a considerable deterrent from using the app. Although using the app in-play has considerable benefits when compared to the mobile site, the distinct lack of speed is a serious problem for traders as timing is one of the key assets needed to turn a profit. At times I have had to reload pages on the app a number of time before they have appeared or updated, particularly with games which are in-play. I have not been using the app for too long, but at many times I have already found myself referring back to the web version for quicker access, and this does not bode particularly well for the future.
Conclusions
It is only fair to compare the app to those of other bookmakers, as well as Betdaq's and other exchanges. On this front, the bottom line is that Betfair's app is miles ahead of any other on the market. It is smoother, prettier and more detailed than any other, and should certainly help to maximise Betfair's profits from the mobile market in the future.
Speed is a distinct problem for the Android app however, in more ways than one. Betfair claimed the majority of their mobile bets last year from Android phones had been placed largely through the web version, due to their inefficient app. As one of those who didn't get on with the previous version of the app, I can say that the update has not done too much to dispel these demons. I feel an update is needed to reduce the loading time, because in every other aspect the app is sound. As a devout Android user however, my biggest qualm is with the timing of this new edition. Iphone users have long been enjoying an app of similar capabilities, and were also able to enjoy the special Euro 2012 app which was not available on Android. Considering the similarities in the mobile market share between Apple and Android, in the app download market Android actually dominates with a 44% market share compared to 31% at Apple, I find it particularly disappointing that it has taken Betfair such a long time to develop an app which brings both platforms level.
Overall rating: 7/10 - Miles ahead of similar apps but not yet up to high standards expected
Monday, 16 July 2012
It's been a while
It has certainly been a while since my last post. Maybe not in terms of chronology, but certainly in terms of sporting events. The Euros seems like months ago now, and Wimbledon came and went before anyone had any time to digest the woes of British sportsmen. On we march to the Olympics, and I am refusing to bow down to the typical British pessimism (despite the Summer's weather being the worst on record, significant security concerns, and David Beckham has been scandalously left out of the 'Team GB' squad ) and fully believe that our wonderful country can pull it off and do us all proud. One thing I would say is that the Scots should consider their bid for independence, I'd like to see them be any way involved in any Olympic Games in the next 1000 years if it wasn't for their trusty neighbours. Of course, should the whole thing be a disaster, their bid will be stronger than ever.
Enough sporting politics, onto the betting. I did promise a P+L of my Euros experience and I shall fulfill this as always. I have a few observations from my betting during the tournament however, and despite turning a good profit, I am not really satisfied with how it went. My largest source of income during the tourny was matched betting, and whilst there is nothing really wrong with that for it is a great way to earn free money and any person ignoring such opportunities is an obvious mug, I'm never really satisfied for it to be my main source of profit. Quite simply because it isn't real trading. The general theme was my matched betting paid for frivolous losses elsewhere in the tournament, which isn't necessarily how I would like to run things. But I cannot moan too much, I did still make a profit and I did make some good choices throughout. My outright winners market trades were a particular disaster as I have alluded to in previous posts, as backing France, Holland and Germany didn't pay very well surprisingly. The difference between doing it in a tournament and in, say, the Premier League, was that I was essentially backing them to win one or two games, and may as well have taken the match odds, whereas in the PL I would back over a specific period. Maybe it was a way for me to trick myself into thinking I wasn't a mug by betting on the Germans to beat Greece at odds of 1.3 or so, because that's essentially what I was actually doing, just in a different market. The France bet was slightly different because I hoped they would top their group with sexy football and drop to around 6.5ish, but it wasn't to be. Knockout football is quick and ruthless, and I need to remember that before backing wildly in Europe next season. On the other hand, my trades in other outright markets, such as bottom of the group and straight forecasts went very well, with no losses. Nothing really to note for the in-play betting, it was disappointing as a whole but I only made a minuscule loss overall. As for my discipline, I think it was good. I made the odd mistake here and there but overall I don't think discipline was the reason for big losses, just poor planning/decisions. It was my first major tournament after all, so I think i'll cut myself some slack.
Here are the results:
Enough sporting politics, onto the betting. I did promise a P+L of my Euros experience and I shall fulfill this as always. I have a few observations from my betting during the tournament however, and despite turning a good profit, I am not really satisfied with how it went. My largest source of income during the tourny was matched betting, and whilst there is nothing really wrong with that for it is a great way to earn free money and any person ignoring such opportunities is an obvious mug, I'm never really satisfied for it to be my main source of profit. Quite simply because it isn't real trading. The general theme was my matched betting paid for frivolous losses elsewhere in the tournament, which isn't necessarily how I would like to run things. But I cannot moan too much, I did still make a profit and I did make some good choices throughout. My outright winners market trades were a particular disaster as I have alluded to in previous posts, as backing France, Holland and Germany didn't pay very well surprisingly. The difference between doing it in a tournament and in, say, the Premier League, was that I was essentially backing them to win one or two games, and may as well have taken the match odds, whereas in the PL I would back over a specific period. Maybe it was a way for me to trick myself into thinking I wasn't a mug by betting on the Germans to beat Greece at odds of 1.3 or so, because that's essentially what I was actually doing, just in a different market. The France bet was slightly different because I hoped they would top their group with sexy football and drop to around 6.5ish, but it wasn't to be. Knockout football is quick and ruthless, and I need to remember that before backing wildly in Europe next season. On the other hand, my trades in other outright markets, such as bottom of the group and straight forecasts went very well, with no losses. Nothing really to note for the in-play betting, it was disappointing as a whole but I only made a minuscule loss overall. As for my discipline, I think it was good. I made the odd mistake here and there but overall I don't think discipline was the reason for big losses, just poor planning/decisions. It was my first major tournament after all, so I think i'll cut myself some slack.
