Please never end, Euros

We are currently coming to the end of 2 days without football from the Euros, and I wish it would come back already! Luckily we have other things to distract us like Wimbledon, but nothing can really compare to the high quality football tournament which has materialised over the last couple of weeks. In betting terms I have little left to look out for, apart from a decent bet on Ze Germans (2 £10 free bets and £35) as well as a £5 free bet on Gomez to top score. Last time I said that I placed a £50 bet on the Germans to win at 3.4 in the hope that they would stuff the Greeks, which they duly did, and I reduced my liability by £15 there, as I am willing to gamble on them beating the Italians on Thursday. The Italians are undoubtedly difficult opponents and I think that the attacking flair of the Germans will be stunted somewhat, but overall I think Germany have a better attacking force and should be able to squeeze through. I certainly don't buy all this 'the Italians always do well against Germany' nonsense. Different teams, different competitions, therefore meaning the events are unrelated and irrelevant. Had Germany never beaten Italy in 100 attempts we might face a different story as then a psychological impact inevitably falls upon the Germans, but as it is, I think the Germans won't even consider the history, especially as most of them won't have ever played Italy competitively. Previously I noted that the Spanish are very difficult to predict and I fully stand by that statement. Should it be a Germany-Spain final I will green up all bets for equal money on each outcome, as I really have no idea how Germany will fare against Spain. Two completely different yet very effective teams, though only one of them has proved themselves thus far.

The end of England's tournament on Sunday was sad to see, but I found myself not too disappointed and without any regrets. It's quite obvious we didn't deserve to win against Italy and I  think we would have been trounced by the Germans in the semi-final, so overall it wasn't too disappointing. The team is still developing and at the end of the day, a centre midfield partnership containing a knackered Gerrard and Scott Parker do not possess enough creative quality to topple midfields containing Pirlo, Ozil or Alonso (to name just a few). This time it was not to be, as I think we all knew from the start, but it was a valiant effort with the resources we had. On a more positive note, it was a top effort from this guy to put off the Italians in the shootout, maybe Hart should have tried it? I wonder if that is in the rules or not?

Ascot was brilliant to watch and the highlights for me was watching Frankel storm home, and the Gold Cup which was a fantastic race. On the other hand, I was very excited to watch the Aussie horse race in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, but the 1/6 shot looked more like Black Pudding than Black Caviar. I was disappointed at the spectacle, as I think many were, oddly horse racing seems to love one horse dominating every race it races in, whereas in football if one team is at the top for too long people get restless and resentful. I highlighted Sporting Bet's excellent free bet offer which it turned out was too good to be true, as the bookie bottled it and withdrew the offer after the first day. This cost me about £50 in potential profit and I was pretty angry, but the blow was softened by another Bet365 in play offer which saw me take £30, despite big problems on the site at the time of the bet. I wish I hadn't been able to get my bet on now as they are giving out £50 to those who weren't able to place their bet as an apology! I wasn't to know though. 

I have no plays on Wimbledon as tennis isn't my strong point, and the outright markets offer little value to my untrained eye. I have been doing small stake in play scalping with ups and downs, but I'm mainly confined to mobile betting as I have been watching the matches on the TV at work, meaning opportunities are limited. Apart from that though I am just looking forward to the semi-finals at the Euros, both should be good games, although I fear low-scoring. I hope you all enjoy them and have a good end to the competition. 

A good start, but I won't jump on Russia thanks

The Euros kicked off with a bang yesterday and it was a good day all round for myself. Poland vs Greece luckily wasn't the bore fest that everyone was expecting (though it did still end up under 2.5), and the Russia match was very entertaining from start to finish. The Russians played some brilliant football at times and, with better finishing, they could have won by even more. The reaction in the betting markets after the game however, was a bit over the top. It is quite natural for Russia to shorten in many of the markets, but I think we will see a drift by the end of the week, as none of the major forces have played yet. The fact still remains that Russia will have to play a team from group B in the quarters, most likely Holland or Germany, and I still question their ability to beat either of those, or even Portugal if they are to progress. It's never really a good idea to enter the betting market AFTER the reaction (unless you're laying of course), so I will not be backing Russia any time soon.

