Cheltenham Bonus Bagging

The weekend was a big one for the relegation scrap, and it is so tight down there that it looks as though it will be like this for the remaining 9 game weeks. Wins for Villa and QPR saw a shift in relegation odds, while the markets now appear to have written Reading off completely, despite their burst of form at the start of 2013. Reading are now 1.13 to go down, while Villa have climbed to 2.3. QPR's win did little in terms of jumping out of the relegation zone, as Villa's win ensured they are still four points adrift, and this was perhaps noticed by the markets which readjusted to make QPR 1.57 for the drop, despite initially jumping to 1.7+ immediately after their victory. Their victory over Sunderland was of course crucial however, and if they can carry this form into the upcoming relegation 6-pointers then they should stand a good chance. Elsewhere in the table, Spurs lost at Anfield and drifted to 1.44 for a top 4 spot, despite the four teams around them not playing. Liverpool, every markets friend, are now 1.49 to finish in the top 6, despite being level on points with Everton, who have a game in hand.

The big news this week will no doubt come from Cheltenham, and the bookies are doing their best to come out on top with the best offers. This is a good time to remind everyone about the extremely successful and profitable matched betting service 'Bonus Bagging', available for just £27. I should note I don't tend to do sales pitches, and I am not in anyway involved with this service other than on a consumer level, but it is the only service which has consistently earned me money and everyone really should be a member. My email account has been going crazy this week as Mike, 'Mr BonusBagging', has been carefully sorting through all the free bets and offers available to ensure Cheltenham is a profitable festival. Many of the offers available take work well over my mathematical knowledge to become profitable, but Mike produces video and written guides as well as spreadsheets and calculators to make each one as easy as possible. Whether you use these profits to fund your Cheltenham bank or just for some extra cash, it is really a no brainer.

Enjoy the festival.

The world goes on

Last night in Manchester was predictably dramatic, albeit slightly tarnished as a spectacle. There are plenty of unbalanced opinions doing the rounds at the moment, so I won't add mine. It is a bad year for English football however, with potentially no teams in the quarter finals (unless Arsenal can produce something incredible) since 1996, and that is a shame considering we have some very good sides this year, as well as the holders. The Betfair market Champions League winner market is currently suspended, but the bookies have Madrid as favourites at around 3.5, and I'm sure Munich's price of 4.2 won't last a great deal longer. It will depend on the draw, and whether Barca can pull their tie back.

Back to the Premier League and QPR continue to be unpredictable in their campaign for safety. They have been matched as low as 1.15 and as high as 7.8 throughout the season, but their victory away at Southampton has put them four points adrift of safety, and they are back out to 1.37 for the drop. This week they have a winnable game at home to Sunderland, while Villa and Reading play each other and Wigan play in the Cup. I would like to say that if they lose this weekend and there is a victor in the Villa-Reading match then it really is over for QPR, but there is just no telling. There are 10 games to go and this is more than enough in a relegation battle where 2 wins on the bounce take you out of trouble.

The race for the top 10 is hotting up nicely as well. Swansea and West Brom, you would think, have 8th and 9th sown up, which leaves 10th spot for feasibly any team down as far as Southampton. Six points separate 16th and 10th and a little run for any of these teams could secure a top 10 spot. Stoke are the favourites to take this place at 2.84, while the current 10th placed team Fulham are second favourites at 3.4. At the moment goal difference is separating Fulham, Stoke and West Ham, and a race as close as this could come down to such fine margins on the last day. I wouldn't like to call this one, so I will stick with my pre-season pick of Fulham.

Further up the table and if the markets are anything to go by, then the race for the top 4 is all but done. Spurs' huge victory over Arsenal at the weekend saw them shorten to 1.33, their lowest price of the season, while Arsenal are out to 3.25. Chelsea are at 1.26, despite sitting in 4th place currently. Like most things however, I still feel this has a long way to go and the 5 point gap between Arsenal and Chelsea is not insurmountable. Tottenham have the toughest fixture list out of the three, playing Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea and Man City in the next month or so, along with a 2-legged tie against Inter Milan. It is advantage Spurs at the moment but a lay at 1.33 would not be the worst decision in the world, the main difficulty would be how well Arsenal could put the pressure on. If, like me, Arsenal do not fill you with hope but you still think Spurs will drop some points, then backing Chelsea to finish top 3 at 1.96 could be a more appealing option.