Here are the results:
- Outright winners market trades: -£45
- Ante post bets with bookies: -£8
- Other outright market trades: +£30.17
- In-play trading: -£0.51
- Matched betting: +£108.22
Total: +£84.89
I say this at about the same time every year, but I wish I knew how to trade tennis properly! I can see the potential for good profit there with the markets flipping how they do, but I really don't think I have the time to dedicate enough of myself to fully understanding it and taking a good profit. It would probably involve giving up trading on football if I did, which is stupid. If it ain't broke don't fix it and all that. In the coming weeks I will be coming at you with my preview of the upcoming season, detailing how I intend to attack the markets in the opening months. Only one month and two days to go now, better get researching.
Enjoy your evening.
Saturday, 30 June 2012
Arrivederci
The impressive Italian performance on Thursday eliminated the Germans from the competition and all but concluded my betting activity for the Euros. As I said before, my only remaining bets were on the Germans, so having lost those I will not be getting involved in the final game. My outright bets have been quite disastrous over the last few weeks, which is not a good sign as the outrights are what I am looking to trade over next season, but I put this down to the tricky nature of a knockout tournament. If you lose a match in the Premier League your odds might drop but there is room for recovery. If you lose in the Euros you are out. I did manage to claw back some of the £35 I had on Germany by backing over 2.5 goals at 2-0, and bits of trading on the tennis. I will do a full P+L after the tournament has ended and everything has been settled up.
As for the final I have no idea how it will go. Spain look dominant but Italy have been the surprise package throughout, and Pirlo will be a good match for Spain, although it will be interesting to see if he can still find space when up against 6 midfielders. That's all from me today, I'm going out to enjoy the sun. I have landed myself a week's work experience at the Daily Telegraph next week, so blog posts may be a bit scarce next week, so bear with me.
As for the final I have no idea how it will go. Spain look dominant but Italy have been the surprise package throughout, and Pirlo will be a good match for Spain, although it will be interesting to see if he can still find space when up against 6 midfielders. That's all from me today, I'm going out to enjoy the sun. I have landed myself a week's work experience at the Daily Telegraph next week, so blog posts may be a bit scarce next week, so bear with me.
Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Please never end, Euros
We are currently coming to the end of 2 days without football from the Euros, and I wish it would come back already! Luckily we have other things to distract us like Wimbledon, but nothing can really compare to the high quality football tournament which has materialised over the last couple of weeks. In betting terms I have little left to look out for, apart from a decent bet on Ze Germans (2 £10 free bets and £35) as well as a £5 free bet on Gomez to top score. Last time I said that I placed a £50 bet on the Germans to win at 3.4 in the hope that they would stuff the Greeks, which they duly did, and I reduced my liability by £15 there, as I am willing to gamble on them beating the Italians on Thursday. The Italians are undoubtedly difficult opponents and I think that the attacking flair of the Germans will be stunted somewhat, but overall I think Germany have a better attacking force and should be able to squeeze through. I certainly don't buy all this 'the Italians always do well against Germany' nonsense. Different teams, different competitions, therefore meaning the events are unrelated and irrelevant. Had Germany never beaten Italy in 100 attempts we might face a different story as then a psychological impact inevitably falls upon the Germans, but as it is, I think the Germans won't even consider the history, especially as most of them won't have ever played Italy competitively. Previously I noted that the Spanish are very difficult to predict and I fully stand by that statement. Should it be a Germany-Spain final I will green up all bets for equal money on each outcome, as I really have no idea how Germany will fare against Spain. Two completely different yet very effective teams, though only one of them has proved themselves thus far.
The end of England's tournament on Sunday was sad to see, but I found myself not too disappointed and without any regrets. It's quite obvious we didn't deserve to win against Italy and I think we would have been trounced by the Germans in the semi-final, so overall it wasn't too disappointing. The team is still developing and at the end of the day, a centre midfield partnership containing a knackered Gerrard and Scott Parker do not possess enough creative quality to topple midfields containing Pirlo, Ozil or Alonso (to name just a few). This time it was not to be, as I think we all knew from the start, but it was a valiant effort with the resources we had. On a more positive note, it was a top effort from this guy to put off the Italians in the shootout, maybe Hart should have tried it? I wonder if that is in the rules or not?