From a personal point of view, the matches played out beautifully for all of my bets. In addition to my bets outlined in the previous post, I added France and Netherlands in the outright market for £15 each, group C to be the lowest scoring group (as advised on my other blog), a mad long accumulator of all the opening matches (only a pound's worth), and Van Persie was selected to be my man for the Ladbrokes top scorer free bet offer. Along with these, the bookies are doing a lot of spontaneous offers throughout the days and Paddy Power have restarted their enhanced odds specials (for more details see my Paddy 'ell post from a few weeks back). Coral have also cottoned on to the idea and did their first enhanced special on Twitter yesterday (which I missed), so I will be keeping a watchful eye over their Twitter pages in the next few weeks. Bet365 are doing their brilliant £50 free in-play offer which should see me take around £30 guaranteed. If you don't know how to match bet this free bet there are guides online, it is quite straightforward and is an excellent opportunity for a small bonus. My outright group winner accumulator had a good start yesterday as Russia won emphatically and the other two drew, leaving Russia in pole position for next week. It was also a big boost for my bet on group C to be the lowest scoring group, as before the kick off group A were favourites for this, but 7 goals soon corrected that. And lastly the mug accumulator I put on went to plan as I had draw in Poland game then a Russia win, so only 6 more results to go! I won back my £1 stake though and a bit more as I took £4.32 for laying 2-1 in the Russia match, in my only real bet during the match.

Tonight I have Germany and Holland to win, and would like them both to win for my outright bets too. Preferably Germany will spank Portugal and Holland only just beat Denmark, but again I want to see lots of goals! Good luck everyone, yesterday was brilliant and the weekend's line up looks even better. Enjoy.

I CANNOT WAIT FOR EURO 2012

Good afternoon everyone, only three days to go until the start of the Euros and, you may have already guessed, but I cannot wait. Us Brits are being spoiled this summer, what with the Jubilee this weekend (I'm not really a royalist but yesterday made me proud), the Euros, Olympics, Wimbledon etc. We even have dear little Republic of Ireland in the Euros and, although they aren't British, we like to pretend they are when they do something good. So anyway, today I will be telling you all my thoughts and betting ideas for the Euros where I will be attempting to make a few quid. I must first announce a disclaimer though: I have little knowledge of International football (as most people, if they were true to themselves, would also concede). Naturally I have watched more of the bigger teams, and will have watched all the players for the EPL over the year, but when put in to international perspective we all know this means little. This means that any betting over the next few weeks will, by the majority (I'm not accusing you all of ignorance), be more of a risk than normal. In order to counter this I will be looking to make some money exploiting the offers and using matched betting (with help from our friends over at Bonus Bagging). But anyway, in the small event that I haven't completely talked you all out of moving swiftly on from this blog already, here are my thoughts and bets for the Euros.

I have been looking through the qualifying matches and the friendlies from the last few years, and all that I have decided is that they mean absolutely nothing. Most of the big teams swept through their qualifying groups against teams of vastly inferior caliber, giving us no real help on how they will do in the finals. The only team to slip up was Portugal, who only managed to come 2nd behind Denmark, who are in their group at the finals, along with Germany and Holland. That group is undoubtedly the group of death, yet bar a German or Dutch slip up, I can't really see Portugal progressing. In my opinion, the team to watch in that group is Denmark, as I feel they have the potential to nick a point off one of the big 2, as well as potentially beating Portugal. Because of this I will be laying Denmark to finish bottom at 1.7. In addition to this I had a £10 free bet from Betdaq for the Euros, so I put it on Germany to win the tournament at 4.3. Ordinarily I would trade this is if they started strongly, but with it being free bet I think I will leave it for the duration of the tournament, or at least until they trade odds-on.