At the top United appear to be running away with things. 1.05 for the title and with a 12 point lead it is hard to disagree with that price. I would not go as far to say it is over, but it is looking good for Fergi and co, and I decided to take a big loss on my lay of United to win, rather than let it run. If United lose to Chelsea on Sunday then we might see a small amount of panic creep in, but it is difficult to see them losing such a lead, regardless of what happened last year. Man City are at 21 to win the title incidentally.

We are into the final stretch of games once more, yet it only seems like yesterday I was preparing some preseason trades. How time flies. Cheltenham starts next week and I will be looking to take advantage of a few bookie offers, while also enjoying the festival. Keep your eyes peeled for free bets because there are normally a fair few about, with a potential to win decent amounts. Good luck with your bets and enjoy.

BetDash

Apologies for the lack of blogging recently, my 12,000 word dissertation is finally beginning to take its toll on me and I have not had a great deal of time for anything else. I just looked back over last year's posts and found my blogging activity petered off throughout February and March, so it must be something about this time of year. I have taken a little break from betting as I found that if I did not have time to sit down and do it properly, then I would just lose money, which was what I was beginning to do. I was only losing pounds here and there but I know enough to know that is the start of a slippery slope, so I have taken a break in order to focus on more important things right now. I still have a lot of liabilities in the outright markets to manage so I will just be looking at that for now. I'll go into detail on this in my next post.

What I did accidentally discover this week though was Paddy Power's 'BetDash', a game which challenges you to turn £100,000 into £1,000,000 in 10 days. If you reach the million, you are rewarded with between £45-£150 in real money, depending on your initial buy in. Reaching £700,000 and above also equals a cash reward. You can play for free but the reward is only tokens. I was quite surprised to find this as I had heard little about it from the usually very lairy PaddyPower, and was even more surprised to discover it was actually good. The game is not quite as straightforward as putting all your money on a 10/1 shot, there are restrictions and challenges to meet first, meaning it can only be done by gradual accumulation. You can challenge other people's bets as well as copying them, and can play along with your friends too. The main reason I was so impressed with the game is because I had concocted similar ideas in my own head before I found this; where a social and competitive element was added to punting. I am currently playing the game using a £5 free credit, which is gifted upon the start of your first game, but after that you can choose to buy in for £5 upwards. I know many people out there, even those who call themselves 'traders', like to have a 'fun bet' from time to time, so I think participation in something like this would help to satisfy such an urge without potentially ruining profits from elsewhere. It could also educate people on how to nurture and grow a bank slowly and efficiently.

Don't get me wrong though, BetDash is for fun. You cannot trade positions as all bets are placed on PaddyPower's betting platform, and you are rushed into chasing the million before your time runs out. Serious traders will not be interested, but for those of you who do like a 'fun bet', it is probably worth checking out, especially as the first one is free. I have little else to report from recent weeks, so enjoy the rest of your week and happy trading one and all.

A review of the odds

So here we are in February 2013 and the Premier League is entering its final third of the season. January transfers are all done with, meaning it is now just a desperate dash to the finish. Throughout the league, each point of contention is very tight and there seems to be many teams chasing each position.

Starting at the top then, the hunt for the Premier League crown unusually seems to be the least contentious area of the league, at least if the markets are anything to go by. Manchester United sit 9 points clear of their closest rivals with just 13 games remaining, and are currently as low as 1.15 to win the title. At present, this does seen a relatively fair price for a team who have obliterated all in their path thus far, while their noisy neighbours have struggled to live up to last years heights. As I alluded to in my last post however, football is a funny old game and momentum can shift in an instant. One poor result or injury can destroy a team and make people wonder why they never layed them while they had the chance. The majority of the country had proclaimed United champions last year before a shock loss against Wigan sparked a collapse at the crucial moment. I do think United will win this year, and I don't envisage a collapse like last season, but there is a long way to go yet and I expect City to close the gap in the next few months. Just think what a battering at the hands of Madrid could do to United's run...

Moving on and Spurs are now odds on at 1.95 to finish in the top four, as their good form is finally beginning to convince the markets that they might actually be able to qualify for Europe. The top 10 market is currently a bit unpredictable, as there are only 9 points between Liverpool in 7th and Newcastle in 15th, meaning any number of teams are still in with a shout. Newcastle, remarkably considering how much criticism they have had this year, are now only 3 points from the top 10, and sit at 3.4 for a top 10 finish. Their squad has had a bit of a French Revolution and they look a lot stronger than in the first half of the season, 3.4 could be a steal come May. Fulham are only 2 points off, yet are a large 4.4 to reach the top ten, with Sunderland 2.88, despite being just a point off the top half.