Ascot was brilliant to watch and the highlights for me was watching Frankel storm home, and the Gold Cup which was a fantastic race. On the other hand, I was very excited to watch the Aussie horse race in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, but the 1/6 shot looked more like Black Pudding than Black Caviar. I was disappointed at the spectacle, as I think many were, oddly horse racing seems to love one horse dominating every race it races in, whereas in football if one team is at the top for too long people get restless and resentful. I highlighted Sporting Bet's excellent free bet offer which it turned out was too good to be true, as the bookie bottled it and withdrew the offer after the first day. This cost me about £50 in potential profit and I was pretty angry, but the blow was softened by another Bet365 in play offer which saw me take £30, despite big problems on the site at the time of the bet. I wish I hadn't been able to get my bet on now as they are giving out £50 to those who weren't able to place their bet as an apology! I wasn't to know though.
I have no plays on Wimbledon as tennis isn't my strong point, and the outright markets offer little value to my untrained eye. I have been doing small stake in play scalping with ups and downs, but I'm mainly confined to mobile betting as I have been watching the matches on the TV at work, meaning opportunities are limited. Apart from that though I am just looking forward to the semi-finals at the Euros, both should be good games, although I fear low-scoring. I hope you all enjoy them and have a good end to the competition.
Monday, 18 June 2012
Italian break
I have just come back from a weekend trip to Rome, and have just caught up with all the weekend's action. I did managed to catch the England and France games, as well as bits of the others, but not enough to give me my fix. From what I have seen, Portugal have made the most ground in the last round of fixtures, and Russia were the disaster story. I was pretty angry to see Russia not even qualify from such a strong position, as otherwise I think my accumulator had a very strong chance of winning. Although saying that, if you are going to bet at 21/1 you will get burnt, so I am not going to lament for too long, and hopefully France will top the group tomorrow and I will get a free bet refund. As I said in my previous post, my bets are all over the place at the moment and it is difficult to keep up with them all, even though I have them all logged! A few bets have been settled but I think I will post a P+L of them all after the group stages are over with. In my bet on France/England in a straight forecast at odds of 5, I decided to trade out at 2.34 for £20 all round so that I can enjoy tomorrow's games in peace.
In terms of new betting opportunities arriving, the aforementioned Portuguese and Germany are looking the strongest candidates for a 'value' bet. The Spanish are still joint favourites after their underwhelming match tonight, but I still don't feel like backing them. It is a difficult situation because the Spanish after playing boringly yet effectively, and are getting the job done quietly, just as they did two years ago at the World Cup. The problem is that their performances lack oomph and I can't see that too many people will be particularly excited by the prospect of watching or backing them at the moment. The Germans are the complete opposite and, whilst it lingers in my mind that they may come down with a bang, I have decided to back them at 3.4 for £50, in the hope that they will smash Greece and I can trade out for a free bet on Germany. Portugal look attractive at 9s with their quarter final against the Czechs their first port of call, one which I would expect them to win, but they have the problem of potentially facing Spain in the semis, something which I feel could hold the market back from shortening Portugal to a price worth the effort. Apart from that, there isn't much else to look at at the moment, Gomez looks good for the golden boot but the price isn't really great and I question whether Germany would take him off for Klose if they were struggling and needed a goal late on.
Away from football, this week sees the start of Royal Ascot as I am sure you are all aware of, and of course throws up the opportunity for Mike at Bonus Bagging to root through all of the bookmakers and give us the best offers. So far it has been a bit empty on the free bets side as the bookies look to be a bit knackered out from the Euros, but Sporting Bet are doing a fantastic offer which should see me be able to lock in around £60. On mobile only, they are giving you a £20 free bet EVERY DAY when you stake £20 on one of the races each day, meaning a potential £100 in free bets. Brilliant offer. I began to wonder whether the bookies got annoyed at people who blogged or wrote about matched betting as they don't want people to use their free bets in this way, but then I realised that it doesn't really matter for them as I will more than likely lose money to them, whilst winning my money on Betfair. I will be backing long odds horses in order to maximise the free bet, meaning that Sporting Bet will probably get most of my £100, whilst my profit will emerge in my Betfair account. It must be the only scenario in which everyone is a winner: Sporting Bet get my stakes, Betfair get my commission, and I get my profit overall. I'll keep my eyes peeled for other offers but there doesn't seem to be too many about at the moment.
Tomorrow should be a good day with Frankel racing and England playing, so I hope you all enjoy it and make a buck or two along the way.