Over in England's group I have already placed a £20 bet on France 1st England 2nd at odds of 5. I did this a couple of weeks ago and I am now slightly regretting it, as I am beginning to doubt England's ability to even make it out of the group. I think I will leave the bet on, though trading opportunities will be a bit tough with the two teams playing each other in the first match. England are a confusing side and our thinking is not helped by the overly-optimistic or overly-pessimistic media, so I think I will attempt to stay out of the betting when England are concerned, and I will just watch and... enjoy? Should England lose to France the odds of them progressing will presumably get more attractive however, and I may choose to spend a penny or two on that angle, though I will be careful not to get sucked into the patriotic hole of doom. A couple of bookies have offers on group winners accumulators, and Sporting Bet's appears to be the best. 50% winnings enhancement if it is successful, and if it loses by one you will get a free bet refund. This is quite tasty and I will be backing France, Spain, Germany and Russia at 21/1 (plus a 50% enhancement). Nothing exciting there, all four are favourites, but at those odds it is worth £10, and I will probably chose to lay it if things are going to plan. Definitely more of a punt than a trade though.

Over to the goalscorer markets and these are always extremely tough, mainly for the reason that no one knows who is going to start for each team. Gomez and Van Persie lead the betting and this is naturally based on their club form and the fact that they both play for strong teams. If Germany are able to progress out of their group, they will face the 2nd placed team from Group A, so a pretty easy route to the semi-finals and an opportunity for Gomez to bag a few along the way. 1.66 on Germany to reach the semis looks attractive incidentally, but I think I will leave that one. Even so however, I don't think I will be betting on Gomez or anyone else in that market as it's too tough to call, so instead I will look at the markets for top goalscorer within each club. I have been looking for a way to oppose Ronaldo scoring many throughout the tournament, but his top goalscorer price is too high to lay and the under 1.5 goals option price is okay, but not too appealing. My thinking is that I don't think that Portugal will get out of their group, and all of their group games will be very tough as they are. Ronaldo struggles in the Portugal shirt, and will attempt to drag his team through to the quarters, but for all his talent, he tends to struggle when things are left solely to him. For these reasons I think backing Benzema to be top Madrid scorer is a good bet at 2.5. As a sidenote, Ladbrokes have offered 1.83 for Ronaldo to score a freekick during the tournament is a contender for the worst bet of the tournament. Don't get me wrong, I love Ronaldo and everything he does, but his free kick conversion rate is incredibly low. He will score 4 or 5 worldies a season, but miss about 40 or 50, no bet for me.

In addition to this I fancy Van Der Vaart to be Tottenham top goalscorer at 4.0. The other contenders are Defoe, no scorer, Modric, Kranjcar and Parker. It remains to be seen if the Dutch will start with one up top as usual, or go with both Van Persie and Huntelaar, but if it is the former, I expect Van Der Vaart to be a starter. Parker, Kranjcar and Modric are not prolific goalscorers and, whilst Defoe has a goal or two in him, I can't see him getting in the team ahead of Welbeck or Carroll. If he fails to beat these two, then it is unlikely that he will have any chance when Rooney enters the fold again. Based on this therefore, I think that just one goal could be enough for VDV and as I predict the Dutch to make the Semis at least, this bet stands a good chance.

I do believe that that is all for now. Ladbrokes have an offer on the Top Goalscorer market - bet £20+ on someone, and every goal they score you will receive a £5 free bet. I will take this by betting on either Van Persie or Gomez (yet to be decided, any thoughts?) and laying them on Betfair for a small loss. One goal and free bet should put me in profit so this could potentially be a tasty offer. I will more than likely be betting more throughout the tournament but these are all of my pre-tournament bets. I'm going to be keeping my stakes low though, as like I said, it is a bit of a minefield and I don't want to blow a load on it. Please let me know your thoughts and what you personally are going for this tournament. I hope you enjoy it immensely and make a few quid along the way. And, although I am one of the pessimists, they play the most boring football, they always disappoint and the treatment of Rio has been a disgrace, come on ENGLAND! Good luck everyone.

Bets:

• Laying Denmark to finish bottom of Group B @ 1.70
• Group D straight forecast: France/England @ 5.0
• To win groups: France, Germany, Spain, Russia @ 21/1 (plus add-ons)
• Benzema to be top Real Madrid scorer @ 2.5
• Van Der Vaart to be top Tottenham scorer @ 4.0
• Germany to win outright @ 4.3