Last Post Ever

This will be the last post ever on this blog, or in fact any blog, if the Mayans are correct about the end of the world today. If that is to be the case then this post is largely pointless, but I am a gambling man and I'm willing to make a little punt on waking up bright eyed and ready for the weekend's fixtures tomorrow morning. Worst Bet of the Week award goes to the man who placed 50p on the world ending with Coral at 1,000,000/1. Absolute genius. 

Anyway, back to betting talk and I was given a Christmas treat earlier by Sporting Bet who are offering a £100 free bet if you make 10 bets of £10 between now and New Year's Day. This is a massive offer, and you should be able to make £70 at least by matching it effectively. The beauty of it is the minimum odds on the qualifying bets are 1.2, meaning you can find close match odds for a tiny liability. I have already placed all of my qualifying bets, making a small loss of around £5 and it took me less than half an hour, easy money. If you're planning on doing this bet, I would act quickly as Sporting Bet have been known to withdraw their offers rather swiftly after building up big liabilities. I'm sure they won't be the only ones to offer a Christmas gift, so I look forward to that.

Back in the Premier League my lay of West Brom for the top 10 at 1.283 is continuing to flourish as the Baggies are now out to 1.67 after collecting just one point from their last four matches. It was good news down at the bottom of the table as QPR finally won a match, and the market reacted massively jumping them from 1.62 to 1.87 for relegation. This, combined with a thrashing at the hands of Arsenal, had a knock on effect on Reading who are now as low as 1.16 to go down. This is a trying time of year for the lower teams and those who have relied upon a good starting 11 but lack depth in squad are likely to struggle. I expect this to be a crucial factor in QPR's rise out of the relegation zone.

Up at the top, United and City pulled further away from Chelsea after their exploits in Japan allowed Spurs to pull level with them on points in third place. They now sit 1.66 for a top 3 finish and, although they dispelled suggestions they might be jet-lagged by thrashing Leeds in midweek, I just wonder how they will handle 4 games in 11 days, especially with tough games away to Norwich and Everton. They still remain 4 points worse off than at the same time last season, although with a game in a hand this time, which is remarkable considering the level of their investment over the summer months. The previously depressed Arsenal fans have now realised that they are just 2 points off 3rd place, and it is surely not long before they nominate Wenger for a knighthood for the trillionth season in a row. They're now at 1.96 for a top 4 finish, while Spurs are 2.36. One to keep an eye on may be the price of 4.2 for them to finish in the top 3, although liquidity is currently a problem in that market.

That's all from me now, I need to do some last minute Christmas shopping! Enjoy your weekends people, hopefully we will still be here tomorrow for some festive fixtures.

Italian break

I have just come back from a weekend trip to Rome, and have just caught up with all the weekend's action. I did managed to catch the England and France games, as well as bits of the others, but not enough to give me my fix. From what I have seen, Portugal have made the most ground in the last round of fixtures, and Russia were the disaster story. I was pretty angry to see Russia not even qualify from such a strong position, as otherwise I think my accumulator had a very strong chance of winning. Although saying that, if you are going to bet at 21/1 you will get burnt, so I am not going to lament for too long, and hopefully France will top the group tomorrow and I will get a free bet refund. As I said in my previous post, my bets are all over the place at the moment and it is difficult to keep up with them all, even though I have them all logged! A few bets have been settled but I think I will post a P+L of them all after the group stages are over with. In my bet on France/England in a straight forecast at odds of 5, I decided to trade out at 2.34 for £20 all round so that I can enjoy tomorrow's games in peace.

In terms of new betting opportunities arriving, the aforementioned Portuguese and Germany are looking the strongest candidates for a 'value' bet. The Spanish are still joint favourites after their underwhelming match tonight, but I still don't feel like backing them. It is a difficult situation because the Spanish after playing boringly yet effectively, and are getting the job done quietly, just as they did two years ago at the World Cup. The problem is that their performances lack oomph and I can't see that too many people will be particularly excited by the prospect of watching or backing them at the moment. The Germans are the complete opposite and, whilst it lingers in my mind that they may come down with a bang, I have decided to back them at 3.4 for £50, in the hope that they will smash Greece and I can trade out for a free bet on Germany. Portugal look attractive at 9s with their quarter final against the Czechs their first port of call, one which I would expect them to win, but they have the problem of potentially facing Spain in the semis, something which I feel could hold the market back from shortening Portugal to a price worth the effort. Apart from that, there isn't much else to look at at the moment, Gomez looks good for the golden boot but the price isn't really great and I question whether Germany would take him off for Klose if they were struggling and needed a goal late on.

Away from football, this week sees the start of Royal Ascot as I am sure you are all aware of, and of course throws up the opportunity for Mike at Bonus Bagging to root through all of the bookmakers and give us the best offers. So far it has been a bit empty on the free bets side as the bookies look to be a bit knackered out from the Euros, but Sporting Bet are doing a fantastic offer which should see me be able to lock in around £60. On mobile only, they are giving you a £20 free bet EVERY DAY when you stake £20 on one of the races each day, meaning a potential £100 in free bets. Brilliant offer. I began to wonder whether the bookies got annoyed at people who blogged or wrote about matched betting as they don't want people to use their free bets in this way, but then I realised that it doesn't really matter for them as I will more than likely lose money to them, whilst winning my money on Betfair. I will be backing long odds horses in order to maximise the free bet, meaning that Sporting Bet will probably get most of my £100, whilst my profit will emerge in my Betfair account. It must be the only scenario in which everyone is a winner: Sporting Bet get my stakes, Betfair get my commission, and I get my profit overall. I'll keep my eyes peeled for other offers but there doesn't seem to be too many about at the moment.

Tomorrow should be a good day with Frankel racing and England playing, so I hope you all enjoy it and make a buck or two along the way.