In terms of new betting opportunities arriving, the aforementioned Portuguese and Germany are looking the strongest candidates for a 'value' bet. The Spanish are still joint favourites after their underwhelming match tonight, but I still don't feel like backing them. It is a difficult situation because the Spanish after playing boringly yet effectively, and are getting the job done quietly, just as they did two years ago at the World Cup. The problem is that their performances lack oomph and I can't see that too many people will be particularly excited by the prospect of watching or backing them at the moment. The Germans are the complete opposite and, whilst it lingers in my mind that they may come down with a bang, I have decided to back them at 3.4 for £50, in the hope that they will smash Greece and I can trade out for a free bet on Germany. Portugal look attractive at 9s with their quarter final against the Czechs their first port of call, one which I would expect them to win, but they have the problem of potentially facing Spain in the semis, something which I feel could hold the market back from shortening Portugal to a price worth the effort. Apart from that, there isn't much else to look at at the moment, Gomez looks good for the golden boot but the price isn't really great and I question whether Germany would take him off for Klose if they were struggling and needed a goal late on.
Away from football, this week sees the start of Royal Ascot as I am sure you are all aware of, and of course throws up the opportunity for Mike at Bonus Bagging to root through all of the bookmakers and give us the best offers. So far it has been a bit empty on the free bets side as the bookies look to be a bit knackered out from the Euros, but Sporting Bet are doing a fantastic offer which should see me be able to lock in around £60. On mobile only, they are giving you a £20 free bet EVERY DAY when you stake £20 on one of the races each day, meaning a potential £100 in free bets. Brilliant offer. I began to wonder whether the bookies got annoyed at people who blogged or wrote about matched betting as they don't want people to use their free bets in this way, but then I realised that it doesn't really matter for them as I will more than likely lose money to them, whilst winning my money on Betfair. I will be backing long odds horses in order to maximise the free bet, meaning that Sporting Bet will probably get most of my £100, whilst my profit will emerge in my Betfair account. It must be the only scenario in which everyone is a winner: Sporting Bet get my stakes, Betfair get my commission, and I get my profit overall. I'll keep my eyes peeled for other offers but there doesn't seem to be too many about at the moment.
Tomorrow should be a good day with Frankel racing and England playing, so I hope you all enjoy it and make a buck or two along the way.
Wednesday, 13 June 2012
Never doubt the Germans
Much has happened since my last post and this is turning into one of the best international tournaments I have been old enough to appreciate (which isn't really that many in fairness as I am only 20). Nevertheless, we have seen some shocks and surprises, as well as fantastic individual and team performances. Group A, which looked the most boring on paper has oozed entertainment so far, I just wish it never had to end. I was anticipating one shock from one of the big teams, as there normally tends to be, but I didn't really think it would come from Holland. I highlighted Denmark as a good side in my preview however, yet I didn't think that they would actually beat the Dutch! Holland have failed to perform though, with the exception of Sneijder who I think has been exemplary throughout, and look to be plummeting out of the competition. I was tempted to back them after their defeat to the Danes, as their odds rocketed sky high, leaving me with a slight suspicion that the market had slightly overreacted. I thought better of it though after seeing that their next game was Germany, and I am thankful that I did so because the Germans were superb as always.
From a betting point of view I sometimes feel that is a shame to bet on games, and after I have placed a bet I wish I had just let myself enjoy the spectacle in peace. This was a particular thought of mine when watching the France/England match, as I knew that I had my bet on France to win outright, as well as France to top the group with England second. As it happens a draw was a decent result for me, and I DID cheer when England scored so don't worry, I'm not that much of a traitor... not for £20 anyway. Generally speaking however my betting has been good and I look to be in profit thus far. It is a bit tough to tell at the moment with so many different bets on, and I will update the P+L properly and the end of the tournament, but I do know that I am in profit so far, and hopefully can continue this. I have, by and large, refrained from getting carried away in the vast amount of markets offered throughout the tournament as I did during the World Cup, but any time I have been tempted I have been able to win my money back in-play. In a rush of blood to the head I backed Ibrahim Afellay to be in the top 4 goalscorers at 18 after I found out he was starting the first match. I hoped he would score and I could lay it off but it wasn't too be and it was only £4 lost. I have won around £13 trading in-play since my last update, and I am yet to record a red amount thanks to being very careful with what I bet on, and only betting if I really see an opportunity. The collapse of Holland meant that they slipped to odds of 16 after their loss against Denmark, and I thankfully chose to take a loss of £8 on all outcomes in my £15 outright bet on them. It was tempting to leave the bet on, or even back them further, but I am glad I made the right choice in the end. The France bet is still ongoing as there has been no significant movements either way after their draw, but I am now doubting their prospects after watching Italy, who will be tough opponents in the quarter final if they are to progress. Talking of Italy, I was perplexed to see them priced at 4.3 to win the group after their very impressive draw with Spain. If both teams win their last two games, as would be expected, then the group will come down to goal difference only, and Spain have been playing with no striker... odd I thought. Saying that though, I thought the Italians looked brilliant but there is something about them and their corrupt nature which makes me not trust them.