Down at the bottom and the woes of QPR continue. It is getting to the stage now when all the 'they can't possibly go down' people are beginning to think that actually they might, including me. They need to start scoring goals quickly and turning these draws into wins. I have a large position on QPR not to go down, but I am beginning to believe I might have to take a loss on the trade in the next few weeks. They currently sit 1.47, while there are three other odds-on teams for the drop: Wigan, Reading and Villa. The resurgent Southampton are currently 3.4.

That's all from me, enjoy your weekend and stay green.

Getting ahead of the game

Relax, this is not going to be a post in which I try to sell you the latest gizmo to help you become a trading miracle, despite what the title suggests. Instead I will be looking at the differences and difficulties in picking your trades at the right times, in order to catch the price wave you desire rather than hit a wall.

This season has been my biggest learning curve yet as I have taken on a new challenge in trading the long term markets. So far it has been a fairly positive experience as I am currently in profit, but this has not been without some trials and tribulations. On occasions I think I have reacted to the form of teams and made a move, rather than anticipating a change in form, which is the crucial element. This has mainly resulted in a red screen and it is something which I will need to expel from my game if I am to make good profits. To put this into simpler terms, it is the equivalent of a football match which sees a goal scored in the first 5 minutes, and backing over 2.5 goals after the goal has been scored. With a pre-match price around evens for the over 2.5, an early goal would see the price plummet to around 1.4, and in my opinion backing it at this stage would be rather stupid (though I have been known to do such a thing in a less disciplined era!) Backing at this stage and this price would represent little value and more often than not would lead to losses, particularly if you are looking to trade the bet rather than punt outright. In my opinion there are only two reasons for making such a bet: either because you are reacting to the electric start to the match and think there will be more goals, or because you were waiting for a bigger price on the overs before getting involved, and were frustrated at the early goal, yet buoyed that your pre-match prediction looks to be taking place. This is a classic case of reaction over anticipation, which will commonly lead to unsuccessful trading in the long run.

With the outright markets, the trend remains the same but it is even more crucial to make your trades at the right times because of liquidity problems. It is tempting at times to back with the form book, for instance when a team is on a losing streak and playing diabolical football it sometimes seems incomprehensible that they may ever regain form, but of course they normally do. It is unusual that a team goes through a whole season without a win, losing every match along the way, and similarly so that a team will win every game. Even Arsenal's 'Invincibles' were 2nd in the league at the halfway point in 03/04, having drawn 6 of 19 matches. The reason for this post is that I was considering my potential next moves earlier in the week, and the two which came to my head were Norwich to be relegated and Liverpool top 4 both as back-to-lays. When looking at the form table however, it soon became evident why these two were in my mind, as Liverpool sit 4th from the last 6 matches, and Norwich bottom. Norwich are now 7.4 for relegation, after being around 12.5 before their slump in form. Liverpool are 8 for the top 4 now, after being matched as high as 13 just a few weeks ago. There is little point in taking these prices now as the movement has already happened. There are exceptions to this of course, and either of these teams might continue in the same form, but mostly taking trades in this manner will lead to disaster. Looking at the form table a more realistic option might be backing Southampton for relegation at a generous 3.5, particularly as they are only four points from the drop zone.

I have battled with anticipation and reaction throughout the season, as can be demonstrated clearly by these two images: 

Backed at a low price of 4.7, not far from their lowest matched price this season, after a run of poor form. Layed at 12 for a loss.

Backed for top 6 at 1.733 after a run of poor form at the start of the season, layed at 1.4 for a profit after they picked up the pace.

The two images above really reflect the difference in my trades, and I am looking to expel the need to go with the trends after they have happened, however tempting it might be. QPR's home performance to Liverpool a few weeks ago showed a depleted, awful side who look destined for relegation. The next match they won 1-0 at Stamford Bridge. At the end of the day, football is a crazy old sport and to be profitable you have to attempt to predict what's coming. Easy huh? Have a good week.