In other bets, my group to score least goals bet was boosted tonight after 8 goals in Group B, who had previously only scored 2. As I predicted, Ronaldo has been woeful yet again for Portugal and has scored no goals, giving my Benzema to be top Madrid scorer bet hope, though he is goalless after one game, and Pepe scored today and is outrageously leading the charts. Laying Denmark to be bottom of their group work wonders and I greened up after their victory over the Dutch for £10 on all outcomes. Van Persie has been another who has been disappointing, but he was able to bag himself a goal tonight meaning that a Ladbrokes free bet should be on its way to my account, though that does only mean I break even so far for this offer. Lastly, the Bet365 offer I alluded to in the last post worked wonders again, and it was so simple to take £35 off of them, I just wish they did the offer every week.
A final sobering thought for today was the blog which I stumbled upon earlier this week, written by a gambling addict who is trying to get his life back on track. I admire the blogger (named Paddy) for trying to tackle his addiction, but at the same time it is scary to think that some for some people gambling goes too far. I will follow the blog with interest and I really really hope that he is able to resist his temptations, as it sounds as if he has lost most of what is important in his life already, and I hope it doesn't lead him to get in any deeper. I think the blog will really help him as it will allow him to express everything he can't express in real life through the window of anonymity, so I hope he keeps it up. Good luck to him. http://betfair2ga.blogspot.co.uk/
From a betting point of view I sometimes feel that is a shame to bet on games, and after I have placed a bet I wish I had just let myself enjoy the spectacle in peace. This was a particular thought of mine when watching the France/England match, as I knew that I had my bet on France to win outright, as well as France to top the group with England second. As it happens a draw was a decent result for me, and I DID cheer when England scored so don't worry, I'm not that much of a traitor... not for £20 anyway. Generally speaking however my betting has been good and I look to be in profit thus far. It is a bit tough to tell at the moment with so many different bets on, and I will update the P+L properly and the end of the tournament, but I do know that I am in profit so far, and hopefully can continue this. I have, by and large, refrained from getting carried away in the vast amount of markets offered throughout the tournament as I did during the World Cup, but any time I have been tempted I have been able to win my money back in-play. In a rush of blood to the head I backed Ibrahim Afellay to be in the top 4 goalscorers at 18 after I found out he was starting the first match. I hoped he would score and I could lay it off but it wasn't too be and it was only £4 lost. I have won around £13 trading in-play since my last update, and I am yet to record a red amount thanks to being very careful with what I bet on, and only betting if I really see an opportunity. The collapse of Holland meant that they slipped to odds of 16 after their loss against Denmark, and I thankfully chose to take a loss of £8 on all outcomes in my £15 outright bet on them. It was tempting to leave the bet on, or even back them further, but I am glad I made the right choice in the end. The France bet is still ongoing as there has been no significant movements either way after their draw, but I am now doubting their prospects after watching Italy, who will be tough opponents in the quarter final if they are to progress. Talking of Italy, I was perplexed to see them priced at 4.3 to win the group after their very impressive draw with Spain. If both teams win their last two games, as would be expected, then the group will come down to goal difference only, and Spain have been playing with no striker... odd I thought. Saying that though, I thought the Italians looked brilliant but there is something about them and their corrupt nature which makes me not trust them.
In other bets, my group to score least goals bet was boosted tonight after 8 goals in Group B, who had previously only scored 2. As I predicted, Ronaldo has been woeful yet again for Portugal and has scored no goals, giving my Benzema to be top Madrid scorer bet hope, though he is goalless after one game, and Pepe scored today and is outrageously leading the charts. Laying Denmark to be bottom of their group work wonders and I greened up after their victory over the Dutch for £10 on all outcomes. Van Persie has been another who has been disappointing, but he was able to bag himself a goal tonight meaning that a Ladbrokes free bet should be on its way to my account, though that does only mean I break even so far for this offer. Lastly, the Bet365 offer I alluded to in the last post worked wonders again, and it was so simple to take £35 off of them, I just wish they did the offer every week.
A final sobering thought for today was the blog which I stumbled upon earlier this week, written by a gambling addict who is trying to get his life back on track. I admire the blogger (named Paddy) for trying to tackle his addiction, but at the same time it is scary to think that some for some people gambling goes too far. I will follow the blog with interest and I really really hope that he is able to resist his temptations, as it sounds as if he has lost most of what is important in his life already, and I hope it doesn't lead him to get in any deeper. I think the blog will really help him as it will allow him to express everything he can't express in real life through the window of anonymity, so I hope he keeps it up. Good luck to him. http://betfair2ga.blogspot.co.uk/
Saturday, 9 June 2012
A good start, but I won't jump on Russia thanks
The Euros kicked off with a bang yesterday and it was a good day all round for myself. Poland vs Greece luckily wasn't the bore fest that everyone was expecting (though it did still end up under 2.5), and the Russia match was very entertaining from start to finish. The Russians played some brilliant football at times and, with better finishing, they could have won by even more. The reaction in the betting markets after the game however, was a bit over the top. It is quite natural for Russia to shorten in many of the markets, but I think we will see a drift by the end of the week, as none of the major forces have played yet. The fact still remains that Russia will have to play a team from group B in the quarters, most likely Holland or Germany, and I still question their ability to beat either of those, or even Portugal if they are to progress. It's never really a good idea to enter the betting market AFTER the reaction (unless you're laying of course), so I will not be backing Russia any time soon.
From a personal point of view, the matches played out beautifully for all of my bets. In addition to my bets outlined in the previous post, I added France and Netherlands in the outright market for £15 each, group C to be the lowest scoring group (as advised on my other blog), a mad long accumulator of all the opening matches (only a pound's worth), and Van Persie was selected to be my man for the Ladbrokes top scorer free bet offer. Along with these, the bookies are doing a lot of spontaneous offers throughout the days and Paddy Power have restarted their enhanced odds specials (for more details see my Paddy 'ell post from a few weeks back). Coral have also cottoned on to the idea and did their first enhanced special on Twitter yesterday (which I missed), so I will be keeping a watchful eye over their Twitter pages in the next few weeks. Bet365 are doing their brilliant £50 free in-play offer which should see me take around £30 guaranteed. If you don't know how to match bet this free bet there are guides online, it is quite straightforward and is an excellent opportunity for a small bonus. My outright group winner accumulator had a good start yesterday as Russia won emphatically and the other two drew, leaving Russia in pole position for next week. It was also a big boost for my bet on group C to be the lowest scoring group, as before the kick off group A were favourites for this, but 7 goals soon corrected that. And lastly the mug accumulator I put on went to plan as I had draw in Poland game then a Russia win, so only 6 more results to go! I won back my £1 stake though and a bit more as I took £4.32 for laying 2-1 in the Russia match, in my only real bet during the match.
Tonight I have Germany and Holland to win, and would like them both to win for my outright bets too. Preferably Germany will spank Portugal and Holland only just beat Denmark, but again I want to see lots of goals! Good luck everyone, yesterday was brilliant and the weekend's line up looks even better. Enjoy.
From a personal point of view, the matches played out beautifully for all of my bets. In addition to my bets outlined in the previous post, I added France and Netherlands in the outright market for £15 each, group C to be the lowest scoring group (as advised on my other blog), a mad long accumulator of all the opening matches (only a pound's worth), and Van Persie was selected to be my man for the Ladbrokes top scorer free bet offer. Along with these, the bookies are doing a lot of spontaneous offers throughout the days and Paddy Power have restarted their enhanced odds specials (for more details see my Paddy 'ell post from a few weeks back). Coral have also cottoned on to the idea and did their first enhanced special on Twitter yesterday (which I missed), so I will be keeping a watchful eye over their Twitter pages in the next few weeks. Bet365 are doing their brilliant £50 free in-play offer which should see me take around £30 guaranteed. If you don't know how to match bet this free bet there are guides online, it is quite straightforward and is an excellent opportunity for a small bonus. My outright group winner accumulator had a good start yesterday as Russia won emphatically and the other two drew, leaving Russia in pole position for next week. It was also a big boost for my bet on group C to be the lowest scoring group, as before the kick off group A were favourites for this, but 7 goals soon corrected that. And lastly the mug accumulator I put on went to plan as I had draw in Poland game then a Russia win, so only 6 more results to go! I won back my £1 stake though and a bit more as I took £4.32 for laying 2-1 in the Russia match, in my only real bet during the match.
Tonight I have Germany and Holland to win, and would like them both to win for my outright bets too. Preferably Germany will spank Portugal and Holland only just beat Denmark, but again I want to see lots of goals! Good luck everyone, yesterday was brilliant and the weekend's line up looks even better. Enjoy.
Tuesday, 5 June 2012
I CANNOT WAIT FOR EURO 2012
Good afternoon everyone, only three days to go until the start of the Euros and, you may have already guessed, but I cannot wait. Us Brits are being spoiled this summer, what with the Jubilee this weekend (I'm not really a royalist but yesterday made me proud), the Euros, Olympics, Wimbledon etc. We even have dear little Republic of Ireland in the Euros and, although they aren't British, we like to pretend they are when they do something good. So anyway, today I will be telling you all my thoughts and betting ideas for the Euros where I will be attempting to make a few quid. I must first announce a disclaimer though: I have little knowledge of International football (as most people, if they were true to themselves, would also concede). Naturally I have watched more of the bigger teams, and will have watched all the players for the EPL over the year, but when put in to international perspective we all know this means little. This means that any betting over the next few weeks will, by the majority (I'm not accusing you all of ignorance), be more of a risk than normal. In order to counter this I will be looking to make some money exploiting the offers and using matched betting (with help from our friends over at Bonus Bagging). But anyway, in the small event that I haven't completely talked you all out of moving swiftly on from this blog already, here are my thoughts and bets for the Euros.