Ally Pally

My week has been dominated by the snooker as I had predicted, and it has been a firecracker so far. Comebacks from the big name players such as Robertson, Trump and Selby was the theme from the last 16,   and the top 5 in the world all made it to the quarter finals to make it a thrilling tournament in store. I had a little interest on the winners market by dutching the four favourites, so I was pleased to see them all come through (just about). I've layed off a bit of my liability now but the odds are all still fairly long because no big name has left the tournament yet. I also had a £5 bet on Murphy to win on the fixed odds market (to qualify for a free bet elsewhere) which I have partially layed off, hence the large liability on him:

Over in the football world, the biggest move of the week has been QPR's relegation odds. They did well to secure a point against Spurs, although I watched the match and must say they were abysmal on the attack, but their transfer activity, or at least the rumours surrounding them, have seen their odds jump from 1.55 to 1.65 for relegation without touching a ball. I topped up at 1.57 when I heard about Remy, and now M'Vila is rumoured although apparently he isn't too keen. 'Arry the wheeler dealer trying to work his magic once more. At the other end of the table, United and City got through their weekend unscathed, proving once again that this season is going to be all about them. United remain at 1.38 for the title, and I have now decided to get involved in laying United. They have a tough month or two to come, despite their big lead, as they will be focused on their huge matches with Real Madrid in February. 

Apart from that though I'm off to Ally Pally myself tomorrow, hopefully for a top day of snooker. Have a good day people, I leave you with a blatant lie from Old 'Arry: 

The Betfair Masters 2013

The Masters starts this week and regular users of this blog will know that I enjoy a good snooker tournament from time to time. This one I am particularly excited about though, as I have tickets to one of the quarter finals which will be my first time going to watch any form of snooker. Some may say they couldn't think of anything worse, but what do they know?

In terms of betting, the favourite going into Friday is snooker's new darling Judd Trump at 5.3 (9/2) with Betfair. It is an interesting price up for Trump, who crashed out in the first round at the last ranking event (UK Championships) to world number 50 Mark Joyce, although he did win the International Championship back in November. Since Ronnie O'Sullivan's recent sabbatical, Trump appears to have taken the mantle of snooker's exciting bad boy, or 'full time playboy' as his Twitter bio used to read. A key feature of the O'Sullivan reign was unpredictability on the table, yet he was frequently a lowed priced favourite for each tournament, mainly because of his name. This was the case even as he began to slip down the rankings in recent seasons, and I can't help but feel this is already beginning to happen to Trump. He is, of course, the world number 2, but at these prices I do not think I would like to back him, especially with his unpredictability as a relative rookie to the game. 

The second favourite some way behind him is world number 1 and UK Championship 2012 winner Mark Selby at 7.8 (7/1). This seems a somewhat reserved price for the world leader and this is presumably down to his lackluster win at the UK Championship. He managed to dig deep and claw back wins rather than sweep away all in his path with slick snooker, but this should still not be underestimated as a good ranking title. Having been out with a neck injury before this it is certainly an admirable achievement to recover and reclaim his number 1 spot, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a big improvement in his play at The Masters. The 7.8 therefore looks like quite a decent price.

Due to the talent which has come through in recent years, snooker has become a bit like Formula 1 in that it is difficult for one player to dominate all the events. So far this season there has been 5 world ranking events, and 5 different winners (Ricky Walden, Barry Hawkins, John Higgins, Judd Trump and Mark Selby). Additionally, no one has won the 'triple crown' (The UK Championship, the Masters, and the World Championship) since 2002/3. Despite the fact that The Masters is not a ranking event, it is still seen as extremely prestigious in the Snooker circuit, and I am sure the £175,000 winners prize helps too. This is shown by the recent winners of the tournament, as Ding Junhui is the only to have won it since 2004 other than O'Sullivan/Selby/Robertson/Higgins.

This leaves the tournament rather open with any of the 'big players' looking to take the title, and the betting markets mark up Robertson and Higgins (both 8.4 or 15/2) as completing the top 4 favourites. There appears little to choose between these 4, and dutching them would give you odds of 1.8 (4/5), with the option of trading your position on Betfair throughout the tournament. If you fancied adding in world number 4 and UK Championship runner up Shaun Murphy at 12 for a less ambitious punt, you would get odds of 1.5 (1/2). Due to the way the draw has fallen, Robertson, Higgins, Selby and Trump could theoretically be the 4 semi-finalists in the tournament, so dutching could be an interesting option to take. Naturally I expect there to be a shock along the way, but the point is none of these 4 will be knocking each other out in the early rounds. 

Essentially this competition, like most of snooker's tournaments, is up for grabs. If you are someone who enjoys a more risky and money chasing bet, then I would suggest last year's runner-up Shaun Murphy to win at 12 (11/1). As number 4 in the world and also runner-up in the UK Championships, playing some superb snooker along the way, I think he is fairly overpriced this time out. Otherwise though, sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

2012 Review

In keeping with the tradition on this blog (and by that I mean I have done it once), this post will feature a round up of my progress over the last year. I will admit that I have skim read a lot of my posts from the last 12 months as I needed a bit of reminding about what I was up to this time last year! 2012 was a good year for me on the whole however, as I completed my first full season of trading in good profit, and that has continued into this season.