I have been looking through the qualifying matches and the friendlies from the last few years, and all that I have decided is that they mean absolutely nothing. Most of the big teams swept through their qualifying groups against teams of vastly inferior caliber, giving us no real help on how they will do in the finals. The only team to slip up was Portugal, who only managed to come 2nd behind Denmark, who are in their group at the finals, along with Germany and Holland. That group is undoubtedly the group of death, yet bar a German or Dutch slip up, I can't really see Portugal progressing. In my opinion, the team to watch in that group is Denmark, as I feel they have the potential to nick a point off one of the big 2, as well as potentially beating Portugal. Because of this I will be laying Denmark to finish bottom at 1.7. In addition to this I had a £10 free bet from Betdaq for the Euros, so I put it on Germany to win the tournament at 4.3. Ordinarily I would trade this is if they started strongly, but with it being free bet I think I will leave it for the duration of the tournament, or at least until they trade odds-on.
Over in England's group I have already placed a £20 bet on France 1st England 2nd at odds of 5. I did this a couple of weeks ago and I am now slightly regretting it, as I am beginning to doubt England's ability to even make it out of the group. I think I will leave the bet on, though trading opportunities will be a bit tough with the two teams playing each other in the first match. England are a confusing side and our thinking is not helped by the overly-optimistic or overly-pessimistic media, so I think I will attempt to stay out of the betting when England are concerned, and I will just watch and... enjoy? Should England lose to France the odds of them progressing will presumably get more attractive however, and I may choose to spend a penny or two on that angle, though I will be careful not to get sucked into the patriotic hole of doom. A couple of bookies have offers on group winners accumulators, and Sporting Bet's appears to be the best. 50% winnings enhancement if it is successful, and if it loses by one you will get a free bet refund. This is quite tasty and I will be backing France, Spain, Germany and Russia at 21/1 (plus a 50% enhancement). Nothing exciting there, all four are favourites, but at those odds it is worth £10, and I will probably chose to lay it if things are going to plan. Definitely more of a punt than a trade though.
Over to the goalscorer markets and these are always extremely tough, mainly for the reason that no one knows who is going to start for each team. Gomez and Van Persie lead the betting and this is naturally based on their club form and the fact that they both play for strong teams. If Germany are able to progress out of their group, they will face the 2nd placed team from Group A, so a pretty easy route to the semi-finals and an opportunity for Gomez to bag a few along the way. 1.66 on Germany to reach the semis looks attractive incidentally, but I think I will leave that one. Even so however, I don't think I will be betting on Gomez or anyone else in that market as it's too tough to call, so instead I will look at the markets for top goalscorer within each club. I have been looking for a way to oppose Ronaldo scoring many throughout the tournament, but his top goalscorer price is too high to lay and the under 1.5 goals option price is okay, but not too appealing. My thinking is that I don't think that Portugal will get out of their group, and all of their group games will be very tough as they are. Ronaldo struggles in the Portugal shirt, and will attempt to drag his team through to the quarters, but for all his talent, he tends to struggle when things are left solely to him. For these reasons I think backing Benzema to be top Madrid scorer is a good bet at 2.5. As a sidenote, Ladbrokes have offered 1.83 for Ronaldo to score a freekick during the tournament is a contender for the worst bet of the tournament. Don't get me wrong, I love Ronaldo and everything he does, but his free kick conversion rate is incredibly low. He will score 4 or 5 worldies a season, but miss about 40 or 50, no bet for me.
In addition to this I fancy Van Der Vaart to be Tottenham top goalscorer at 4.0. The other contenders are Defoe, no scorer, Modric, Kranjcar and Parker. It remains to be seen if the Dutch will start with one up top as usual, or go with both Van Persie and Huntelaar, but if it is the former, I expect Van Der Vaart to be a starter. Parker, Kranjcar and Modric are not prolific goalscorers and, whilst Defoe has a goal or two in him, I can't see him getting in the team ahead of Welbeck or Carroll. If he fails to beat these two, then it is unlikely that he will have any chance when Rooney enters the fold again. Based on this therefore, I think that just one goal could be enough for VDV and as I predict the Dutch to make the Semis at least, this bet stands a good chance.
I do believe that that is all for now. Ladbrokes have an offer on the Top Goalscorer market - bet £20+ on someone, and every goal they score you will receive a £5 free bet. I will take this by betting on either Van Persie or Gomez (yet to be decided, any thoughts?) and laying them on Betfair for a small loss. One goal and free bet should put me in profit so this could potentially be a tasty offer. I will more than likely be betting more throughout the tournament but these are all of my pre-tournament bets. I'm going to be keeping my stakes low though, as like I said, it is a bit of a minefield and I don't want to blow a load on it. Please let me know your thoughts and what you personally are going for this tournament. I hope you enjoy it immensely and make a few quid along the way. And, although I am one of the pessimists, they play the most boring football, they always disappoint and the treatment of Rio has been a disgrace, come on ENGLAND! Good luck everyone.
Bets:
I have been looking through the qualifying matches and the friendlies from the last few years, and all that I have decided is that they mean absolutely nothing. Most of the big teams swept through their qualifying groups against teams of vastly inferior caliber, giving us no real help on how they will do in the finals. The only team to slip up was Portugal, who only managed to come 2nd behind Denmark, who are in their group at the finals, along with Germany and Holland. That group is undoubtedly the group of death, yet bar a German or Dutch slip up, I can't really see Portugal progressing. In my opinion, the team to watch in that group is Denmark, as I feel they have the potential to nick a point off one of the big 2, as well as potentially beating Portugal. Because of this I will be laying Denmark to finish bottom at 1.7. In addition to this I had a £10 free bet from Betdaq for the Euros, so I put it on Germany to win the tournament at 4.3. Ordinarily I would trade this is if they started strongly, but with it being free bet I think I will leave it for the duration of the tournament, or at least until they trade odds-on.
Over in England's group I have already placed a £20 bet on France 1st England 2nd at odds of 5. I did this a couple of weeks ago and I am now slightly regretting it, as I am beginning to doubt England's ability to even make it out of the group. I think I will leave the bet on, though trading opportunities will be a bit tough with the two teams playing each other in the first match. England are a confusing side and our thinking is not helped by the overly-optimistic or overly-pessimistic media, so I think I will attempt to stay out of the betting when England are concerned, and I will just watch and... enjoy? Should England lose to France the odds of them progressing will presumably get more attractive however, and I may choose to spend a penny or two on that angle, though I will be careful not to get sucked into the patriotic hole of doom. A couple of bookies have offers on group winners accumulators, and Sporting Bet's appears to be the best. 50% winnings enhancement if it is successful, and if it loses by one you will get a free bet refund. This is quite tasty and I will be backing France, Spain, Germany and Russia at 21/1 (plus a 50% enhancement). Nothing exciting there, all four are favourites, but at those odds it is worth £10, and I will probably chose to lay it if things are going to plan. Definitely more of a punt than a trade though.
Over to the goalscorer markets and these are always extremely tough, mainly for the reason that no one knows who is going to start for each team. Gomez and Van Persie lead the betting and this is naturally based on their club form and the fact that they both play for strong teams. If Germany are able to progress out of their group, they will face the 2nd placed team from Group A, so a pretty easy route to the semi-finals and an opportunity for Gomez to bag a few along the way. 1.66 on Germany to reach the semis looks attractive incidentally, but I think I will leave that one. Even so however, I don't think I will be betting on Gomez or anyone else in that market as it's too tough to call, so instead I will look at the markets for top goalscorer within each club. I have been looking for a way to oppose Ronaldo scoring many throughout the tournament, but his top goalscorer price is too high to lay and the under 1.5 goals option price is okay, but not too appealing. My thinking is that I don't think that Portugal will get out of their group, and all of their group games will be very tough as they are. Ronaldo struggles in the Portugal shirt, and will attempt to drag his team through to the quarters, but for all his talent, he tends to struggle when things are left solely to him. For these reasons I think backing Benzema to be top Madrid scorer is a good bet at 2.5. As a sidenote, Ladbrokes have offered 1.83 for Ronaldo to score a freekick during the tournament is a contender for the worst bet of the tournament. Don't get me wrong, I love Ronaldo and everything he does, but his free kick conversion rate is incredibly low. He will score 4 or 5 worldies a season, but miss about 40 or 50, no bet for me.
In addition to this I fancy Van Der Vaart to be Tottenham top goalscorer at 4.0. The other contenders are Defoe, no scorer, Modric, Kranjcar and Parker. It remains to be seen if the Dutch will start with one up top as usual, or go with both Van Persie and Huntelaar, but if it is the former, I expect Van Der Vaart to be a starter. Parker, Kranjcar and Modric are not prolific goalscorers and, whilst Defoe has a goal or two in him, I can't see him getting in the team ahead of Welbeck or Carroll. If he fails to beat these two, then it is unlikely that he will have any chance when Rooney enters the fold again. Based on this therefore, I think that just one goal could be enough for VDV and as I predict the Dutch to make the Semis at least, this bet stands a good chance.
I do believe that that is all for now. Ladbrokes have an offer on the Top Goalscorer market - bet £20+ on someone, and every goal they score you will receive a £5 free bet. I will take this by betting on either Van Persie or Gomez (yet to be decided, any thoughts?) and laying them on Betfair for a small loss. One goal and free bet should put me in profit so this could potentially be a tasty offer. I will more than likely be betting more throughout the tournament but these are all of my pre-tournament bets. I'm going to be keeping my stakes low though, as like I said, it is a bit of a minefield and I don't want to blow a load on it. Please let me know your thoughts and what you personally are going for this tournament. I hope you enjoy it immensely and make a few quid along the way. And, although I am one of the pessimists, they play the most boring football, they always disappoint and the treatment of Rio has been a disgrace, come on ENGLAND! Good luck everyone.
Bets:
- Laying Denmark to finish bottom of Group B @ 1.70
- Group D straight forecast: France/England @ 5.0
- To win groups: France, Germany, Spain, Russia @ 21/1 (plus add-ons)
- Benzema to be top Real Madrid scorer @ 2.5
- Van Der Vaart to be top Tottenham scorer @ 4.0
- Germany to win outright @ 4.3
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