The first few months of last year I was attempting to continue where I had left off in 2011, by trading each week and looking to take a profit close to the target I had set myself. I was mainly focused on developing my own systems, and I took to making spreadsheets and detailing the trades I made in order to see which was proving the most profitable for me. This was a good move as it is something I still stick to today, and not just when trading, in order to keep my dealings as organised as possible. These months didn't really feature a heavy amount of trading however, not compared to 2011 anyway, mainly due to a lack of funds and a lack of time, as my university year was coming to an end. All the while however, I was keeping an eye on the outright markets and plotting my strategy for the following season. May came and I finished the season in a good amount of profit, something I was extremely pleased with given that it was my first year attempting to do so properly.

The summer months were brilliant for sport. The Euros, Wimbledon and then of course the Olympics all over a few months. I continued trading on a smaller scale over these months, taking a profit from the Euros but not really dabbling in the other sports. This is something which I feel I have really kicked from my game in 2012: gambling on unfamiliar sports. On the whole, I have only traded football and snooker, two sports which I feel comfortable with. Betting needlessly on other sports had cost me a fair amount of money in the past, so I am pleased this appears to now be behind me. I did even have a lucky dabble in the manager markets but this was a one off and not something which I could really repeat. July was a momentous month as it saw the year anniversary of the blog, and a proud moment for me as I had wondered whether blogging would be a fad which I would just forget about after a while.

The new season arrived in August and I embarked on my new strategy, one which I hope I will be able to continue for many years. I won't go into detail here on how it is going because I did so in my last post, so please refer to that if you are interested. On the blogging side of things, the blog has evolved to cover things other than my own personal journey by looking at the markets, the teams and players, as well as bets from various bookmakers. This has been a conscious effort as when I read blogs I am more interested in general betting chat than the personal experiences of individuals. This is not to say that personal experiences are boring however, I think the best blogs I read are ones which integrate personal experiences with context from the betting world too.

One thing which has not had too much of a mention this year is matched betting. I have exacerbated the free bets on offer to me, with the exception of the odd reload free bet, so I have moved on to teaching/advising friends and family on how to match bet. This has provided me with a decent sized regular income (at least by my student standards), which has allowed me to generate capital for my trading and live less like a student this year. I have many more 'customers' lined up as well, so this should continue for some time into the new year.

In terms of the blog, it continues to grow and I have almost reached 15,000 hits after four consecutive months of over 1000 views (the first time this has ever happened). December 2012 was my best ever in terms of pageviews with 1418, so long may this upward trend continue!

My plans for 2013 are simple: to keep calm and pass Berbatov the ball. Oh wait, no, wrong one. My actual plan is just to continue as normal, keeping things simple and tidy with no need for drastic changes. I have learned a great deal over the last year, but I am still eager to learn more. I will continue to follow the markets, tweaking my trades here and there and if I finish with a profit this season I will be a very pleased man. I will graduate from university in June (hopefully) and I would very much like to go into marketing for a bookmaker or exchange. I applied for the Sky Bet marketing graduate scheme a couple of months ago but I was rejected, presumably because I have nothing which relates to marketing on my CV! If anyone reading works in such a department (at any firm), some work experience in the summer would be much appreciated! Otherwise, the marketing department of every bookmaker can expect a request for experience at some stage this year!

So that was my year, and my plans for this year also. I would like to thank everyone who has been reading over 2012, it is very much appreciated. I hope you will all continue to follow my journey in 2013. Happy New Year.

Season Half Way Point - How's It Going?

Seeing as we are 19 matches through the Barclays Premier League season I thought I would do a review of my trading, and bring you up to date with my positions thus far. Firstly, as the section to your left tells you, I had intended on attempting to trade the markets each week to make a modest £500 in order to cover any losses elsewhere. I never really anticipated needing to 'cover my losses' though, which is quite handy considering my trading has been rather poor these last few months! I have made a profit of just over £70 but it has been quite inconsistent profit, due to poor trading or lack of trading each weekend. I realised the other day that I have been quite poor at showing P+Ls this season, particularly compared to last year, but this is mainly due to lack of activity, or the P+Ls being distorted due to matched betting. I am also trying to move away from that side of the blog and have therefore decided to withdraw the P+L from the site. I originally had it up more as a record for myself than anyone else, and also to encourage myself to report every loss with my readers, but I don't really need it for either of those purposes anymore, so it is getting the chop! Aside from trading I have made around £170 from matched betting since August, so things are moving quite smoothly, albeit at a slow pace!

Now on to the part I have been focusing most on this season: the 'outrights'. It's difficult to place an exact P+L on my trades as a lot of them are still in motion, but my expert conclusion is: it is going alright. To expand on this point I will show you all of my moves over the last few months and explain how they went.

The best trade so far. Top two selections backed at start of year and after Chelsea's collapse both prices went below 3 making an easy trade out. Since United have gone ahead I have layed the low price of 1.86 on the top selection, and backed City/United at 5.7, as can probably be deduced from the picture. £175 initially wagered, if cashed out now total profit would be £78.

Layed Chelsea at 2.2 for £121 shortly before their collapse and traded out at 2.9. They went as high as 6.8 during the sacking of Di Matteo however, meaning I could have taken a much higher profit. I was a tad premature to trade out of this one.

Perhaps with the previous trade in mind, I did the opposite of this one and missed the opportune moment to trade out. They traded as high as 1.8 after I layed at 1.27, but recent form has seen their price drop again and I only managed to trade out £15 at the top price. Will stay in for a bit longer, if I cashed out now I would take a profit of £18.

The Chelsea loss was made over the summer so that can be ignored. The Arsenal bet I struggled with hugely, as the form of the sides listed here are so unpredictable I found it hard to manage. I think the trick with this one is to not look at the fixture lists, but to just lay low and wait for the inevitable dip in form from either team. Total profit £15 from risk of £186.

This was a fairly simple one, a back at 1.733 for £200 and a lay at 1.399 after just a few weeks. I initially left the profit on Spurs to finish top 6, but thought it best to spread it later on, especially at low odds.

Fulham I chose to back from the beginning, and after their good start to the season I had hoped I could trade out. Liquidity was a problem here though and I only managed to get half of my liability out, choosing to stay in for a bit longer. Their form however, dropped, and if I was to trade out now I would take a scratch. I will stay in for now though. Secondly we have West Brom, who had a brilliant start to the season and I chose to lay them at 1.283 anticipating the inevitable dip. It came and they went up to 1.65 briefly before regaining form and now they are back to 1.31. On this occasion, I mixed greed with their fixture list and decided to stay in for a bit longer for a better price. I will wait for a bit longer as I don't imagine they can continue this all season. If I traded now I would take another scratch.

Another fairly simple one, I backed Everton at 2.388 for £100 and Liverpool's woeful form has made this quite simple. I am in the process of trading out, I just need a bit more liquidity. 

There are a few here so I'll keep it simple. Stoke: I was wrong, they have been superb, 100% loss. At least it is only £12. Norwich I really thought would actually go down, but was wrong again (so it seems so far anyway). Luckily all I needed was their poor start to take a £31 profit from an £82 stake. Similarly I backed Reading for relegation early on, but was a bit premature in trading out on this one, taking only a £10 profit on each outcome. Since, I have layed Reading at 1.29 as I think they have the potential to see a higher price before the end of the season. With QPR I made a big investment and so far it hasn't paid off. I may wait until the end of the transfer window before deciding what to do. Layed at 1.872, if I traded now I would have a £32 loss. With Sunderland I made the decision to back at odds of 4.7 a few weeks back, and it is now looking like a foolish decision. If I traded now I would take a £33 loss.

As I said before I thought Norwich would be down there, and their good start gave me the chance to square up here, but I missed the chance to green all round. I could have taken a £14 profit on all outcomes but I thought the price would go lower. I was wrong.

Poor decision to get involved with this league. I was taken by last year's outcome and this year just isn't turning out the same way. I chose to take a loss early on as I didn't think it would get much better, and so far that has turned out to be wise.

Current balance 'in-play': £456 of the £500 bank.

Best call of the season so far: Backing United/City, City/United in the straight forecast.

Worst call of the season so far: Stoke to be relegated. 

Well there you have it. That is how it is going for me this season, I hope I wasn't too long-winded for you. In the coming weeks I will be compiling some data on who still has who to play, and then taking up a few new positions based on this. I will also most likely do a 2012 review in the next week or two, just as I did last year for 2011. Based on what I have provided here, I would say that I am very pleased with the start I have made to the season, and feel that my target of £500 profit is within reach. Should I fall short however, I will be happy as long as I make a decent profit on my maiden season trading in this way.

Happy New Year everyone, I am looking forward to 2013 already.